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August 9-12, 2021 Severe Threats


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Velo is collapsing right before getting to the LOT radar site, so those 70-110mph wind gusts are just off the surface...barely.

Surface stable layer must still be in place. Needed this activity to roll through a bit later, say around noon, to have had better transport to the surface.

This thing looks like it hit a wall at the LOT radar site.
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Velo is collapsing right before getting to the LOT radar site, so those 70-110mph wind gusts are just off the surface...barely.

Surface stable layer must still be in place. Needed this activity to roll through a bit later, say around noon, to have had better transport to the surface.

Additionally, looks like the main storm collapsed right as it was entering the metro. So that’s another negative.


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Impressive rear inflow jet and cold pool - ARR dewpoint down to 62F with 40KT winds continuing well behind the outflow. SPC may  need to adjust the ENH to southern MI and another farther W into NE IA. 12Z guidance has the cold pool but they all handle it differently. Some show rapid recovery like the HRDPS, others show the recovery around the bubble high taking longer, which may lower the severe risk in some areas of IL/IN if true.

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9 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Impressive rear inflow jet and cold pool - ARR dewpoint down to 62F with 40KT winds continuing well behind the outflow. SPC may  need to adjust the ENH to southern MI and another farther W into NE IA. 12Z guidance has the cold pool but they all handle it differently. Some show rapid recovery like the HRDPS, others show the recovery around the bubble high taking longer, which may lower the severe risk in some areas of IL/IN if true.

Mcs season is nightmare trying to predict. 

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Eastern Iowa clearing, except for what appears to be another storm blowing up in the far SE corner. Look like some sort of boundary flying northward on a collision course with the NE-SW oriented one (the front?) in west-central WI/SE MN.

That would be the outflow and modified air from the MCS down south.


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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


That would be the outflow and modified air from the MCS down south.


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I figured as much, the question is what will that boundary do when it hits the front and will that airmass be able to recover? Sometimes these organized cold pools can screw things up even with clearing (case in point 6/22/15 which was supposed to be a WI event from Day 3 but ended up in IL as far as :twister:).

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1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

Looks like a wake low is developing behind the line. Pressure falls in the western burbs now with gusty SE winds developing.

1396643411_ScreenShot2021-08-11at10_55_20AM.png.6319c2f8da4f0d8758e5b580c1536ec3.png

A well defined MCV was evident for a while on DVN/MKX/ILX/IWX.

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  • Hoosier changed the title to August 9-12, 2021 Severe Threats

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