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Tropical Storm Mindy Max Winds 45Mph


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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the central Atlantic several hundred miles 
southeast of Bermuda.

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased somewhat this evening over 
the south-central Gulf of Mexico in association with a surface 
trough and an upper-level disturbance.  The system is expected to 
move slowly northeastward over the central and northeastern Gulf of 
Mexico during the next couple of days.  Upper-level winds are 
currently only marginally conducive for development, but they are 
forecast to become slightly more favorable by late Wednesday, and a 
tropical or subtropical depression could form as the system nears 
the northern Gulf coast Wednesday night or Thursday.  The 
disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern United 
States, and some slight additional development will be possible 
after it emerges off the southeastern United States coast late this 
week.  Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall will be 
possible across portions of the Florida panhandle and southern 
Georgia on Wednesday and Thursday, with localized flooding possible.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

 

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2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Since the storm is over the gulf now and could be threat to the U.S if it can get it's act together thought it was time for a thread, though it will most likely be nothing but a rainmaker.

Aren't you like a teenager kid who likes storms? ;)

Maybe 1/4 of my age?

You have earned my respect, look forward to being near 100 years old watching you on 3D virtual reality whatever the medium is in 30 years with global live radar and crazy graphics and forecasting models that are accurate 10 to 14 days out! A holographic of whoever you are pointing to the same quality in stunning presentations of the current storms. Hopefully the live cam we were all addicted to during Ida is only the beginning of what we can see one day live in 3D with full sound where no chaser should ever attempt.

Anyway had a big meeting with one of my main clients on Clearwater Beach today planning photo shoots of their vacation condos. The weather coming up over the next few days will not be conducive for shooting, so mid-next week if all goes well. But we kicked around what this system might do. No major fears, but also we all are ready for more than just rain, just in case. We are all watching.

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Looks like a low-level circulation is forming tonight. Quite evident on shortwave too. Good call on the thread. A tropical storm by landfall is looking likely now.
A little overzealous over night at a TS being "likely" in my post but there does appear to be broad low-level circulation with banding developing on the southeast side. There's assymetry and subtropical characteristics. Recon is not scheduled. NHC gives a medium chance of genesis. It's not got a lot of time prior to the panhandle but could gain enough organization to get classified.406206c5b7770f4ea5699b5a5257c6fb.gif
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1. Updated:  Satellite and radar data indicate that shower and 
thunderstorm activity continues to gradually become better organized 
in association with an area of low pressure located about 115 miles 
southwest of Apalachicola, Florida. In addition, satellite-derived 
wind data indicate that the circulation has become somewhat better 
defined today. If these development trends continue, advisories will 
likely be initiated on this system as a tropical depression or 
tropical storm later this afternoon, and tropical storm warnings 
could be required for portions of the coast of the Florida 
Panhandle. After reaching the Florida Panhandle tonight, this system 
is expected to move across the southeastern United States and emerge 
over the western Atlantic by late Thursday, where environmental 
conditions appear unfavorable for additional development.  
Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely across 
portions of the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia through 
Thursday, with localized flooding possible. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Looks pretty close to a tropical system to me imo

c30f02e4d661cab7fe9a00224129c89c.png

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Now have Mindy

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 86.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of the
Florida Panhandle from Mexico Beach to Steinhatchee River.

cone graphic

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Tropical Storm Mindy Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132021
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

Through the day, the area of disturbed weather in the northeastern 
Gulf of Mexico has gradually become better organized on 
geostationary satellite and Doppler radar imagery. Earlier, a 1515 
UTC ASCAT-C pass found a number of southwesterly wind retrievals in 
the 30-kt range on the southeast side of the formative circulation. 
The ASCAT-C Ambiguities at that time also hinted that a very small 
closed circulation was trying to develop along the edge of these 
stronger winds. Since that time, a well-defined circulation become 
evident on KEVX Doppler-radar with inbound velocities occasionally 
nearing 40-45 kt to the southeast of the radar center. These 
Doppler-radar winds have been increasing over the past couple of 
hours as the center moves closer to the radar and I am reasonably 
confident this circulation is now surface based. Just in the last 
hour or so, NOAA buoy 42039 reported a peak 1-minute sustained wind 
of 35 kt just southeast of the center, confirming the system now has 
tropical storm force winds. Thus, advisories are being initiated 
on tropical storm Mindy with maximum sustained wind of 35 kt.

The most recent estimated motion following the center on radar is to 
the northeast at 050/18 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement 
that this quick motion should continue with a gentle shift to the 
east-northeast in the next 24-36 hours as the system is under the 
influence of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moving across the 
eastern United States. On the current heading, the center of 
Mindy should move inland over the Florida Panhandle in the next 6-12 
hours and then already be offshore of the southeastern United States 
by 24 hours. A gradual slowdown is expected thereafter as the 
cyclone is left behind by this mid-latitude trough and also becomes 
vertically shallow.

Little intensification is expected prior to landfall, with land 
interaction resulting in Mindy weakening back to a depression by 24 
hours. Conditions do not appear favorable for restrengthening off 
the southeastern United States as shear is forecast to increase 
above 30 knots in 24 hours. This shear will likely strip away from 
remaining convection, and both the ECMWF and GFS simulated IR 
brightness temperatures suggest Mindy should become a remnant low in 
the day 2-3 period. This remnant low is forecast to open up into a 
trough shortly thereafter.

Key Messages:

1. Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall from the Florida
Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina
through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to
scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected through tonight in 
portions of the Florida Panhandle where a Tropical Storm Warning is 
in effect. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 29.0N  86.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 30.3N  84.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  09/1800Z 31.3N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  10/0600Z 32.3N  75.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 32.9N  72.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 33.4N  69.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/1800Z 33.3N  68.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Go Mindy!  Shows you can never count out a tropical system and always need to keep watching, especially one this close to land and especially one in the bathwater of the Gulf of Mexico. 

Also goes to show satellite appearance of a developing TC doesn't always equate to the kind of winds it produces - Mindy has some deep convection but organization is lacking and it looks pretty dissheveled :)   Yet Mindy is already producing sustained winds of 50 mph at a buoy slightly east of her center!
 

 
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500 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

...NOAA BUOY DATA INDICATES THAT MINDY IS A LITTLE STRONGER...

Recent data from NOAA buoy 42036 indicates that the maximum 
sustained winds in Mindy are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher 
gusts.


SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 86.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
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  • SnowenOutThere changed the title to Tropical Storm Mindy 40MPH, 1008 Pressure
  • SnowenOutThere changed the title to Tropical Storm Mindy Max Winds 45Mph

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