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Central PA - Summer 2021


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16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Trough just keeps "regenerating" on the MR gfs.  Its not sharp but a great Ridge Block.   Blue Florida.  

 

image.png.e0fe618754e3bfd9952c340c1395fd3f.png

Not often you see that kind of blocking pattern in summer. I will relish every minute of it.

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4 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Not often you see that kind of blocking pattern in summer. I will relish every minute of it.

The ridge asserted itself a bit more into the 200's.   Totally different look than the 0 and 6Z.  With a new trough pressing down from the north and the ride limited to just more of a Northeast Atlantic ridge.

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The ridge asserted itself a bit more into the 200's. 

By then there will have been days upon days of cool temperatures and sub-60 dewpoints. 
 

Will be interesting to see how that pattern evolves and how far onshore that ridge axis can get.

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2 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

By then there will have been days upon days of cool temperatures and sub-60 dewpoints. 

Oh no doubt.  I was doing PBP but its all good news on the GFS.  We would almost forget what real summer feels like by the end of next week.   And like I added to the other post, its more of a Northern position ridge so frankly I am not afraid of that.  Just need to find rain somehow though.     The new trough is appearing to try and sweep in for the following weekend. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Oh no doubt.  I was doing PBP but its all good news on the GFS.  We would almost forget what real summer feels like by the end of next week.   And like I added to the other post, its more of a Northern position ridge so frankly I am not afraid of that.  Just need to find rain somehow though.     The new trough is appearing to try and sweep in for the following weekend. 

That is a well defined frontal boundary. Maybe if it stalls out we can get some rain.

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

If we have to wait until then I will be in D1 and down at the bank to borrow money for the water bill. 

8/7 precip. Definitely not a good look for many, except a bullseye very close to a certain location:7152B899-CB37-4247-851D-8CDB4D1FFBDA.thumb.jpeg.29da1bfccfb9ea0a1ac984af89c3178c.jpeg

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So out in fantasy land, the ridge trying to be more Northern positioned puts the kibosh on PA hot weather like it was showing earlier.  Some near 90 temps but nothing like the 100 degree temps forecasted at 6Z.  Bowling ball troughs keep coming out of Canada and keep the ridge at bay.    No sign of a ridge setting up for us.  It will probably be back and forth though. 

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17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

So out in fantasy land, the ridge trying to be more Northern positioned puts the kibosh on PA hot weather like it was showing earlier.  Some near 90 temps but nothing like the 100 degree temps forecasted at 6Z.  Bowling ball troughs keep coming out of Canada and keep the ridge at bay.    No sign of a ridge setting up for us.  It will probably be back and forth though. 

Same old, same old. Pattern we’ve had all summer.

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Yep.  I am surprised it backed off with no sign of it anymore.  Ridge back in the west and Atlantic ridge pushed back again.  From highs in the 100's back to the mid 80's.  Maybe too fast.  

Don’t some people swear by the 0z/12z and consider the 6z/18z useless? I don’t really see it that way, but the runs that seem to bring the heat are almost always 6z/18z.

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yep.  I am surprised it backed off with no sign of it anymore.  Ridge back in the west and Atlantic ridge pushed back again.  From highs in the 100's back to the mid 80's.  Maybe too fast.  

Also, if the CMC puts any ridge close to us the first weekend of August, it won’t be the Atlantic ridge but the Midwest one.

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1 minute ago, canderson said:

Some do, but some also pay to eat at Old Country Buffet so, ya know. 

God, I hope buffets are largely a casualty of covid. Places where you can not only increase your risk of getting covid, but increase your risk of death if you do get covid.

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5 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Don’t some people swear by the 0z/12z and consider the 6z/18z useless? I don’t really see it that way, but the runs that seem to bring the heat are almost always 6z/18z.

I do not buy those thought processes.  I do buy that it comes out so often that our opinions can be clouded by all the swings.   FWIW, 0Z had the same heat as 6Z as to today. 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I do not buy those thought processes.  I do buy that it comes out so often that our opinions can be clouded by all the swings.   FWIW, 0Z had the same heat as 6Z as to today. 

I don’t buy them either, but devil’s advocate and all. And yes, I do think the two overnight GFS runs were almost identical.

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Oh boy...CDC announcements coming in 75 min. 

Covid cases in PA have taken back off (basically 1,000 today - six times the month's daliy average). 

Delta is gonna ravage the unvaccinated areas of this state (I can name counties, but I'll be nice)

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2 minutes ago, canderson said:

Covid cases in PA have taken back off (basically 1,000 today - six times the month's daliy average). 

Delta is gonna ravage the unvaccinated areas of this state (I can name counties, but I'll be nice)

Most of CTP, unfortunately.

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2 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Meh, still day 12 fantasy land as far as I’m concerned.

 

2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Upper air pattern as depicted by the GFS doesnt inspire a ton of confidence out in la la land, but from 8/6 and beyond it does try to back in to the west and become a feature to contend with.  

 

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

I felt sentimental as during the winter its a regular contributor.  Most of the MR models are talking 7-10 days of cooler weather so I am taking that as the big news right now and thought it fun to see so many 40's on it.  The GFS and Euro have been building the ridge over us in fantasy land for weeks now and they both keep pushing it back so personally I am waiting until its within 200 hours before too much fretting.   With that said, if it takes getting near a ridge to get rain we may have to do it.  The cool depictions are too dry. 

Ugh I know, I completely agree and am rarely one to tout anything beyond like 5-7 days out.  In fact, I basically pay no mind to the spin-the-wheel potion of the model runs but alas we all have moments of weakness haha.  Sure enough, 12z GFS changes things yet again.  I will give myself ten lashings for jumping the gun on this one. 

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