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Possible severe weather Monday


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Much of west central IL has very poor coverage on Verizon network so if that's your data source be aware of slow or non-existent data coverage. Macomb to Quincy and quincy to Jacksonville and jacksonville to havana and havana to Macomb is almost complete dead zone. AT&T is better. US Cellular is best.

 

If anyone is chasing and wants a co-pilot that knows most of west central IL fairly well I'm game. I live just west of Peoria.

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System almost looks like a TC on satellite. Clearing is confined to a narrow corridor E-W, but storms should be moving almost due northward. Clearing starting to nose into areas near/east of Keokuk, IA.

Edit: 15Z HRRR has the mother lode tracking through eastern Lee/western DeKalb Counties (IL) around 20Z. Confirms my hunch attm that Rochelle is as good a jumping off point as any.

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So not going at all, or staying closer nearby?

Given how things have evolved over the past several hours, I don’t see it worth me going anymore.

Will obviously continue to monitor things, especially more locally for later.


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First tor warning of today's episode.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO  
102 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2021  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHWESTERN BOND COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  EASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  
  SOUTHEASTERN MACOUPIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  
  SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 145 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 102 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED NEAR MARINE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
  MARINE AROUND 105 PM CDT.  
  WORDEN AND ALHAMBRA AROUND 115 PM CDT.  
  LIVINGSTON AROUND 120 PM CDT.  
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
STAUNTON, MOUNT OLIVE, SORENTO, TAYLOR SPRINGS, LITCHFIELD, HILLSBORO  
AND SCHRAM CITY.  
  

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E NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  WEST CENTRAL TAZEWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  NORTH CENTRAL MASON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 415 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 350 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER HAVANA, MOVING  
  NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  
  SOUTHEASTERN FULTON, WEST CENTRAL TAZEWELL AND NORTH CENTRAL MASON  
  COUNTIES, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... LIVERPOOL, LITTLE  
  AMERICA, GOOFY RIDGE AND CHATAUQUA PARK.  
  

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Looks like a corridor of slight risk worthy activity will verify across C IL into E IN. Today performed about as good as it could given the situation.

If there had been more clearing, which only would have been possible if that initial axis of rain/t’storms didn’t exist, it definitely would have been a more significant event.

That SPC mega size 5% tor area from previous outlooks was still horrendous.


.

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Confirming a fat funnel near benson

Nice bag.

I ended up not going out in the end, which was a reasonable decision. The isolated mini supercells were too few in quantity in the end, and only two produced.

The QLCS has actually been the bigger story surprisingly, with numerous MV’s embedded in the line. However, there has been an overall lack of reports of any mode of severe associated with it.
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4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Nice bag.

I ended up not going out in the end, which was a reasonable decision. The isolated mini supercells were too few in quantity in the end, and only two produced.

The QLCS has actually been the bigger story surprisingly, with numerous MV’s embedded in the line. However, there have been an overall lack of reports of any mode of severe associated with it.


.

This sounds like spin IMO

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Couple of stills from the tornado warned cell near McNabb, Illinois this evening.  Around 5:30-5:45 pm.  Came close to producing but became wrapped in rain from my location so couldn’t see if it ever did.  

816BEC19-BB12-428B-BFF0-4C71A3A78919.jpeg

44569F88-9329-44C1-B4ED-685CE22ABE6F.jpeg

818C0CB1-6219-49AB-953B-2B44483F32F3.jpeg

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