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Upstate/Eastern New York


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17 minutes ago, winter_rules said:

That’s amazing and terrible.  Just a fluke of bad luck, I assume.  

Just what happens when the lake breeze boundaries collide this time of year.  A bit unusual with the trajectory, usually see a more west to east line from NF / Lewiston area out through Lockport.  

 

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Thanks to this front and clouds temps "chilling" in the mid 60s, I'm sure we'll warm a little this afternoon especially if we see some sun..

 

Sizzlecuse still in the low 80s under SW flow..

Fulton in the low 70s under NW flow..

namussfc15wbg (1).gif

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6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Oh my gosh...Syracuse kills me. 22 degrees warmer than Watertown and 26 degrees warmer than Fort Drum. 12 Degrees warmer than Fulton and 8 degrees warmer than Rome. Seriously, this place must sit above Hell.

In terms of climate it has the best of all worlds. 

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Couple tidbits from the afternoon Disco..

After this evening`s convection dies down, a break in the action
will ensue until the approach of a stronger surface low and
associated right entrance region of the upper jet for Thursday.
Strong large scale ascent coupled with PWAT values up to near 2
inches feeding northward from the tropicals and modest
instability will allow for what looks like several surges of
rainfall across the area on Thursday. Widespread 1-2 inch
amounts of rainfall seem likely with this system as it slides
through the area on Thursday.

A slow wind down to showers seems likely Thursday night as a
trailing wave keeps some degree of synoptic ascent plaguing the
area into Thursday night.

 

 

The pattern will become more active again early next week as a mid
level closed low evolves over the central US, forcing the frontal
zone across the Ohio Valley back northward into the eastern Great
Lakes. This will bring increasing rain chances early next week as
humidity and instability move back into the region with increasing
southwesterly return flow around high pressure anchored off the
southeast coast.

The GFS and subsequently the NBM looks too fast with the arrival of
rain chances over the weekend, and our preference is to go with the
slower ECMWF/GEM solution. With this in mind, a chance of showers
will arrive in Western NY by Sunday afternoon, with a better chance
of showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday night through Tuesday
areawide as the approaching mid level closed low forces a low level
boundary to stall near or over the eastern Great Lakes.
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26 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Couple tidbits from the afternoon Disco..

After this evening`s convection dies down, a break in the action
will ensue until the approach of a stronger surface low and
associated right entrance region of the upper jet for Thursday.
Strong large scale ascent coupled with PWAT values up to near 2
inches feeding northward from the tropicals and modest
instability will allow for what looks like several surges of
rainfall across the area on Thursday. Widespread 1-2 inch
amounts of rainfall seem likely with this system as it slides
through the area on Thursday.

A slow wind down to showers seems likely Thursday night as a
trailing wave keeps some degree of synoptic ascent plaguing the
area into Thursday night.

 

 

The pattern will become more active again early next week as a mid
level closed low evolves over the central US, forcing the frontal
zone across the Ohio Valley back northward into the eastern Great
Lakes. This will bring increasing rain chances early next week as
humidity and instability move back into the region with increasing
southwesterly return flow around high pressure anchored off the
southeast coast.

The GFS and subsequently the NBM looks too fast with the arrival of
rain chances over the weekend, and our preference is to go with the
slower ECMWF/GEM solution. With this in mind, a chance of showers
will arrive in Western NY by Sunday afternoon, with a better chance
of showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday night through Tuesday
areawide as the approaching mid level closed low forces a low level
boundary to stall near or over the eastern Great Lakes.

went from drought to non-stop rain and clouds. 

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Some decent storms/showers moving through CNY, actually seeing a few flashes of lightning and a little thunder.. Models don't have much here till tomorrow afternoon so not expecting much out of this batch..

WUNIDS_map - 2021-07-07T234621.607.gif

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I was a bit surprised by this current thunderstorm. There's actually quite a bit of thunder. Just had a sharp flash and that deep crack of thunder. It must have hit very close by. I live on a hill above Baldwinsville and the radio tower is nearby ("higher" elevation here) so I wouldn't be surprised if it hit that.

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35 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I was a bit surprised by this current thunderstorm. There's actually quite a bit of thunder. Just had a sharp flash and that deep crack of thunder. It must have hit very close by. I live on a hill above Baldwinsville and the radio tower is nearby ("higher" elevation here) so I wouldn't be surprised if it hit that.

I heard some thunder also, but not that much.  Hopefully this bit of rain tonight sets us up for a big hot steamer tomorrow! :lmao:

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20 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

12z nam seems to be dialing back the rain quite a bit in the first few frames already. 

Let’s see if the Amherst/Snyder rain shield holds up today. So far so good. Radar showing solid batch of rain sliding off to our west and another batch forming to our southeast that will miss. Was hoping for a meaty batch of moderate rain for at least a few hours but might have to settle for pop up quick hitters. 

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