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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

So the temperature disparity it’s really noticeable this am…KBUF 58, Williamsville 60, Lancaster 49, Tonawanda 49 uIB north 50…you get the point….as an official reporting station that has a great influence on the temperature increase/decrease and averages based on the warming earth this is highly misleading data. This is not the first time in the last year we’ve spotted this disparity.

KBUF is 63 at the 9am update.  Looks pretty much in line to me…8869FAAF-B2EC-4A18-AA55-EF5FD3B2AE5E.jpeg.c170b3d67f32a35267b53f86cef3a454.jpeg

D0FEEE68-C70D-47AC-87E1-43486B703FC5.jpeg

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HWO

A complex storm system will develop over the Upper Ohio valley and
mid western states on Tuesday. This slow moving system will cross our
region Wednesday into Thursday. At the least, we can expect a soaking
rainfall of an inch or more. There will be an elevated risk for
rainfall that could exceed two inches.

 

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Discussion

..A Soaking Rain on the Far Horizon...

The various deterministic guidance packages continue to struggle
with the timing of a complex storm evolution that will take place
over the Upper Ohio Valley/Mid western states during this period.
The GFS has been...and continues to be...the most aggressive and is
likely much too fast with the resulting significant weather for our
forecast area. As mentioned in previous discussions...will discount
this solution in favor of a blend of the ECMWF and NHCan. These
models have a more climatologically consistent `view` of how the
overall system will play out. Sharp troughs that lead to vertically
stacked systems with tight west to east hgt gradients typically
exhibit a slow eastward progression with a rather sharp edge to the
main swath of rain. This should be no different. Will thus skew
ensemble solutions towards the mean of the ECMWF and NHCan
deterministic packages.

The last of several strong H5 impulses will dig into a sharp
longwave trough over the Mississippi valley Tuesday night. This will
begin the process of forming a closed off low that will plague our
region through the mid week period. Meanwhile...an inverted trough
will extend northwards across Lake Erie. Much of Tuesday night
should be rainfree...but there will be some showers around...mainly
west of the Finger Lakes. Temps bumped up a bit to account for deep
southerly flow and slower progression of upstream system.

The closed low will significantly deepen over the Upper Ohio Valley/
Mid Western states Wednesday and Wednesday night...while a strong
ridge will remain anchored some 500 miles east of Long Island. This
will establish a strong southerly flow that will inhibit an eastward
push of rain from the vertically stacked system. Showers will
gradually give way to steadier rain...mainly over the far western
counties where the rain could be moderately heavy at times. Have
raised pops to near 100 for these areas.

A strong sfc occlusion will slowly push to the east across our
forecast area Thursday into Thursday night. A 50-75 mile band of
moderately heavy rain will precede the feature...and this will be
followed by a dry slot that will be followed by a pronounced dry
slot that may be completely shut down the residual showers.

The passage of this slow moving system should generate at LEAST a
soaking rain for our region...and there could be the risk for
problematic rains if the ECMWF/NH Can prove to be in line. Rainfall
amounts from Wednesday through Thursday (when the rain could be
steadiest/heaviest) will very likely exceed an inch and could
eclipse 2 inches
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2 hours ago, Luke_Mages said:

My theory has been that heat islands play a much larger role in the data acquisition and/or warming than is being credited. The problem is that no one will buy an anti urban sprawl campaign when the constituents largely live in urban areas.

I could go with the heat island theory IF it was snack downtown but it’s on the border of Williamsville off Youngs…I can’t believe the runway would make that much if a difference 

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59 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

9am wasn’t the issue…7am was

What site were you using to reference the temps?  Weather Underground map or …???  Need to be carful with that map as I have been fooled before.  KBUF temps only updates on the map on the top of the hour, those other sites update every few minutes.  Right at 7am could be tricky is KBUF hadn’t updated yet and was still showing the 6am temp and all those other sites were rapidly warming in real time as the sun rose.  Also really don’t know how accurate those other gauges are.  If they are not placed properly they can warm up super fast as soon as the sun rises.  

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I could go with the heat island theory IF it was snack downtown but it’s on the border of Williamsville off Youngs…I can’t believe the runway would make that much if a difference 

Lot more to look at that just the runway!  Gonna try and do a little research on development in recent years around that area… but here’s something to peak your interest… I strongly believe the UHI could be impacting the temp over time but I think the question is how much additional heating (if any?) can these new developments really add to the general area?

Two map grabs the 2D overhead version being the most current on the map app.  Need to find the year on the 3D version But its sometime between 2010 and 2013.  I marked the NWS office on the map.  Two things to look at.  The huge parking lot that was put up just south of the NWS office on Holtz Drive.  Again need to research it but the main lot was built sometime between 2000 and 2010 with an additional section added on a later date.  This area use to be an open field but is now a massive asphalt lot that buys right up to the NWS office.  The second area to note is directly across Holtz Drive and the newly built “Airborne Business Park”.  Again went from open fields to mass development in last 10 years.

