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Fall/Winter '21-'22 General Obs


John1122
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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

Euro Weeklies are out.  Still a fairly good signal for seasonal or slightly BN temps for the SE.  @nrgjeff, most of the teleconnections look neutral after the next week or os.  Best I can I can tell is many the -WPO is helping driving the pattern some in terms of teleconnections.  I imagine the climatology for Nina is also driving the look in modeling.  

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Weekly charts are split 50/50 on this mid-November pattern flip. Southeast is shown normal. Clusters show a mix of warm cold and blah. North stays warm which is the source. End of the Ensembles shows an equally undecided mess. 

image.thumb.png.b38d3b574052f1901c212d5ce8201214.png

Now we all know, if something can go wrong - it will. Probably a blend of Hold and Retro (but not enough retro for +PNA). Continue warm. Not a forecast. Mostly cynical venting.

Moderator / Admin: Possible to move Monday and Tuesday posts to the pinned forecast thread. I elected to post here in line with the current conversation.

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4 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Weekly charts are split 50/50 on this mid-November pattern flip. Southeast is shown normal. Clusters show a mix of warm cold and blah. North stays warm which is the source. End of the Ensembles shows an equally undecided mess. 

image.thumb.png.b38d3b574052f1901c212d5ce8201214.png

Now we all know, if something can go wrong - it will. Probably a blend of Hold and Retro (but not enough retro for +PNA). Continue warm. Not a forecast. Mostly cynical venting.

Moderator / Admin: Possible to move Monday and Tuesday posts to the pinned forecast thread. I elected to post here in line with the current conversation.

Lol after the past several years if the PAC NW can screw us it will. No questions asked.

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Thank you for the update and foliage forecast. We were going to try to get out this weekend, but the last weekend of October is probably better for us.

I figure above 3K ft is good this weekend. Thanks to ample moisture in spring and summer, and finally decent diurnal trends, I'm hoping for a great show in the valleys and even urban areas again like last year. Chatty is definitely after Halloween.

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We need a rave glowstick emoji / reaction for events like above. 

Meanwhile Chattanooga feels like Wichita this morning. Wind is blowing from the south and it's stiff. Started right at 8am. MRX with the precision advisories, haha!

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Thank you! We are Plateau bound Saturday. Have to figure the Smokies were stripped in the High Wind Warning.

@John1122 what's the best elevation? I'm wondering somewhere close or haul up toward Frozen Head. Closer is ideal since we know the less crowded spots of the Plateau. 

Everyone, happy foliage. Remember cloudy can still yield excellent photography. Though I still prefer sunny, we take what we get. 

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6 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Thank you! We are Plateau bound Saturday. Have to figure the Smokies were stripped in the High Wind Warning.

@John1122 what's the best elevation? I'm wondering somewhere close or haul up toward Frozen Head. Closer is ideal since we know the less crowded spots of the Plateau. 

Everyone, happy foliage. Remember cloudy can still yield excellent photography. Though I still prefer sunny, we take what we get. 

Today, anything between 1250 and 2500 looks good. Tons of color. I didn't drive up to 3000 and it's in a cloud the past two days so I'm not sure what the status is that high up. 

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