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Central PA - Summer 2021


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7 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

To the extent that the elevation thing could actually even negate the UHI effect, which I would assume was rather minimal in 1881. As I said, it’s more an issue of the location of official weather observations being moved from one place to a vastly different place. (But isn’t that true at MDT too?)

Yes it is.  If you recall a while back I had a post that linked to an article detailing the observing history of Harrisburg.  To say it is muddled and inconsistent would be an understatement ha.

Edit:  For those who want to relive the madness...... https://www.weather.gov/media/ctp/ClimateStationHistory/Harrisburg LCD Site History.pdf

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14 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Really??  Maybe I'm just out of the loop a bit on all this but I just assumed kids would be going back to school completely as normal this year.  I mean, I live in one of the largest suburban-type districts in the state (Hempfield) and I don't believe they are requiring any masks of kids this year.  Are there school districts in some places that are still talking about not being in-person this year?  Again, that would be shocking to me.  Well, save anywhere outside of San Francisco haha.

Like I mentioned, Maryland just announced that it is strongly recommended all non vaxxed kids wear masks.  Since kids under 12 cannot get a vax that means they want all kids under 12 to wear masks.  The state does not have the authority to require it though.    Many of the largest schools districts in the country have already announced masks for all kids which is why I said it was assumed kids would be wearing them....but I guess some schools districts might not.    I know NY, Chicago and LA will require masks for all kids (LA requires all adults to wear masks when indoors). 

Not sure about in person or not but think most are going in person.  

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Once past this Wednesday, day after day of highs the 60's and 70's and lows in the 40's and 50's.   Think MDT had one day over 80 scattered in. 

The more times this occurs on run after run, model after model (to varying degrees), the more I’m believing it isn’t a mirage.

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17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Like I mentioned, Maryland just announced that it is strongly recommended all non vaxxed kids wear masks.  Since kids under 12 cannot get a vax that means they want all kids under 12 to wear masks.  The state does not have the authority to require it though.    Many of the largest schools districts in the country have already announced masks for all kids which is why I said it was assumed kids would be wearing them....but I guess some schools districts might not.    I know NY, Chicago and LA will require masks for all kids (LA requires all adults to wear masks when indoors). 

Not sure about in person or not but think most are going in person.  

Thanks Bubbler, appreciate the discussion.  One thing I would add, in regards to the comment you made earlier about your county only being ~1/3 vaccinated, keep in mind that this doesn't include the relatively large segment of the population that has already had Covid.  It irks me at times how the national discourse will completely leave out the number of people who have already had Covid when discussing herd immunity or policy decisions and whatnot.  I believe the current estimates put that figure around 100M, a significant portion of whom have not been vaccinated but would still have immunity that is likely as strong or stronger than that which is provided for by the vaccine, and perhaps even longer-lasting as well.  There's a lot we don't know about the reaches of natural immunity yet and it will likely vary by individual but it is certainly substantial for much of the population, and when combined with the roughly 190M people who have at least been partially vaccinated, leads to a better picture than what is sometimes portrayed.  At some point, sooner than I believe most let on, Covid will simply run out of enough hosts as to remain meaningful; rather, it will likely continue on it perpetuity at some low levels of transmission and may even just be our new flu going forward.  But its initial run through the population, which is what allows it to do its damage, is steadily coming to an end.  Just a massive numbers game, really.  Sorry for rambling and I'm not implying that you didn't know any of the foregoing.  I promise, no more non-weather stuff from me today haha.

