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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion


meatwad
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5 minutes ago, TimB said:

Just went out and measured about 3.75”.

Yes about 3.5 here. Snow has finally started to lighten up and my temp has gone from 33 to 35. Beautiful site out there with the snow pasted on everything but it is all starting to fall off the trees and power lines. 

I noticed on the HRRR last night that there was a narrow band of 2-4 inches that was showing up on the western flank near the Pa Ohio border. It looks like that band moved about 60 miles east and got us :gun_bandana:

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11 minutes ago, TimB said:

Just went out and measured about 3.75”. Where are all the “they should have issued an advisory” posts?

Probably decided against it since the impact to the roads is less than what the snow totals are, AND there wasn’t one from the start. 

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Just now, Burghblizz said:

Probably decided it since the impact to the roads is less than what the snow totals are, AND there wasn’t one from the start. 

Don’t worry. I’m kidding. It’s 1000x more fun to get these types of events without a headline than with one.

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25 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

RGEM looks good for this weekend. Still need this to hold a few more days.

I fully expect a bullseye for our area on this one. Taking a weekend trip to deep creek so I'll probably miss NW again but only this time NW will be my yard back at home lol.

Its a pretty fast moving system, but I'd expect a period of pretty heavy snow out of it and our area is in the game to get in on that at least as of how things look right now.

Meanwhile the scene outside is still. :snowwindow:

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I haven't been tracking tightly lately but today's event came as a bit of a surprise.  Where's all that mix and rain?

Since today overperformed, I have to imagine we're looking at a similar occurrence this weekend.  Either that or we get plain rain instead.

The flakes this morning, especially, were massive.  Dinner plates. :snowwindow:

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50 minutes ago, jwilson said:

I haven't been tracking tightly lately but today's event came as a bit of a surprise.  Where's all that mix and rain?

Since today overperformed, I have to imagine we're looking at a similar occurrence this weekend.  Either that or we get plain rain instead.

The flakes this morning, especially, were massive.  Dinner plates. :snowwindow:

IMO a muted CAD/SE flow helped everyone (sans the 119 corridor).

A nice example of what our winters would be like without CAD.

 

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Euro too far east, not a bad place to be at this point if we would get a slight west adjustment on the Euro. Regardless we have a good chance at a possible advisory level and maybe even warning if we get lucky.

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I was in Rochester (Beaver County, not New York), this morning, and got 1", measured on the deck of an equipment trailer, between 8 a.m. and 9:30 a.m. The grass was snowy, but pavement was just wet. Drove 1/2 an hour back to our site in Economy, and was surprised to find 2 1/2" on the trucks and trailers parked there.

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5 minutes ago, Digger said:

I was in Rochester (Beaver County, not New York), this morning, and got 1", measured on the deck of an equipment trailer, between 8 a.m. and 9:30 a.m. The grass was snowy, but pavement was just wet. Drove 1/2 an hour back to our site in Economy, and was surprised to find 2 1/2" on the trucks and trailers parked there.

Elevation ?

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27 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Euro too far east, not a bad place to be at this point if we would get a slight west adjustment on the Euro. Regardless we have a good chance at a possible advisory level and maybe even warning if we get lucky.

But what if they warn and then it fails to reach warning level in one neighborhood of the city? What then?

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18z GFS held serve. Also gives an idea of just how cold we could get Sunday morning (7) if we can manage at least partial clearing with a snowpack. Haven’t been into the single digits so late in March since 1993.

GEFS ensemble mean keeps going up too. 6.6” with 81% of members showing a 4” snowfall.

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NAM with a tick SE. Too close for comfort but still a big hit, and a monster storm to our south and east.1EBE63A3-3412-4816-9220-8E5F1D315FA9.jpeg.89d1d9e7c9e98b53f2a84339c1c42359.jpeg

RGEM looks a lot like the NAM with where the heavy stuff lines up but gives us more breathing room on the western fringe.

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NWS official forecast is up to 5.3” but that will surely go down if the models, especially the NAM, are onto something. The 6z was a complete disaster (if you can actually reasonably apply words like “disaster” to not getting much snow).

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2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

This is slowly slipping away. I didn’t have expectations but it would basically put a nice little bow on what has been a fairly awful season. 

Patience 

We've seen these things trend nw a lot of times even down to nowcasting. Let's see where we are at by tomorrow's runs. 

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