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Central PA - Summer 2021


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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Does not take long to dry up. 

No, and it was a sneaky dry stretch. I was actually kind of surprised to realize this morning that we’ve gone 10 days with almost no rain. I checked 3 weather stations close to me, and none of them had more than .10” for that entire stretch.

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9 minutes ago, Newman said:

Severe storms tomorrow, tornado threat too

 

 

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Thanks.  Western half of PA in marginal for storms today as well.  

Speaking of things that snuck up on me. Wonder if tomorrow goes ENH for anyone.

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9 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

 

Speaking of things that snuck up on me. Wonder if tomorrow goes ENH for anyone.

Although modeling looks very active for pop up showers, the typical Cape numbers are not all that impressive in several I just randomly checked...including near you.   Temps are fairly moderate as well.  Not even showing any 90's today now.   Mid 80's tomorrow. 

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33 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think someone complained as I saw a Green Tagger at the bottom of the list and then an hour later MJS said his post was gone.  

Its the new norm.  Sad but true.  We've all seen some fiesty debates here and other places, but now those with keyboard power can control the conversation....and as i watched Johns Hopkins's Dr Makary (and others) questioning the CDC and some of its inconsistencies....I hope the keyboard cops think about it before they hit the delete/ban buttons.

Like it or not, there are many varying opinions about why the change in mask usage is being forced upon us.  If you think politics isn't part of it....well, I REALLY feel for you.  

If you dont see me for a while.....hello communism.     

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Although modeling looks very active for pop up showers, the typical Cape numbers are not all that impressive in several I just randomly checked...including near you.   Temps are fairly moderate as well.  Not even showing any 90's today now.   Mid 80's tomorrow. 

CTP seems a little more bullish on the severe potential tomorrow than PBZ. They even have the severe wording in point/zone forecasts. PBZ says primarily showers with a few thunderstorms.

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13 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Surprised it was removed since others (like myself) had posted stuff.    I did see a moderator in this forum an hour or two ago.

 

10 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I didn't see your post, but I'm sorry it was removed. :( I don't know why you were singled out. 

Hmmmmm so it seems maybe someone just reported it to a moderator who then came and removed it??  Is that all it takes for a post to be permanently removed, someone simply not liking it?  I didn't think there was anything incendiary about it.  I mean, it even got a like from @paweather haha.  Again, I agree it was too long but didn't think that was grounds for removal.  I always try and come from a place of reason and data, with a little opinion sprinkled in ha.  Heck, I recall when the first major worldwide data dump on covid came way back when from the Italian Ministry of Health and I was all over it haha.  You know, the one that first showed us that the average age of death from covid was roughly equivalent to the overall age of death in the population at-large and that covid victims had an average of ~2.5 comorbidities.  Data that was only reaffirmed over time by other countries.  Also a bit disappointing that I can never view that post anywhere again, even privately, because I did put a good bit of effort into it.  I digress but I just abhor censorship of any type, particularly for reasonable arguments that were only made after numerous others had broached the topic.

Anyway, looks like I bottomed out at 64 again last night.  Severe potential seems to be increasing for tomorrow, will have to look into that a little deeper.  Might even have a stray storm around today, will someone get lucky?  Stay tuned!

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14 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

CTP seems a little more bullish on the severe potential tomorrow than PBZ. They even have the severe wording in point/zone forecasts. PBZ says primarily showers with a few thunderstorms.

I think some of that may be due to timing, right?  The main area of forcing goes through you guys in the AM. 

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53 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

My dry period is a lot better than even last year and of course nothing like out West.  Last year was the worst drought this area had ever seen according to the locals.   Some 3-4 months with just 1" of rain total between all the months.  So my comments about drought and dry are more about saving the grass vs. a major drought.  

