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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

TWC has its winter temp outlook out (for fun purposes only) but I think the lot of us would be surprised which way they’re leaning…

Looks like they went with a typical Nina. Surprised they went with warm November, I would be surprised by that. I definitely agree with warmer Feb and especially March. Its a good look for us. 

wsi_dec-feb_1013.jpg?crop=16:9&width=480&format=pjpg&auto=webp&quality=60

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2021-10-13-late-fall-winter-temperature-outlook-forecast

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Looks like they went with a typical Nina. Surprised they went with warm November, I would be surprised by that. I definitely agree with warmer Feb and especially March. Its a good look for us. 

wsi_dec-feb_1013.jpg?crop=16:9&width=480&format=pjpg&auto=webp&quality=60

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2021-10-13-late-fall-winter-temperature-outlook-forecast

I agree with this. November December look cold, January transition month and February March early spring…if we can get 2 or 3 really good LES events and one good synoptic event I’d consider this a success

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10 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I agree with this. November December look cold, January transition month and February March early spring…if we can get 2 or 3 really good LES events and one good synoptic event I’d consider this a success

I'd always prefer a front loaded vs back loaded winter. Late Nov to early January is best winter

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14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'd always prefer a front loaded vs back loaded winter. Late Nov to early January is best winter

And I know it’s the GFS so handle with care, but it is really showing a lot of lows that would give the metro area some excellent LES events if it were 5 or so weeks from now. Look at the 6z from this morning, the Saturday 10/23 looks incredible for a huge event, and if comes to fruition will be a rain event. Crazy we’re getting here this fast

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2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

And I know it’s the GFS so handle with care, but it is really showing a lot of lows that would give the metro area some excellent LES events if it were 5 or so weeks from now. Look at the 6z from this morning, the Saturday 10/23 looks incredible for a huge event, and if comes to fruition will be a rain event. Crazy we’re getting here this fast

That's why any cold before mid November is useless for lower elevations. 

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Once cold front moves through by early Saturday afternoon, temps
will fall into the upper 50s over higher terrain of WNY to the low
to mid 60s Finger Lakes to east of Lake Ontario. It will become
quite breezy on Saturday with gusts over 30 mph near both lakes. The
cold air will set lake effect processes quickly into motion. First,
expect lake effect showers to develop off Lake Erie over western
Southern Tier of WNY with mainly westerly flow in the boundary
layer. Eventually but pretty late in the day, west-northwest
flow will result in lake effect setting up from Tug Hill
southwest to the southeast shoreline of Lake Ontario. Initially
the intensity of the lake effect will be muted with overall
subsidence behind the initial cold front.

On Saturday night the lake effect will increase with forecast
soundings showing lake ELs rising to over 20kft as initial push of
cold air advection lowers H85 temps to +1c to +2c resulting in more
than sufficient over-water instability. While this is
occurring, additional larger scale lift will develop over the
lower Great Lakes and low-level convergence will increase as
shown by sfc-H95 winds. Lake effect should sharpen up and
intensify, especially off Lake Ontario given a longer over water
fetch and more persistent deeper moisture to H7. With temps in
the lake convective layer reaching
-10c and ELs continuing to increase toward 30kft, setup seems to
favor potential for thunder in the stronger lake effect bands. Will
stay somewhat breezy for all areas and temps will drop to the 40s
and 50s, coolest Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario.

 

Sunday into Monday, deep trough with coldest air of the season thus
far crosses the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. By time coldest air
crosses late Monday into Monday night, H85 temps fall to +1c over
western NY and to -4c just to east of Lake Ontario. Looking at
prolonged lake effect showers southeast of both lakes as winds in
boundary layer will have veered northwest by late in the
weekend. Deepest moisture and highest inversions will be across
Lake Ontario and this is where there will also further support
from upstream connections off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay and
the overall support of a longer fetch. Forecast soundings
supported keeping likely pops over western Southern Tier on
Sunday with categorical pops east-southeast of Lake Ontario.
Setup remains very favorable into Monday off Lake Ontario. Off
Lake Erie though, approach of sfc high and subsidence will
result in conditions becoming more hostile to lake effect so
have continued to lower pops there. Given the degree of over-
water instability, certainly cannot rule it out but just does
not look to have the staying power, intensity with what will be
occurring southeast of Lake Ontario. No real change to going
forecast either way. Will remain breezy on Sunday especially
near the stronger mixing over the lakes. Temps both Sunday and
Monday will be below normal with highs both days struggling to
reach 60 degrees.

Lake effect off Lake Ontario will begin to wane late Monday into
Monday night as sfc ridge approaches. Some clouds and at least small
chance of showers could linger southeast of Lake Ontario until
Tuesday though since the H925-H85 ridge will not begin to arrive
until that time. Once the lake effect ends, high pressure at the sfc
and aloft with warming temps aloft will result in dry and warmer
weather. Highs Tuesday will return to the mid 60s though higher
terrain may stay in the 50s. All but the highest terrain east of
Lake Ontario will see highs in the 60s on Wednesday. Low temps
Tuesday night could dip into the 30s for typical cold spots of
Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario.

p120i (19).gif

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8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Looks like they went with a typical Nina. Surprised they went with warm November, I would be surprised by that. I definitely agree with warmer Feb and especially March. Its a good look for us. 

wsi_dec-feb_1013.jpg?crop=16:9&width=480&format=pjpg&auto=webp&quality=60

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2021-10-13-late-fall-winter-temperature-outlook-forecast

Guess who lives RIGHT on the line? Even TWC trolls me ....   

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There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms late this afternoon
into tonight. The most favored time for severe weather will be from
3 PM to 9 PM. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts, but
large hail and even an isolated tornado are also possible, especially
across the Southern Tier closer to a warm front.

There is an additional potential for strong to damaging wind gusts
late tonight as another round of thunderstorms develop ahead of a
cold front.

 

B85129AA-C477-4DF1-B853-FD13217FFC7F.gif

6E4736D6-3704-471A-8FA5-57347FAA529D.gif

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1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said:

Might have to turn the heat on finally Monday. Upper 30s and low 50s highs will probably do it.

We had the furnace on for a few hours a couple of weeks ago when we had a chilly morning. Nothing since.

We have not touched our wood pellets yet but I think that changes on Monday for sure.

 

 

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