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2021-22 Winter Discussion


Hoosier
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https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-maps 

Using this noaa site and looking back at the last 20 December-February time periods it’s been warmer then normal 14 out of the last 20 for the state of Michigan. There was 3 below normal and 3 average periods in there also. Again this is only for my state but to think the past 20 years the Meteorological winter months of Dec-Feb have been warmer then normal 70% of the time makes me feel like a Lions fan thinking there going to have a good season only to be disappointed year after year is like a winter fan in MI thinking it’s going to be cold this winter. The Lions have won a single playoff game in the past 50 some years, was that our 2013/2014 winter?

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1 hour ago, Up_north_MI said:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-maps 

Using this noaa site and looking back at the last 20 December-February time periods it’s been warmer then normal 14 out of the last 20 for the state of Michigan. There was 3 below normal and 3 average periods in there also. Again this is only for my state but to think the past 20 years the Meteorological winter months of Dec-Feb have been warmer then normal 70% of the time makes me feel like a Lions fan thinking there going to have a good season only to be disappointed year after year is like a winter fan in MI thinking it’s going to be cold this winter. The Lions have won a single playoff game in the past 50 some years, was that our 2013/2014 winter?

Great link! I did some research with New York

Went back to look at the last 20 years from Dec-February in terms of temperature. You can see our snowfall is directly dependent on temperature (Makes sense). Out of the last 21 years we have had 4 below normal winters, 4 normal winters, and 13 above normal. We've had 6 straight above normal temp winters here in Upstate New York...

December 2000 - February 2001 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2001 - February 2002 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2002 - February 2003 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2003 - February 2004 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2004 - February 2005 Statewide Average Temperature Ranks

December 2005 - February 2006 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2006 - February 2007 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2007 - February 2008 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2008 - February 2009 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2009 - February 2010 Statewide Average Temperature Ranks

December 2010 - February 2011 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2011 - February 2012 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2012 - February 2013 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2013 - February 2014 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2014 - February 2015 Statewide Average Temperature Ranks

December 2015 - February 2016 Statewide Minimum Temperature RanksDecember 2016 - February 2017 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2017 - February 2018 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2018 - February 2019 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2019 - February 2020 Statewide Average Temperature Ranks

December 2020 - February 2021 Statewide Average Temperature Ranks

 
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2 hours ago, Up_north_MI said:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-maps 

Using this noaa site and looking back at the last 20 December-February time periods it’s been warmer then normal 14 out of the last 20 for the state of Michigan. There was 3 below normal and 3 average periods in there also. Again this is only for my state but to think the past 20 years the Meteorological winter months of Dec-Feb have been warmer then normal 70% of the time makes me feel like a Lions fan thinking there going to have a good season only to be disappointed year after year is like a winter fan in MI thinking it’s going to be cold this winter. The Lions have won a single playoff game in the past 50 some years, was that our 2013/2014 winter?

The thing is Michigan is a cold state so Temp departures and snow don't go hand in hand as they would in, say, the mid Atlantic. Northern Michigan can have a banner snow year with way above avg Temps. Likewise a bitter cold winter can freeze the lakes early and shut off the lake effect machine prematurely leaving to well below normal snow.  I've studied a ton of climatology for Detroit and even in the "warmest" and" least snowy" part of the state, there is no direct correlation with temperatures and snowfall. Once you get to the North country, it's an absolute crap shoot. And what I mean by correlation, is that everything is basically dependent on weather patterns and storm tracks. 

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37 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The thing is Michigan is a cold state so Temp departures and snow don't go hand in hand as they would in, say, the mid Atlantic. Northern Michigan can have a banner snow year with way above avg Temps. Likewise a bitter cold winter can freeze the lakes early and shut off the lake effect machine prematurely leaving to well below normal snow.  I've studied a ton of climatology for Detroit and even in the "warmest" and" least snowy" part of the state, there is no direct correlation with temperatures and snowfall. Once you get to the North country, it's an absolute crap shoot. And what I mean by correlation, is that everything is basically dependent on weather patterns and storm tracks. 

There is a huge correlation between temp/snowfall in every lake effect region. That is 100% a fact. I agree that it is not as big of a factor as in a non lake effect region, but more cold increases the chances of an above snowfall year.

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

There is a huge correlation between temp/snowfall in every lake effect region. That is 100% a fact. I agree that it is not as big of a factor as in a non lake effect region, but more cold increases the chances of an above snowfall year.

Id have to look into it more. Maybe it affects areas in the snow belts more, since they have the highest averages. 

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Just now, michsnowfreak said:

Id have to look into it more. Maybe it affects areas in the snow belts more, since they have the highest averages. 

You don't get lake effect without pretty cold air, you need delta Ts of -13. Lakes Superior, Michigan, Ontario, and most of Huron don't really freeze so unless you get an extremely cold winter they don't have to worry about it. Only Erie is really effected by cold winters, the last 6 winters Erie has not fully frozen as they've all been above average.

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You don't get lake effect without pretty cold air, you need delta Ts of -13. Lakes Superior, Michigan, Ontario, and most of Huron don't really freeze so unless you get an extremely cold winter they don't have to worry about it. Only Erie is really effected by cold winters, the last 6 winters Erie has not fully frozen as they've all been above average.

