NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022

[powderfreak]

Looks like some good squalls with 2”+ at the mountain and this shot from town posted by AJ’s shows accumulations down in Stowe village.

 

[#NoPoles]

Had a good squall drop about .2inches 

I'm trying to log accums for Alex. The first event dropped 3 inches, then the upslope dropped an inch. Then we hit 60 and rained yesterday. Today so far about .2inches

[#NoPoles]

And a now a graupel squall

 

Waiting for the kitchen sink to drop out of the sky

[Patriot21]

Not home but got a picture of my kids playing outside in snow, grass just about covered

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, Patriot21 said:

Not home but got a picture of my kids playing outside in snow, grass just about covered

Yeah my wife just sent a photo that looks like over an inch at least, ha.  At least it’s white.

[Patriot21]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah my wife just sent a photo that looks like over an inch at least, ha.  At least it’s white.

I agree, looks much better with the blanket of white. I work at a place where there is snow and ice year round indoors, temperatures down to -60F or even lower. But there is something different about seeing it outside.

[PhineasC]

19 minutes ago, Patriot21 said:

I agree, looks much better with the blanket of white. I work at a place where there is snow and ice year round indoors, temperatures down to -60F or even lower. But there is something different about seeing it outside.

Do you work in an ice cream factory?

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.62” L.E.

We picked up a bit more accumulation today, but the sky has been clearing and there’s not much on radar, so that may be the last of this system.

[Patriot21]

12 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Do you work in an ice cream factory?

Haha no but that was funny and got me laughing. I'm a federal employee, work at the cold regions research lab in Hanover, NH. It's run by the Army Corps of Engineers, lots of research experiments relating to the earth's cold climates.

[bwt3650]

20 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 

 

Was it seriously just six days ago that you were so optimistic?  It feels like it was weeks ago at this point.

I hadn’t realized that people were visualizing a “cold” pattern for the rest of the month – to me it just looked like it was going to be active, with our typical November snow chances.  I’d think for a consistently cold pattern, we’d need to see a persistent trough in the area, and I don’t recall the models ever showing that.

We’ve definitely had the snows – multiple systems at this point, and the models suggest there are more to come.  I’d say there are at least three more storms with possible snow in the models? – the back side of this current system, something near the beginning of next week, and then something near the end of next week.

PF has pointed out how it’s not looking like a great period for snowmaking down to base elevations, so that’s obviously tough on the resorts if they’re planning to open top-to-bottom.  I’m more interested in getting out for natural snow turns though, so every storm with snow is an opportunity for that.  I’ve been a bit too busy the past couple of weeks to venture out for turns, and it felt like it was still just a bit thin down low, but I’m definitely watching each storm that comes through for the next possibility.

Part of it is just me aching to get the resorts open and out there.  I know what late November/early December usually look like, but being this close, it’s an emotional response; overly optimistic based on a few model runs, then the crash when I’m brought back to reality.  Most places need the guns to crank more than the natural to get things rolling and when pf starts getting pessimistic about that, I listen.

Just need to get out there and get some turns in to take the edge off.

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, Patriot21 said:

Haha no but that was funny and got me laughing. I'm a federal employee, work at the cold regions research lab in Hanover, NH. It's run by the Army Corps of Engineers, lots of research experiments relating to the earth's cold climates.

Just looked that up, very interesting. I do work with the Army and have dealt with the Army Corps of Engineers on some facility projects down south.

[Patriot21]

6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Just looked that up, very interesting. I do work with the Army and have dealt with the Army Corps of Engineers on some facility projects down south.

It's a pretty cool place, I enjoy working there. I actually work for the facilities maintenance there, I don't do the actual research projects.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, Patriot21 said:

Haha no but that was funny and got me laughing. I'm a federal employee, work at the cold regions research lab in Hanover, NH. It's run by the Army Corps of Engineers, lots of research experiments relating to the earth's cold climates.

That’s pretty damn cool... I guess pun intended, ha.

[powderfreak]

2" on the mountain.  Crunchy coating of snow left here.  I did have 1" on the elevated snow board (also known as a garden table) when I came home this evening.  Snow coatings seemed very hit or miss... driving back from Sunapee in NH there were some areas of light snow accumulations and large areas of nothingness.  It didn't seem to be that elevation dependent, just precipitation dependent.

Here's the hill accumulation cam.  Temperatures aren't very cold.  Mid/upper-20s on the hill, around 30F at 1,500ft and low-30s in the valley.  The snow squalls were fun but really could use colder for maximum snowmaking.  Snowmaking to 1,500ft base area since early afternoon but production is slow at wet-bulbs in the upper 20s.  Need a good cold air mass with highs in the 20s at 1,500ft to really make hay.  Some years they come often, some years they never come in November.

[powderfreak]

The cold front moved through at like 1am last night.  Almost 24 hours ago the CAA started.  These "cold shots" are mostly just cool.  We've had November temperatures sub-zero (-6F in town) in recent years but lately the "below normal" periods have been missing bite.  Still over a week to go but November has been missing any cold shots lasting longer than 12 hours.  Mid-20s at mid/upper slopes while most lower areas are still in the low 30s.

These are snowmaking temperatures... but they aren't great snowmaking temperatures.  You run the snow guns at wet-bulbs in the mid/upper 20s but they are far less than optimized.  It's a long process at these temps and we seem to get these marginal temps for 12-18 hours tops.  High of 38F in the valley and above freezing at the base area didn't allow snowmaking until later this afternoon down low.

[mreaves]

4 hours ago, Patriot21 said:

I agree, looks much better with the blanket of white. I work at a place where there is snow and ice year round indoors, temperatures down to -60F or even lower. But there is something different about seeing it outside.

