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Obviously can't really trust the models but the potential for a decent soaking to start off the month.. Still a couple months away from the rainy season as October is the wettest month according to NOAA.. Actually we see more precipitation in fall/winter then we do in spring/summer if those numbers are to be believed lol

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qpf_acc.us_ne - 2021-07-31T122454.209.png

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2 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Gonna be staying close to the Outer Harbor area tomorrow.  Per the IWRC significant Great Lake waterspout outbreak is possible tomorrow.  Remember… “don’t intercept a waterspout”.

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Even better than a shelf cloud would be a waterspout with my drone. I'll be at the vegan fest downtown tomorrow afternoon, gotta remember to bring it.

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14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Even better than a shelf cloud would be a waterspout with my drone. I'll be at the vegan fest downtown tomorrow afternoon, gotta remember to bring it.

What are you thinking as far as timing tomorrow?  Really we will have favorable conditions almost all day long, but the EARLY morning like crack of dawn through 11ish looks best to me.  NWS is mentioning later Sunday as the cold pool grows, so maybe sunrise +2 hours and sunset -2 hours tomorrow? 

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1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

What are you thinking as far as timing tomorrow?  Really we will have favorable conditions almost all day long, but the EARLY morning like crack of dawn through 11ish looks best to me.  NWS is mentioning later Sunday as the cold pool grows, so maybe sunrise +2 hours and sunset -2 hours tomorrow? 

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We picked up 0.20" of rain overnight, some more showers heading this way..

Looks like fishing season is underway, took me 15 minutes to get a bottle of water at bryne dairy lol Give it a couple months and I'll be avoiding DT at all cost lol

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Wow, I'm actual mad right now I drove all the way down to nearly silvercreek thinking it would be along the southern edges.

I just missed it.  Was rolling into the park right as it was wrapping up.  Almost face planted rushing out of the car..

 

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This period will feature a pattern change across North America
as lingering ridging in the west and weak troughing in the east
transitions to at least a general zonal flow...or flips altogether
by next week Sunday/Monday. With surface-based ridging remaining
firmly anchored over the western Atlantic...this evolution in
the pattern will allow for a slow but persistent influx of
increasing amounts of heat and humidity into our region. This
will translate into conditions turning increasingly sultry as
we work through this period...with daytime highs climbing to at
least the upper 80s/lower 90s by next week Monday...and surface
dewpoints also reaching to around the 70 degree mark in most
areas.

With respect to precipitation chances...weak impulses circulating
through the larger-scale flow aloft will combine with the building
heat and humidity to yield the potential for some widely scattered
to scattered showers/storms each day...with these generally coming
each afternoon/early evening in tandem with peak heating. In general
the best opportunities for these will be found in the vicinity of
any lake and terrain-driven boundaries that develop...though the
passage of any more well-defined shortwaves could help result in
better areal coverage. While the exact timing of these remains
difficult to pin down this far out...it is possible that one such
feature could cross our region during Saturday...with increasing
agreement on the this noted between the various medium range
guidance packages.
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