Last Winter lake Erie actually peaked at 81% ice coverage which is above average peak. But this was entirely Feb. Seems like even Erie only fully freezes in cold winters.

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6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Last Winter lake Erie actually peaked at 81% ice coverage which is above average peak. But this was entirely Feb. Seems like even Erie only fully freezes in cold winters.

"Lake Erie usually does freeze, about 90 percent of the time," Apffel said. "Last year was an exception." 

https://buffalonews.com/news/local/state-and-regional/when-lake-erie-freezes-over-continued-cold-could-reduce-lake-effect-snow/article_de9a338c-6d44-11eb-b73e-9fafd64107a9.html

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I'm gonna lose my mind with the Winter Forecasts.  Two forecast below almost the "polar" opposite of each other.  What gives??

 

Kentucky Met Forecast:

https://www.wkyt.com/2021/11/18/chief-meteorologist-chris-baileys-winter-weather-forecast/

 

Ohio Met Winter Forecast:

https://myfox28columbus.com/news/news-links/central-ohio-winter-snowfall-forecast-wintercast-2021-2022

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17 hours ago, Up_north_MI said:

As much as we can count on a warmer then normal winter lately we can also count on February being the one month that seems to delivers most of the winter like weather we do end up getting. 

The amount of snow we have been getting in February is insane. It's unlike anything I've ever seen in the climate record in terms of varying so dramatically from the average on such a consistent basis. 

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2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The amount of snow we have been getting in February is insane. It's unlike anything I've ever seen in the climate record in terms of varying so dramatically from the average on such a consistent basis. 

100 or a 1000 years from now it will be recognized as the shifting of the seasons..LOL.  Everything does start subtle, but it begs the question.  

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7 hours ago, Frog Town said:

100 or a 1000 years from now it will be recognized as the shifting of the seasons..LOL.  Everything does start subtle, but it begs the question.  

Lol. For real though, since 2010, which is 12 years, Detroit has averaged 18.3" of snow in Feb. This is literally double the longterm average of around 9".  Going back a full 20 years we have averaged 16". 

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Northwest flow and clipper patterns don't do it for me so I guess now's a good time to be in that now and get it out of the way, and hopefully it doesnt return this winter.  A decent warm up looks to be on the horizon soon. We need one powerhouse low pressure system to track north of us and push the jet stream further south so we can get some low pressure systems to come out of the 4 corners, or the gulf.  I am itching and craving for a snowstorm. It's been what seems like 3 years since we've seen a decent snowstorm here in Detroit. The early november surprise storm in november 2019 is only one that comes to mind. 

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Picked up another inch or so last night, everything is white again but it should melt off in a day or two. My cousin sent me a picture of out his front window at his place up near white fish point and they look to have 4-5 inches on the ground up there right now. We’ve probably had 10-12 inches already this Fall which is above normal for our area, we only average about 85-90 inches a year, areas just 20 miles to our north and west average 120 inches plus.

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34 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Northwest flow and clipper patterns don't do it for me so I guess now's a good time to be in that now and get it out of the way, and hopefully it doesnt return this winter.  A decent warm up looks to be on the horizon soon. We need one powerhouse low pressure system to track north of us and push the jet stream further south so we can get some low pressure systems to come out of the 4 corners, or the gulf.  I am itching and craving for a snowstorm. It's been what seems like 3 years since we've seen a decent snowstorm here in Detroit. The early november surprise storm in november 2019 is only one that comes to mind. 

I would be shocked if there weren't some power house storms in the area in a 2nd year Nina. Based on track you risk anything from snow to ice to rain or a mix of all 3...but chances should be there.

 

Btw...don't forget about Feb 15/16 storm last year. 11" fell, good rates and drifting in the evening. It was definitely the most severe storm we have had in a few years (although Nov 11 2019 was the most anomalous).

 

FB_IMG_1637586997927.jpg

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2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I would be shocked if there weren't some power house storms in the area in a 2nd year Nina. Based on track you risk anything from snow to ice to rain or a mix of all 3...but chances should be there.

 

Btw...don't forget about Feb 15/16 storm last year. 11" fell, good rates and drifting in the evening. It was definitely the most severe storm we have had in a few years (although Nov 11 2019 was the most anomalous).

 

FB_IMG_1637586997927.jpg

Ill take that track anyday.  If you want a big snows, you got to smell the rain. That feb storm last year was a fast mover and I think only like 4-5 fell in most areas, high ratio fluffer. Models were hyping it bigger than it ended up being. I think the only event last year that dropped more than 3".

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23 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Ill take that track anyday.  If you want a big snows, you got to smell the rain. That feb storm last year was a fast mover and I think only like 4-5 fell in most areas, high ratio fluffer. Models were hyping it bigger than it ended up being. I think the only event last year that dropped more than 3".

Actually the storm was a good hit for the east side. There was wave 1 which dropped 1-2" in the morning...then the main event evening into the next morning which dropped 6-10" on the east side. DTX did NOT count the morning wave in their storm summary. So the two day totals were widespread double digits on the east side depends how you counted it (some nws offices counted 1 storm, some 2). 

