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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion


meatwad
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49 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Honestly almost everything outside the ICON is a winner right now 

The agreement among the models right now is really solid in terms of track (pending Euro). Starting to get cautiously optimistic, if we are still looking good tomorrow at this time confidence really starts to go up and I'd think Winter Storm Watches go up as well. Even the ICON isn't that far off and really it's solution can't be discounted at this point. GEFS still East, but maybe something with their outdated physics vs GFS OP is getting exploited with this particular setup, either we are getting to the end of ENS usefulness but it would still be nice to see them "catch up" to the operational and other ENS suites.

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1 hour ago, Mailman said:

Canadian is a winner.

It drives the low right up into CNY which gives us a favorable NW flow with a connection to Lake Huron from what I can see, while a little piece of energy ripples through on Monday, another words probably would be a cold / overcast day with persistent light snow. Perfect way to end a Storm.

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The low track seems perfect. Is this more just subsidence between the really good banding just west of the occluded low pressure and the deform band much further west? I would expect a dry slot if this was tracking right over head but it isn't. 

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2 minutes ago, dj3 said:

The low track seems perfect. Is this more just subsidence between the really good banding just west of the occluded low pressure and the deform band much further west? I would expect a dry slot if this was tracking right over head but it isn't. 

Expect a dry slot even if this thing tracks favorably for us. It’s Pittsburgh.

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I think the surface map has a lot going on. BR always say to track the 500 L. If you stick to that rule, this looks like a solid Euro run for us. 

The ULL traveling where it is puts us in a good spot. Maybe the western edge, but i still think we are ok for right now 

Screen Shot 2022-01-13 at 1.35.01 PM.png

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17 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

I think the surface map has a lot going on. BR always say to track the 500 L. If you stick to that rule, this looks like a solid Euro run for us. 

The ULL traveling where it is puts us in a good spot. Maybe the western edge, but i still think we are ok for right now 

Screen Shot 2022-01-13 at 1.35.01 PM.png

Isn't this showing the ULL in west central Virginia, or am I missing something?  That would almost be too far west, if that's the case.

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3 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Isn't this showing the ULL in west central Virginia, or am I missing something?  That would almost be too far west, if that's the case.

That picture shows the ULL in southwestern virginia. I should have also include this one which shows its next move after. Moving into southern (kinda) eastern PA. This is pretty good track for us. Is it 12+? Probably not, but that would be a 6-8" track

Screen Shot 2022-01-13 at 1.35.01 PM.png

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This is the kind of storm the mesoscale models were made for.  I'm waiting for that 36-hour NAM range.  I will say the operationals from the big three have been remarkably consistent since Tuesday.  For a 5/6 day lead that's quite impressive, especially with such a complex system.  Although we also know it's much harder to get an east trend than it is a west trend.

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1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

18z NAM first sign of trouble?

That would be a beat down of all beat downs. Good rates to the east and to the west, but we are in the slot. Ugh..

 

That being said, NAM at 84 hours. I'm not worried yet. We still see that dry slot 24-36 hours, then im worried

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