Man, it's always easy to forget just how different conditions can be in locations not separated by much distance.  I'm only like 60 miles northeast of you and last summer I had 3.6" in June, 4.07" in July, and 8.34" in August.  This summer has not been nearly as kind to me.  I had forgotten just how rough you guys had it out that way.  Hopefully you don't see anything near that bad again.

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12 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

 

Hmmmmm so it seems maybe someone just reported it to a moderator who then came and removed it??  Is that all it takes for a post to be permanently removed, someone simply not liking it?  I didn't think there was anything incendiary about it.  I mean, it even got a like from @paweather haha.  Again, I agree it was too long but didn't think that was grounds for removal.  I always try and come from a place of reason and data, with a little opinion sprinkled in ha.  Heck, I recall when the first major worldwide data dump on covid came way back when from the Italian Ministry of Health and I was all over it haha.  You know, the one that first showed us that the average age of death from covid was roughly equivalent to the overall age of death in the population at-large and that covid victims had an average of ~2.5 comorbidities.  Data that was only reaffirmed over time by other countries.  Also a bit disappointing that I can never view that post anywhere again, even privately, because I did put a good bit of effort into it.  I digress but I just abhor censorship of any type, particularly for reasonable arguments that were only made after numerous others had broached the topic.

Anyway, looks like I bottomed out at 64 again last night.  Severe potential seems to be increasing for tomorrow, will have to look into that a little deeper.  Might even have a stray storm around today, will someone get lucky?  Stay tuned!

I saw the name of the Green Tagger and can PM you with it if you want to ask them for a reason.

 

 

 

 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I think some of that may be to timing, right?  The main area of forcing goes through you guys in the AM. 

Correct, some models significantly weaken the MCS coming out of the Upper Midwest (which makes sense given timing), while others don’t weaken it as much.

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1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Man, it's always easy to forget just how different conditions can be in locations not separated by much distance.  I'm only like 60 miles northeast of you and last summer I had 3.6" in June, 4.07" in July, and 8.34" in August.  This summer has not been nearly as kind to me.  I had forgotten just how rough you guys had it out that way.  Hopefully you don't see anything near that bad again.

My dry period started the second week of May and stretched until some point in August though I forget exact details of when it started to rain again.  This year is a good example of those convection winners and losers.  I have done "ok" the last month but still below average (probably same as you but maybe you are a little less ok) while Harrisburg has more than doubled their average.   Adams county had it tough as well last year. 

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11 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

 

Hmmmmm so it seems maybe someone just reported it to a moderator who then came and removed it??  Is that all it takes for a post to be permanently removed, someone simply not liking it?  I didn't think there was anything incendiary about it. 

New World Order...

feelings > facts.  

 

Did anyone hear or see all of the Biden/others posts regarding getting the vaccine and you wont need a mask?  I did.....and he was pretty adamant in his stance when he said it....now a few months later and they realize how much power they can levy on us....and whalla. 

I'm not even sure if you can google them, because your search engines are now being censored.....

again, if you think I'm wrong....I feel for you.

Just some things to chew on while we wait for other storms to brew....

 

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20 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

New World Order...

feelings > facts.  

 

Did anyone hear or see all of the Biden/others posts regarding getting the vaccine and you wont need a mask?  I did.....and he was pretty adamant in his stance when he said it....now a few months later and they realize how much power they can levy on us....and whalla. 

I'm not even sure if you can google them, because your search engines are now being censored.....

again, if you think I'm wrong....I feel for you.

Just some things to chew on while we wait for other storms to brew....

 

This might be the post of the year...and it has nothing to do with snow and everything to do with life in general. 

It needed to be said. 

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29 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

New World Order...

feelings > facts.  

 

Did anyone hear or see all of the Biden/others posts regarding getting the vaccine and you wont need a mask?  I did.....and he was pretty adamant in his stance when he said it....now a few months later and they realize how much power they can levy on us....and whalla. 

I'm not even sure if you can google them, because your search engines are now being censored.....

again, if you think I'm wrong....I feel for you.

