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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion


meatwad
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I'm good with some down time from tracking after January.  It was almost constant since New Year's.

At this point I'm chasing the big one and that's about it.  It's been at least six years since we've even sniffed the two-footer, same for places further east of us which seems like a semi-drought given recent climatology.  I don't have high confidence of one occurring this year.  We don't have the right kind of blocking setup.  I would say next year looks slightly more promising with a Nino prediction.

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On 2/7/2022 at 9:07 AM, TimB said:

Last year we had a top ten streak of not hitting 50 degrees (55 days). Today should be the 37th straight day this year and we have a very good shot at tacking on another week. I think we get there by mid-next week.

This is going to age poorly. I’ll be shocked if PIT doesn’t hit 50 today. Already at 46. 

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27 minutes ago, TimB said:

This is going to age poorly. I’ll be shocked if PIT doesn’t hit 50 today. Already at 46. 

Probably an end to the snow cover stat too.

7 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Canadian sucking us back in. Time to get back to model tracking :popcorn::facepalm:

It was technically better that last few storms with the GFS being to far SE at this range giving us more hope so there's that right?

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1 minute ago, TimB said:

Euro is trending toward one of our famous February heatwaves for the second half of next week. Verbatim it’s temps in the 60s and dewpoints pushing 60.

sounds like I'm going golfing 

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59 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

social media sent me. They are saying we are getting a foot of snow this weekend

I'd be fine with a few inches and not being teased by the models to think there will be a massive hit only to have it pull back the last 24 hours.

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4 hours ago, TimB said:

Euro is trending toward one of our famous February heatwaves for the second half of next week. Verbatim it’s temps in the 60s and dewpoints pushing 60.

Honestly, if winter is over I hope we torch in the 50s / 60s / 70s til May. No need to be strung along with an almost good enough pattern. No denying we had a good stretch. Hearing Enso is leaning towards a Nino next winter. 

If we can buck typical late Nina winter climo and keep tracking cold and snow Im all for it. But it looks like tropical forcing is heading into warm phases, PV coupling with the troposphere so cold will get locked up. Could definitely see some much above average temps if that plays out.

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12 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Honestly, if winter is over I hope we torch in the 50s / 60s / 70s til May. No need to be strung along with an almost good enough pattern. No denying we had a good stretch. Hearing Enso is leaning towards a Nino next winter. 

If we can buck typical late Nina winter climo and keep tracking cold and snow Im all for it. But it looks like tropical forcing is heading into warm phases, PV coupling with the troposphere so cold will get locked up. Could definitely see some much above average temps if that plays out.

To an extent I agree. What looked like a promising stretch in February now looks like a shutout pattern.

It’s more the idea that lately, spring here seems to come before the end of February more often than it doesn’t. The February heatwave of 2017 comes to mind, but I’d say even last year we were into spring starting the last week of February, and that was in a good February.

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I’m not sure why everyone is ready to just go to spring. When we get to March, fine because with sun angle you have to get a real monster for a good storm, and 2-4 events just kind of suck and don’t even really accumulate on roads.

 

I do not want a February torch though as it is usually our last best chance at storms, and given that just a few days ago the GFS was signaling a pattern with a bunch of potential and now it looks like a crap sandwich and that winter is basically over outside a March Hail Mary…and if it ends like this it will go down as a really awful winter. 

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59 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I’m not sure why everyone is ready to just go to spring. When we get to March, fine because with sun angle you have to get a real monster for a good storm, and 2-4 events just kind of suck and don’t even really accumulate on roads.

 

I do not want a February torch though as it is usually our last best chance at storms, and given that just a few days ago the GFS was signaling a pattern with a bunch of potential and now it looks like a crap sandwich and that winter is basically over outside a March Hail Mary…and if it ends like this it will go down as a really awful winter. 

Even good winters end like this these days. Look at last year.

Also, it’s too late to salvage February. The end of the month is already almost in GFS/GEFS range without many signs of the torch letting up significantly after it arrives next week.

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2 hours ago, TimB said:

To an extent I agree. What looked like a promising stretch in February now looks like a shutout pattern.

It’s more the idea that lately, spring here seems to come before the end of February more often than it doesn’t. The February heatwave of 2017 comes to mind, but I’d say even last year we were into spring starting the last week of February, and that was in a good February.

But winter usually returns in March to an extent.

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Seems like the consensus is that any sustained cold and winter pattern is breaking down. Doesn't mean we can't get a temporary breakdown for a few days and get a decent storm.Also the models are all over the place for long range anyway so it's hard to even trust them.

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As soon as the groundhog saw his shadow, we knew it had to be over, right? :P

I'm fine with an early spring.  January exceeded my expectations to some degree, and I never really expected some blockbuster, wall-to-wall winter.  March is always a wildcard, too.  You never know what might happen.

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