meatwad Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 Colder than expected today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Colder than expected today This pleases me. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 DT has been bad historically here. Heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, Mailman said: DT has been bad historically here. Heh. Hilarious considering the NAM just put out 30+ on Erie. He has 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 The rgem looks solid 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Still dry slot for a few hours on the GFS but still a good outcome. I'm starting to wonder if a brief dryslot is inevitable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Still dry slot for a few hours on the GFS but still a good outcome. I'm starting to wonder if a brief dryslot is inevitable?It is inevitable for the evolution of the storm. Where it goes and how long it stays around will change totals. Lots of models have the dry slot to the south and east of AGC. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, MikeB_01 said: It is inevitable for the evolution of the storm. Where it goes and how long it stays around will change totals. Lots of models have the dry slot to the south and east of AGC. . if we dry slot but still get a foot that would be amazing. If we avoid the dryslot or it is being over done by the models I will hold to the idea that I think we can see 12-18 type totals here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 19/20 of those are solid. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: 19/20 of those are solid. . number 7 is the only one. I'd take number 10 and be done for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, Rd9108 said: number 7 is the only one. I'd take number 10 and be done for the winter. Agreed. We could start summer on January 19th and i would be very pleased Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 15z run of SREFs up to 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The CMC gives nearly 40MM of liquid equivalent. Which is like 1.6 inches. Would be pushing 15-20 inches there haha. Lets do it. Also, can anyone actually decipher those damn contours on the GEFS maps? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The CMC gives nearly 40MM of liquid equivalent. Which is like 1.6 inches. Would be pushing 15-20 inches there haha. Lets do it. Also, can anyone actually decipher those damn contours on the GEFS maps?I know purple is 6 and pink is 12. But distinguishing them on those maps is a different language . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 What’s the closest analogy to this storm? Honestly I’ve been following storms since the accuweather forums and I just can’t remember one that has this much QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ecanem said: What’s the closest analogy to this storm? Honestly I’ve been following storms since the accuweather forums and I just can’t remember one that has this much QPF here are the top 3 analogs on CIPS. This is based on the 12z NAM at hour 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: here are the top 3 analogs on CIPS. This is based on the 12z NAM at hour 36 January ‘94 is looking very similar to the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ahoff said: January ‘94 is looking very similar to the models. That was a great storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ahoff said: January ‘94 is looking very similar to the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ahoff said: January ‘94 is looking very similar to the models. I was 11. Probably thought it was a minor storm compared to 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ecanem said: I was 11. Probably thought it was a minor storm compared to 93. I remember think foot plus snowstorms were normal. We had several of them from the 92-96 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, Mailman said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: haha hopefully it misses wide right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 minor dry slot but these models are relentless on our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Want that bumped a little SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: haha hopefully it misses wide right 50 miles south east, we are looking at 15 inches, and that really isn't an exaggeration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, KPITSnow said: 50 miles south east, we are looking at 15 inches, and that really isn't an exaggeration. not at all. And most of the other models already have us there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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