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6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Thanks Bubbler, appreciate the discussion.  One thing I would add, in regards to the comment you made earlier about your county only being ~1/3 vaccinated, keep in mind that this doesn't include the relatively large segment of the population that has already had Covid.  It irks me at times how the national discourse will completely leave out the number of people who have already had Covid when discussing herd immunity or policy decisions and whatnot.  I believe the current estimates put that figure around 100M, a significant portion of whom have not been vaccinated but would still have immunity that is likely as strong or stronger than that which is provided for by the vaccine, and perhaps even longer-lasting as well.  There's a lot we don't know about the reaches of natural immunity yet and it will likely vary by individual but it is certainly substantial for much of the population, and when combined with the roughly 190M people who have at least been partially vaccinated, leads to a better picture than what is sometimes portrayed.  At some point, sooner than I believe most let on, Covid will simply run out of enough hosts as to remain meaningful; rather, it will likely continue on it perpetuity at some low levels of transmission and may even just be our new flu going forward.  But its initial run through the population, which is what allows it to do its damage, is steadily coming to an end.  Just a massive numbers game, really.  Sorry for rambling and I'm not implying that you didn't know any of the foregoing.  I promise, no more non-weather stuff from me today haha.

Thanks and appreciate the reply.  I am going to reply and agree that we simply do not know who is or not immune and that makes decision making tough.  I think immune is a bad word.  Lots of fully vaxxed people are coming down with Covid now.  Just not as severe as non vaxxed people it appears.   But the main point in my reply is going to be that the Covid we will be dealing with this fall is worse than the one from last year.  Transmission happens more easily and for some reason, no one knows why as far as I know, younger people are much more susceptible to getting hospital sick.  I have read articles that suggest it is because a lot of older people are vaxxed but that does not add up to me as younger people did not get as sick with 2020 Covid.   Hospitals in Florida are filling up with 30 and 40 year old people and some hospitals are actually more filled now than anytime in the past.  

So I guess to me the best advice I give anyone is to not let your guard down and not to look at last winter as to a guide of what is coming this fall. 

 

 

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48 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Now this is something we can all celebrate together ha.  Also, just noticed someone on Cocorahs near Nottingham in Chester County recorded 5.18" yesterday, yahtzee. 

It started raining down that way about this time yesterday and just kept going. Thing is, it rained hard but from what I could tell, not the real excessive stuff that we sometimes see. It just rained "hard" for hour upon hour. 

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57 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

The more times this occurs on run after run, model after model (to varying degrees), the more I’m believing it isn’t a mirage.

Another trend I noticed lately, on the GFS, is that it goes with this cool summer look until the very end then throws a 95-100 day in there day 15 and 16.  Its been doing that for several days now.  Kicking it back each day. 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Another trend I noticed lately, on the GFS, is that it goes with this cool summer look until the very end then throws a 95-100 day in there day 15 and 16.  Its been doing that for several days now.  Kicking it back each day. 

I’ve noticed that too. There’s always at least a day or two of fantasy heat, but as the days and weeks pass it stays in fantasy land.

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10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Another trend I noticed lately, on the GFS, is that it goes with this cool summer look until the very end then throws a 95-100 day in there day 15 and 16.  Its been doing that for several days now.  Kicking it back each day. 

 

7 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I’ve noticed that too. There’s always at least a day or two of fantasy heat, but as the days and weeks pass it stays in fantasy land.

Sounds a lot like winter storms...

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Well these lines would be good but not for 240 :-).    The mostly sunny comment was a sarcastic c omment on the zones.  For the third time in a week or two, some will be having a wet mostly sunny. 

There’s been less than a full hour of sun here all day.   It was obvious from checking the vis sat this morn that we weren’t seeing much sun.    
 

hancock storm just triggered a warning 

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4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

There’s been less than a full hour of sun here all day.   It was obvious from checking the vis sat this morn that we weren’t seeing much sun.    
 

hancock storm just triggered a warning 

Yea, its not been mostly sunny here either but was not going to be too picky.  But when it rains or rain comes nearby on a Mostly Sunny zone then I may point it out.   Hancock storm is moving a bit soo south for me to get a piece unfortunately.  

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1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

There’s been less than a full hour of sun here all day.   It was obvious from checking the vis sat this morn that we weren’t seeing much sun.    
 

hancock storm just triggered a warning 

We almost got saddled with an S but officially going with a T when the last line came through. 

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