Ben and Jerry’s? 
 

Edit: should have read further down the thread for the answer lol. 

[tamarack]

Counted a handfull of flakes just now, first ones I've actually seen this season.  Yesterday's cloudy 44 max was archetypical November wx.  (And the clouds hung around until after the eclipse - makes 4 consecutive lunar eclipses behind clouds here.  Really hope April 8, 2024 is clear.)

Edit, Saturday morning:  Scattered graupel on the leaves, first time even a "T" on the ground.  Wife hit a white-out in Strong (next town north of Farmington) yesterday afternoon.

[tunafish]

Called in my first report (of a mere Trace) last night, GYX office closed within 30 minutes due to unforeseen circumstances.  Not a good harbinger for the rest of the season!

[J.Spin]

On 11/19/2021 at 12:10 AM, J.Spin said:

We’ve definitely had the snows – multiple systems at this point, and the models suggest there are more to come.  I’d say there are at least three more storms with possible snow in the models? – the back side of this current system, something near the beginning of next week, and then something near the end of next week.

It’s not something that really shows up on the global models, but there’s a bit of a potential bonus event that is appearing on some of the mesoscale models for tonight into tomorrow morning.  It seems pretty minor, but enough to be mentioned in the BTV NWS AFD below.

The first system I mentioned in the quoted text above delivered yesterday’s snows, and the other two seem to still be on track in the modeling.  There’s also another event starting to show up at the tail end of the month now, but it’s a bit far out there to say much and might just be leftovers from the preceding system vs. an actual disturbance of its own.  You can pretty much see the periods with these systems on the ensembles as well.

The pattern does seem to be as advertised, and these aren’t huge events that require special phasing to happen – they’re just moving through in the flow, so there’s a degree of reliability there.  These systems certainly aren’t all snow at all elevations, but they do seem like typical November fare.  It’s not quite one of the plentiful bread and butter patterns that gives us something almost every other day, but it’s definitely active with systems to monitor that have snow potential.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

1234 AM EST Sat Nov 20 2021

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As of 1222 AM EST Saturday...

Heading into Saturday night, that upper ridge starts to shift east, and deep southwesterly return flow will develop once again. It seems that there could be some light activity as the ridge moves east during the pre-dawn hours of Sunday with guidance showing a bit more in the way of activity this last cycle. Forcing isn`t substantial, which should prevent much in the way of measurable amounts. Overnight lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

[PhineasC]

I am not seeing a real uplsope signal yet after the rain system passes Monday but I am hoping we get some NW flow. 

[#NoPoles]

@PhineasCBW has been trying to blow snow top to bottom. Every time it looks like they are getting good coverage going, it warms up and rains. Here's hoping for a longer stretch of snow making temps, soon!

[PhineasC]

22 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

@PhineasCBW has been trying to blow snow top to bottom. Every time it looks like they are getting good coverage going, it warms up and rains. Here's hoping for a longer stretch of snow making temps, soon!

Any thoughts on when they might open? I haven’t been down there for a while. 

[PhineasC]

At least the Monday thing looks rather wimpy now. Pretty paltry amounts depicted here. Just .30" or so.

Atmospheric river on hold.

[#NoPoles]

6 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Any thoughts on when they might open? I haven’t been down there for a while. 

@alexany thoughts?

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

@alexany thoughts?

I've heard whisperings in the industry that they are trying for a Wednesday opening.  People on social seem to be wondering the same thing as they are at Stowe, ha.  Snowmaking today was on the upper mountain at BW and I saw some FB comments wondering why they weren't able to make snow top-to-bottom because it was cold enough for natural snow to be on the ground.

The base area elevations have been tricky!

When I was up surveying the snow coverage at Stowe late today I caught the alpenglow on Mount Washington as the western slopes turned orange and pink.

[#NoPoles]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I've heard whisperings in the industry that they are trying for a Wednesday opening.  People on social seem to be wondering the same thing as they are at Stowe, ha.  Snowmaking today was on the upper mountain at BW and I saw some FB comments wondering why they weren't able to make snow top-to-bottom because it was cold enough for natural snow to be on the ground.

The base area elevations have been tricky!

When I was up surveying the snow coverage at Stowe late today I caught the alpenglow on Mount Washington as the western slopes turned orange and pink.

That is gorgeous! I can see them trying to open before Thanksgiving. They have been blowing top to bottom when they can

[J.Spin]

10 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I am not seeing a real uplsope signal yet after the rain system passes Monday but I am hoping we get some NW flow. 

Yeah, there’s not really much shown on the back side of that – it may just be one of these that the snow levels drop from the peaks as it progresses, sort of like we’ve seen.

It’s not really a rain system though – the 540 line is forecast to be in NNE at the start of the system and it quickly moves southward, and 850 temps are below zero the whole time.  Temperatures at elevation in the Presidentials are never even forecast to get out of the 20s F.

[dryslot]

SR opened up this past week.

[PhineasC]

11 hours ago, J.Spin said:

Yeah, there’s not really much shown on the back side of that – it may just be one of these that the snow levels drop from the peaks as it progresses, sort of like we’ve seen.

It’s not really a rain system though – the 540 line is forecast to be in NNE at the start of the system and it quickly moves southward, and 850 temps are below zero the whole time.  Temperatures at elevation in the Presidentials are never even forecast to get out of the 20s F.

It'll be interesting to see where the snow line sets up as it progresses. Hopefully it gets down to 2000'-2500' or so which would really help the ski places fill out the middle of the mountains. Doesn't help them much if it's only snowing at the summit of Mt. Washington.

[dryslot]

lol, The 12z GFS.