 

The Feb 4th storm was the insane band where the 4-hour 4" snowfall saw the first 3" fall in like 75 minutes. Those were the best synoptic rates I've seen in years. 

 

https://www.weather.gov/dtx/210215winterstorm

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3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Actually the storm was a good hit for the east side. There was wave 1 which dropped 1-2" in the morning...then the main event evening into the next morning which dropped 6-10" on the east side. DTX did NOT count the morning wave in their storm summary. So the two day totals were widespread double digits on the east side depends how you counted it (some nws offices counted 1 storm, some 2). 

 

The Feb 4th storm was the insane band where the 4-hour 4" snowfall saw the first 3" fall in like 75 minutes. Those were the best synoptic rates I've seen in years. 

 

https://www.weather.gov/dtx/210215winterstorm

I wasn't here for the feb 15 storm but i remember it as one storm that only lasted 4-6 hours and most places saw a high ratio 4-5 for the main show.  Snow that happened the previous day shouldn't count towards the main show imo. Im not heading south to florida for the winter until jan 1st so here to hoping for a front loaded winter.

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21 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

I wasn't here for the feb 15 storm but i remember it as one storm that only lasted 4-6 hours and most places saw a high ratio 4-5 for the main show.  Snow that happened the previous day shouldn't count towards the main show imo. Im not heading south to florida for the winter until jan 1st so here to hoping for a front loaded winter.

I honestly can't remember how long it lasted but for me personally it was a great storm because we did have a fresh 9" from the main batch, and when you add in all of the old snow on the ground I was like a kid playing with my snow blower in the deep drifts.

 

Uh oh you're going to Florida again? Guess that means not a lot of snow in December and yet another February buried lol.

FB_IMG_1637690063978.jpg

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

December has pretty much been a trainwreck lately.  The last time Chicago had one snowier than average was 2016, and even that one had melting/dwindling snow on Christmas.  

We will get a good one again... eventually, lol

The Great Winter Solstice Blizzard of '21 is on the table for Chicagoland.

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4 hours ago, Frog Town said:

We officially had 14" at Toledo express airport and that was on top of a solid 6" snow pack.  We officially set our all time depth record from that storm.  Pretty crazy.  Glad my kids got to experience it....All thought I may have been more excited.  

Toledo had 14 on the ground after last yrs mid feb quick hitter?

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4 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Toledo had 14 on the ground after last yrs mid feb quick hitter?

Are you referring to the storm on the 15th-sh?  That was not a quick hitter for NW Ohio.  Toledo express measured 14.1" from that storm alone.  I intentionally measured the depth just prior as I have never seen that snow depth in my 45 years in T-Town.  

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4 hours ago, Frog Town said:

Are you referring to the storm on the 15th-sh?  That was not a quick hitter for NW Ohio.  Toledo express measured 14.1" from that storm alone.  I intentionally measured the depth just prior as I have never seen that snow depth in my 45 years in T-Town.  

Yea that storm. Wow i thought the dry slot snuck into toledo too. Good to see toledo jackpotted for once.

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4 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Toledo had 14 on the ground after last yrs mid feb quick hitter?

I just checked the observations, wasn't that quick of hitter. Wonder if you're thinking Feb 4th? That was a classic quick hitter...dropped 3-5" in 4 hours area wide.

 

Feb 15th....after morning snow dropped 1-2" there was a lull all afternoon...then snow began at 5pm, ending at 9am the 16th. Heaviest snow rates in the 10pm-3am window. New snowfall was 8-9" for Detroit and its eastern burbs, on top of the 1-2" from the earlier morning. Snow depth after the storm was 14" at Detroit and 18" at Toledo.

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14 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea that storm. Wow i thought the dry slot snuck into toledo too. Good to see toledo jackpotted for once.

It's funny you mention that because I was banking on us getting dry slotted as we typically do.  I was shocked to see us get that high as well.  The sweet spot was actually progged 45 miles to our SE but ended up over us, shockingly.  

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5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I just checked the observations, wasn't that quick of hitter. Wonder if you're thinking Feb 4th? That was a classic quick hitter...dropped 3-5" in 4 hours area wide.

 

Feb 15th....after morning snow dropped 1-2" there was a lull all afternoon...then snow began at 5pm, ending at 9am the 16th. Heaviest snow rates in the 10pm-3am window. New snowfall was 8-9" for Detroit and its eastern burbs, on top of the 1-2" from the earlier morning. Snow depth after the storm was 14" at Detroit and 18" at Toledo.

 I'm remembering the mid February storm, temps were pretty cold, like in the upper teens? The ratios def saved it from being a total dud  Not one model had the dry slot getting this far north, but somehow Detroit always finds a way to get into it. Either way it's been a pretty dull Winter the past 3 years so hopefully we can get things going in here soon.  It's a bummer because we've had some decent colder around here lately but no storms. Hopefully yall don't mind us cluttering up this thread a bit.  Not a whole lot going on really anywhere snowwise.

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