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Winter 2021/2022 January Thread


AMZ8990
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1. Ensemble modeling overnight actually improved in the LR - colder and less SER on both the 0z CMCand 0z GFS. We may be able to carry seasonal or even BN temps through the first week of February now. For now the GFS carries the most weight for me.   IF that is the new pattern on both of those models, we can work with that.

2. Of note, the system that trended SE for tomorrow...the precip shield now makes into the first layer of E TN counties.  Shouldn't be much, but wouldn't be surprised to see snow in the air in both the mountains and maybe in the valleys just next to the mountains.  While that shouldn't affect most of us, it does show that modeling was likely in error with the far envelope of eastern solutions.  Something to tuck away and remember for the next storm.  That storm is likely to affect much more of NC than shown a couple of days ago.  The NW trend is legit.

3. MRX has released a statement or next Monday night into Tuesday....

For late Monday night through Tuesday night, deterministic models
from the GFS and ECMWF are coming in closer agreement in phasing a
little better with a northern stream jet moving across the mid-
Atlantic states and a southern stream system moving across the Gulf
coast states. The surface low remains fairly far south across the
northern Gulf. However, enough phasing of the two systems to spread
light precipitation into the region.

GEFS and ECMWF Ensemble are in agreement with around 0.25 inch or
less of QPF for this event especially south and eastern areas.
Ensembles also show a light snowfall across much of the region,
especially for the higher elevations.

The main features of the system that will be watched closely are the
following:

1) How much phasing occurs between the northern and southern stream
energy.  The more phasing the greater the QPF and potential of
heavier snowfall amounts, especially higher elevations.

2) Vertical temperature profile/Top-Down precipitation type.
Currently, the deterministic models hang onto a boundary layer warm
nose limiting snowfall in the valley.

3) Strength of the arctic high building into the plain states.

Will add the potential of wintry mix/snowfall within the HWO.

For Wednesday and Thursday, surface ridging builds back into the
Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians with dry conditions.
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4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

We have a flizzard downtown. Weird that it didn’t move in, it just developed

This looks very similar to how that band just formed out of nowhere yesterday afternoon. Direction is a little different-that one moved S/SW and this one seems to be slowly creeping NE going to be interesting to see where it goes.
.

 

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28 minutes ago, Reb said:

Roads were white on 66 in Kodak a few min ago 

That is wild.  Wonder if it is just squeezing out moisture from yesterday due to orographic lift or if there is some connection to the incoming storm? The 6z RGEM sneaks some precip into the western foothills this evening.  

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33 minutes ago, Reb said:

Roads were white on 66 in Kodak a few min ago 

Just went and checked some higher res modeling....Interestingly, the WRF-ARW and 3K NAM have some super light precip hanging around in your area this morning.  Super faint on the modeling.  Looks like it is just yesterday's system moving out.  Very cool though!!!  Congratulations on the bonus snow.

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5 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Sevier Co is always stealing all our fun.

6bc40658b379f09bb090a8eb073d00aa.png


.

Well it was moving NE but it sank SE and decided to pay a visit to Dolly. And that Bulls Gap snow shower was that legit? I mean it’s like it went poof as soon as it started.

 

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Well it was moving NE but it sank SE and decided to pay a visit to Dolly. And that Bulls Gap snow shower was that legit? I mean it’s like it went poof as soon as it started.
 

That’s a great question… anyone have thoughts on this?




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MRX HWO…

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A storm system will move across the Gulf coast states and spread
precipitation into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians
Tuesday and Tuesday night. A wintry mix of snow, sleet and rain is
expected with light snow accumulations possible, mainly across the
higher elevations. There is a lot of uncertainty on the exact path
and strength of this system. Please stay tuned to further weather
updates


.

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I won't be shocked to continue to see light precip over Eastern TN through the day. Especially with this look in the mid levels.  As the storm progresses we may actually get an hour or two of semi-decent returns over the eastern counties bordering NC as the storm begins to crank.

 

This was so close to a much larger event if that shortwave would tilt negative. 

B83D0497-CE95-4602-814E-3E13A92A8D65.jpeg.6e304c52f2bccebb73d033e4fc6e9b1f.jpeg

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3 hours ago, bearman said:

image.thumb.png.9ec82b9a5a38e8e4b5611e98a801c1cc.pngHeavy snow shower near bulls Gap.  That is putting down some snow.

 

3 hours ago, Jed33 said:

Well it was moving NE but it sank SE and decided to pay a visit to Dolly. And that Bulls Gap snow shower was that legit? I mean it’s like it went poof as soon as it started.

 

I am pretty sure the Bulls Gap returns were not convection but an animal.   I've noticed the classic "ring" around this time in that exact area typical of insects/birds.

(Another benefit of tier 2 RadarScope. Archive and my own custom color tables)

CCEE844F-DCEB-4970-AFC2-E61357E649B6.thumb.gif.92cfa9f6ed3fc3297deae0eb4184c36f.gif

 

The CC also indicates extreme differences in size of objects. Although this forum isn't letting me upload it.

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