Just some things to chew on while we wait for other storms to brew....

 

I remember him saying that but I think if someone wants to question what has happened it is more along the lines of the CDC being inept in how they handled it in May and now.   It was bound to fail with the way the CDC presented the info in May.  One could argue it was them speaking for the President but not sure I believe that.  The CDC has not done well with this since the start of 2020 in my opinion.   

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I remember him saying that but I think if someone wants to question what has happened it is more along the lines of the CDC being inept in how they handled it in May and now.   It was bound to fail with the way the CDC presented the info in May.  One could argue it was them speaking for the President but not sure I believe that.  The CDC has not done well with this since the start of 2020.   

That was my point yesterday...the ineptness of the CDC.

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I remember him saying that but I think if someone wants to question what has happened it is more along the lines of the CDC being inept in how they handled it in May and now.   It was bound to fail with the way the CDC presented the info in May.  One could argue it was them speaking for the President but not sure I believe that.  The CDC has not done well with this since the start of 2020 in my opinion.   

 

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

That was my point yesterday...the ineptness of the CDC.

The only thing I’ll say to this is, we don’t bash meteorologists when they’re wrong or reverse course on something.

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I remember him saying that but I think if someone wants to question what has happened it is more along the lines of the CDC being inept in how they handled it in May and now.   It was bound to fail with the way the CDC presented the info in May.  One could argue it was them speaking for the President but not sure I believe that.  The CDC has not done well with this since the start of 2020 in my opinion.   

fair points Bubbles....can't ague w/ your statements at all. 

People who feel duped for the reversal, have every right to do so.  The facts AND the data support their frustrations.  

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Actually, that has happened in here in the past as well. 

Not saying it doesn’t happen, but in general I’m not a fan of criticizing people who are “experts” in their field when they are wrong about something we as a human race don’t fully understand or that inherently has a lot of uncertainty. I would argue that weather and covid are very similar in that regard.

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10 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

 

The only thing I’ll say to this is, we don’t bash meteorologists when they’re wrong or reverse course on something.

Your point is always an interesting one as Met's are one of the few positions that can get away with being wrong so often because the science is so inexact.  So you could apply that to scientists as well I guess.  But the May guidance was too rosy and too pointed toward making people happy when in reality there was always a chance masking and restrictions where coming back because our understanding of the virus is too limited.  

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Your point is always an interesting one as Met's are one of the few positions that can get away with being wrong so often because the science is so inexact.  So you could apply that to scientists as well I guess.  But the May guidance was too rosy and too pointed toward making people happy when in reality there was always a good chance masking and restrictions where coming back.  

As with all politics-adjacent topics, the discourse is controlled by people who have spent their whole lives telling the people who cast votes for them what they want to hear.

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4 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Not saying it doesn’t happen, but in general I’m not a fan of criticizing people who are “experts” in their field when they are wrong about something we as a human race don’t fully understand or that inherently has a lot of uncertainty. I would argue that weather and covid are very similar in that regard.

Oh I agree with you more than you know. I don't think it's "right" but my point yesterday was, and is, that the CDC (rightly or wrongly) has caused a lot of confusion and frustration. Hey, it might have been for the right reasons, but that doesn't change the impact the changes have had on the end user. 

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Just now, pasnownut said:

Then Pittsburgh is much nicer to them then round here...:P

I mean weather enthusiasts with even a moderate amount of understanding of the topic. I’m not talking about the jackasses who comment on NWS Facebook/Twitter posts. Pittsburghers bitch about weather, sports, anything more than most.

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Your point is always an interesting one as Met's are one of the few positions that can get away with being wrong so often because the science is so inexact.  So you could apply that to scientists as well I guess.  But the May guidance was too rosy and too pointed toward making people happy when in reality there was always a good chance masking and restrictions where coming back.  

Yes. They went way too far way too fast. (though, a lot in the country were asking for what they got)

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