A827C48E-0266-4D0D-B0B5-2A0C59679250.jpeg

9CF5FCC4-02FD-4723-A710-C7B7DE78F0E8.jpeg

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I could go with the heat island theory IF it was snack downtown but it’s on the border of Williamsville off Youngs…I can’t believe the runway would make that much if a difference 

It's not just the runway, its the GIGANTIC parking lot literally less than 100 feet from the measuring area.   I have to assume that makes some sort of impact.  We also still don't definitively no where they take their measurements.  If's at the actual office, then I think they would see a big impact from those parking lots.  If it's somewhere else, then we really have no idea how to correlate this issue.

EDIT- I'm just now seeing the post above.  It's the same thing I mentioned a few months back and I posted about it.  There is a new HUGE parking lot that was recently added.

 

Capture.JPG

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Also, to continue down the urban heat island discussion.  I often play softball in the evenings on the East side of Rochester and I live on the West side of Rochester.  As I drive home, the temperature will often increase a good 7-10 degrees from the softball fields in perinton to downtown Rochester and then the temp will drop back another 7-10 as I exit the downtown area and head home.  I can literally feel it with my arm out the window.  I think some of you are severely underestimating how powerful this effect is.  

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3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Also, to continue down the urban heat island discussion.  I often play softball in the evenings on the East side of Rochester and I live on the West side of Rochester.  As I drive home, the temperature will often increase a good 7-10 degrees from the softball fields in perinton to downtown Rochester and then the temp will drop back another 7-10 as I exit the downtown area and head home.  I can literally feel it with my arm out the window.  I think some of you are severely underestimating how powerful this effect is.  

Its even more noticeable in larger cities like Toronto, NYC, LA. We have no where near the urban heating those places get. A parking lot next to the place they record temps can definitely have an effect of 1-2 degrees, especially in summer and on sunny days. Blacktop soaks in the sun. 

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Its even more noticeable in larger cities like Toronto, NYC, LA. We have no where near the urban heating those places get. A parking lot next to the place they record temps can definitely have an effect of 1-2 degrees, especially in summer and on sunny days. Blacktop soaks in the sun. 

Yep, riding a motorcycle I feel it every morning. Its literally a wall of warmth that starts pretty abruptly at transit road. If I head south on transit from wherle it doesnt chill off until you get to seneca with a few pockets of "country air" in between.

 

 

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18 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

It's not just the runway, its the GIGANTIC parking lot literally less than 100 feet from the measuring area.   I have to assume that makes some sort of impact.  We also still don't definitively no where they take their measurements.  If's at the actual office, then I think they would see a big impact from those parking lots.  If it's somewhere else, then we really have no idea how to correlate this issue.

EDIT- I'm just now seeing the post above.  It's the same thing I mentioned a few months back and I posted about it.  There is a new HUGE parking lot that was recently added.

 

Capture.JPG

I sent them a message to confirm but I’m 99% sure this is where the temp sensor is located.  Can see the snowboards just above it and then a few feet away the massive parking lot.  

D159D889-05D7-416F-9167-5BE1066690CC.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Possible warming from the lake at play this morning?  It’s going to keep areas within 10 or so miles a lot milder for a while as I expect lake temp is still in upper 60’s. 

That’s what I was thinking this morning when the question was first brought up but winds overnight into the morning were out of the E and then SE.  Still had a “warming downslope” aspect out of the higher elevations but the lake influence would be held to more of the immediate lake shore I would think. 

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56 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Lot more to look at that just the runway!  Gonna try and do a little research on development in recent years around that area… but here’s something to peak your interest… I strongly believe the UHI could be impacting the temp over time but I think the question is how much additional heating (if any?) can these new developments really add to the general area?

Two map grabs the 2D overhead version being the most current on the map app.  Need to find the year on the 3D version But its sometime between 2010 and 2013.  I marked the NWS office on the map.  Two things to look at.  The huge parking lot that was put up just south of the NWS office on Holtz Drive.  Again need to research it but the main lot was built sometime between 2000 and 2010 with an additional section added on a later date.  This area use to be an open field but is now a massive asphalt lot that buys right up to the NWS office.  The second area to note is directly across Holtz Drive and the newly built “Airborne Business Park”.  Again went from open fields to mass development in last 10 years.

A827C48E-0266-4D0D-B0B5-2A0C59679250.jpeg

9CF5FCC4-02FD-4723-A710-C7B7DE78F0E8.jpeg

Thank you all for the great detective work! If the temps are real time at all the other sites/meso net sites like UB that would be a good possibility, all that I saw was KBUF at that time was already 8 degrees warmer than all the sites within a few miles. That’s what surprised me 

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Our winters are definitely warming. Pretty crazy how the midwest has actually gone down in average temps Dec-Feb. Look at the scale, its nothing too extreme, but again this is only 18 year scale. It takes decades for the warm to really be felt. 

*It's vs the 1981-2010 longterm average so makes it seem less worse than it actual is. If it was vs the longterm average it would likely be more dramatic. 

AEDF0F2D-41D5-4275-A0F1-1791329B37B7.png.bf8936e02ebcf0313715f0470faee574.png

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