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Fall/Winter '21-'22 General Obs


John1122
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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

Euro Weeklies are out.  Still a fairly good signal for seasonal or slightly BN temps for the SE.  @nrgjeff, most of the teleconnections look neutral after the next week or os.  Best I can I can tell is many the -WPO is helping driving the pattern some in terms of teleconnections.  I imagine the climatology for Nina is also driving the look in modeling.  

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Weekly charts are split 50/50 on this mid-November pattern flip. Southeast is shown normal. Clusters show a mix of warm cold and blah. North stays warm which is the source. End of the Ensembles shows an equally undecided mess. 

image.thumb.png.b38d3b574052f1901c212d5ce8201214.png

Now we all know, if something can go wrong - it will. Probably a blend of Hold and Retro (but not enough retro for +PNA). Continue warm. Not a forecast. Mostly cynical venting.

Moderator / Admin: Possible to move Monday and Tuesday posts to the pinned forecast thread. I elected to post here in line with the current conversation.

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4 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Weekly charts are split 50/50 on this mid-November pattern flip. Southeast is shown normal. Clusters show a mix of warm cold and blah. North stays warm which is the source. End of the Ensembles shows an equally undecided mess. 

image.thumb.png.b38d3b574052f1901c212d5ce8201214.png

Now we all know, if something can go wrong - it will. Probably a blend of Hold and Retro (but not enough retro for +PNA). Continue warm. Not a forecast. Mostly cynical venting.

Moderator / Admin: Possible to move Monday and Tuesday posts to the pinned forecast thread. I elected to post here in line with the current conversation.

Lol after the past several years if the PAC NW can screw us it will. No questions asked.

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Thank you for the update and foliage forecast. We were going to try to get out this weekend, but the last weekend of October is probably better for us.

I figure above 3K ft is good this weekend. Thanks to ample moisture in spring and summer, and finally decent diurnal trends, I'm hoping for a great show in the valleys and even urban areas again like last year. Chatty is definitely after Halloween.

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