KPITSnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: Yeah, just looked at it and I’d take it, no questions asked. Bad news though it is a big step back from previous runs and everything is starting to show that dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: Bad news though it is a big step back from previous runs and everything is starting to show that dry slot. It’s not far off of 12z. Just not as good as 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 We're fine. Remember, 48 hours out. Wobble baby wobble baby. We know the model doesn't have it perfect at this point. Still a lot of time to figure out the complexities of this system and figure out the exact placement and length of that dry slot. We are alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 GFS looks good. 8-12 inches I’ll take it. Canadian...next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: We're fine. Remember, 48 hours out. Wobble baby wobble baby. We know the model doesn't have it perfect at this point. Still a lot of time to figure out the complexities of this system and figure out the exact placement and length of that dry slot. We are alright. This doesn’t seem wobbles though. Feels like getting the dry slot or hours of mixing issues across the region. If it was only wobbling between snow totals I’d think it be less stressful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Some good news on the GFS. I was looking at some of the moisture profiles at the different levels of the atmosphere. The dry slot is showing up, but the atmosphere is still pretty saturated. Easy to overcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, MikeB_01 said: Some good news on the GFS. I was looking at some of the moisture profiles at the different levels of the atmosphere. The dry slot is showing up, but the atmosphere is still pretty saturated. Easy to overcome That’s my confusion. It’s saturated on all the models, but this dry slot is appearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, Ahoff said: This doesn’t seem wobbles though. Feels like getting the dry slot or hours of mixing issues across the region. If it was only wobbling between snow totals I’d think it be less stressful. GFS had no mixing issue. We have definitely seen the placement of the dry slot and the deform band move around a little today. The NAM took the deform band from us to Cleveland in four runs today. Can easily come on back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Ron has the dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 We would normally kill to be in the 7-12 range 36 hours out from a storm. Let’s enjoy it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, dj3 said: We would normally kill to be in the 7-12 range 36 hours out from a storm. Let’s enjoy it Is the 7-12 range on KDKA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Ahoff said: Is the 7-12 range on KDKA? Yea was most of Allegheny county except south East. Dry slot was in westmoreland according to his forecast map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: GFS had no mixing issue. We have definitely seen the placement of the dry slot and the deform band move around a little today. The NAM took the deform band from us to Cleveland in four runs today. Can easily come on back Aren’t we getting to the point where models like GFS and Euro shouldn’t be used and we turn to the short range models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, dj3 said: Yea was most of Allegheny county except south East. Dry slot was in westmoreland according to his forecast map Did he talk about the dry slot? Or was it just on the model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Does anyone know if the storm is matching what the models had for it in the Plains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: Did he talk about the dry slot? Or was it just on the model? No not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Aren’t we getting to the point where models like GFS and Euro shouldn’t be used and we turn to the short range models. Getting close. 24-36 is good time to start looking at the higher res models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 We need a small shift east 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Canadian is great. near a foot for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, MikeB_01 said: Canadian is great. near a foot for everyone. 9 minutes ago, dj3 said: We need a small shift east but yes we could use a slight east shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 00z Ukie is solid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: 00z Ukie is solid. Supposed to be the best tracked model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Pretty much all models show that dryslot feature, where exactly it ends up and how extreme yet to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, Mailman said: Welp.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 If we get less than 6 inches from this it is an absolutely epic fail. We won't get this track again anytime soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Keeping it in perspective as long as we have a WSW and get 6+ I’m happy. How often do we get out of a WWA? I’ll take it for sure Would I like 12+ For sure. But if you told me on 1/4 we would get a 6”+’storm we would all take it. cheers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I wonder why the NWS keeps calling it "snow showers" instead of "snow". I would think when the average person sees snow showers that they won't take this as seriously. Right now, they're saying 6 to 11 inches in the watch.Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Well if we are in the dry slot this early. That means we should be good come storm time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 So dry slot huh. Maybe we get suprise and thr low is either further west or east and it misses us.My parents just told be careful tomorrow news is predicting 12 inches. Also if we wanna be positive Bernie just tweeted that nothing has changed and the upper low is still in the same place fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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