dj3 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Looked way warmer despite not much of a shift in track. Let’s see what Reginald has to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 From a PA met on USAwx forum I'm assuming this is overdone, but the potential for warming aloft is definitely there. Data assimilation will be key since a couple degrees difference will be extremely important here for any kind of mid level warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Rd9108 said: From a PA met on USAwx forum I'm assuming this is overdone, but the potential for warming aloft is definitely there. Data assimilation will be key since a couple degrees difference will be extremely important here for any kind of mid level warm layer. We all know how this ends. We’ve watched this movie many, many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Yuck... sloppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Ok, lll say it. We are going to get screwed in some way. It just sucks that for the MA to get huge storms they don’t seem to need to have an absolutely ideal set up like we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 At least the dry slot is less? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Yeah still a decent thump but man would that be a sloppy storm. The mid levels warm a lot and screw over basically all of PA. Is this the NAM being the NAM or is it on to something... Probably the NAM over doing mid level warmth. NAM clearly has that dual low structure and that's only going to exacerbate funneling warm air in if it hangs on to long. Either way, I wouldn't put much weight on that being its 60+ hours on the NAM. Half the time I think it shouldn't really even run past 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, MikeB_01 said: At least the dry slot is less? That’s the other thing that’s a bit wonky about that run. The dry slot encompasses most of WV at hour 63, then is completely filled in on the next panel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: That’s the other thing that’s a bit wonky about that run. The dry slot encompasses most of WV at hour 63, then is completely filled in on the next panel? Yep. I think that this is an insanely complicated storm. Multiple centers at different levels that are all fluid in their reactions to each other. I think the model have done incredible when finding the general placement of the storm, but have really struggled to figure out the temp profile and timing of transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 NAM likely isn’t right. Mid level low is far enough SE that it’s not going to flood like that. If it does, we are going to have a helluva snow cone Monday Morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I can say one positive thing about this storm. Once it is over, my boss and my wife will be much happier... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 26 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Ok, lll say it. We are going to get screwed in some way. It just sucks that for the MA to get huge storms they don’t seem to need to have an absolutely ideal set up like we do. Stop your negativity you're giving bad ju ju to the storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Maybe some sleet but here's the RGEM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: Maybe some sleet but here's the RGEM I feel like the rgem owes us one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS still gets us to double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS looks fine. 12-15” city and points North and West. More mixing south and east, but still warning snows there too before any crap. That 119 corridor looks most susceptible. Seems to extend the backend a little too. A post storm snow globe day Monday would hit the spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: GFS looks fine. 12-15” city and points North and West. More mixing south and east, but still warning snows there too before any crap. That 119 corridor looks most susceptible. Seems to extend the backend a little too. A post storm snow globe day Monday would hit the spot. GFS / Euro are still the way go to until tomorrow 12z,after that we are getting into 24-36 hours of onset so short range models start to gain skill. To much anxiety started brewing from looking at short term models at the end of the runs. Not to say they don't sometimes sniff something out, but until agreement with other guidance no reason to get down on this storm. Definitely looks like light snow on and off Monday. Should get a good flow off the lakes + wrap around + NWS mentioned of a secondary trough moving through should = that post storm snow globe look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Latest NWS discussion says 7-9 for the metro, with the mention of the possible dry slot decreasing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 A foot of snow with a little sleet mixed in is fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Can't say I hold a lot of faith in the CMC; however, it has been consistent with those big totals. 12z might be the biggest yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Mailman said: Can't say I hold a lot of faith in the CMC; however, it has been consistent with those big totals. 12z might be the biggest yet. Yea almost identical to rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Latest NWS discussion says 7-9 for the metro, with the mention of the possible dry slot decreasing that. Good news with this discussion is that they seem fairly confident in that warm air not making it as far north as the metro. Staying in WV and Laurels 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: Good news with this discussion is that they seem fairly confident in that warm air not making it as far north as the metro. Staying in WV and Laurels But how many times have we heard this haha? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: But how many times have we heard this haha? What did I tell you about the negativity. Leave it until after the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: But how many times have we heard this haha? 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: What did I tell you about the negativity. Leave it until after the storm I'm going all in. Wish casting 12+ for the entire area. Lets Go 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Watching the weather channel now. I miss how the extended forecast used to have that BIG snowflake when it was going to snow. The extended now just says pm snow showers lol. That’s when you new a big storm was coming 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 15 minutes ago, Mailman said: Can't say I hold a lot of faith in the CMC; however, it has been consistent with those big totals. 12z might be the biggest yet. I'm with you on that lol, but it's not the lousy model it used to be. It's had several upgrades and does pretty well on scoring at least at 500mb. The reason it looks so good the dryslot issues stay well south and east and it hammers us in the deform band the GFS and Euro have further NW. So from that perspective it probably represents our high bar if everything works out perfectly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, meatwad said: Insane gradient. But honestly, this seems to be close to what most think. Maybe a little higher in total, but pretty good on the distribution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 GEM looks good 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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