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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2021 OBS Thread


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5 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Using the GRLevel3 app/prog and the TPHL radar site. The WPIX site is down but there are others in the area...   

app.jpg

Thanks. I've got Radarscope on PC but it doesn't show the kind of resolution/coverage/smoothing that GRL3 appears to. I might have to look into that.

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Just now, CoolHandMike said:

Thanks. I've got Radarscope on PC but it doesn't show the kind of resolution/coverage/smoothing that GRL3 appears to. I might have to look into that.

It's pretty solid.

I meant KDIX above not WPIX...screw up on my part.

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14 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

Thanks. I've got Radarscope on PC but it doesn't show the kind of resolution/coverage/smoothing that GRL3 appears to. I might have to look into that.

HurricaneAgnes has been using GRLevel3 longer than myself so most likely knows more about the ins/outs of the  program than myself...   

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Another point, anything near an inch tonight will cause flooding again on the Little Lehigh Creek. Why is there no flash flood watch issued?  A radar out of NJ is not the only tool in the tool chest for forecasting possible flooding.  Look at the amount of precip recorded each hourover the last 24 hours on Thursday- Fridays storm at both airports.  What about the USGS digital  stream gauges?  They do exist. A flood advisory should have been issued after 12 hours of continuous rains. Two + inch rains floods creeks. That is a no brainer. Spring Creek Rd was closed all day in Lower Macungie Township from flooding. I guess the Lehigh Valley is not in the Mt. Holly area.  Forecasters  are too worried about discussing potential riptides to mention the two- three inches of rain that fell across the Lehigh Valley/ Quakertown area  on Thursday- Friday in their weather discussion. There is almost a million people that live in that particular forecast area. Priorities need to be reviewed.

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11 hours ago, Albedoman said:

Another point, anything near an inch tonight will cause flooding again on the Little Lehigh Creek. Why is there no flash flood watch issued?  A radar out of NJ is not the only tool in the tool chest for forecasting possible flooding.  Look at the amount of precip recorded each hourover the last 24 hours on Thursday- Fridays storm at both airports.  What about the USGS digital  stream gauges?  They do exist. A flood advisory should have been issued after 12 hours of continuous rains. Two + inch rains floods creeks. That is a no brainer. Spring Creek Rd was closed all day in Lower Macungie Township from flooding. I guess the Lehigh Valley is not in the Mt. Holly area.  Forecasters  are too worried about discussing potential riptides to mention the two- three inches of rain that fell across the Lehigh Valley/ Quakertown area  on Thursday- Friday in their weather discussion. There is almost a million people that live in that particular forecast area. Priorities need to be reviewed.

"tHiS iS wHy No ReD tAgGeRs PoSt HeRe" 

 

Your post is spot on though. Really a poor showing by mt holly on Friday. 

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23 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

"tHiS iS wHy No ReD tAgGeRs PoSt HeRe" 

 

Your post is spot on though. Really a poor showing by mt holly on Friday. 

I never thought about that?  Hmmm...

Either way, looking forward to the possibility of some late night/after midnight/early morning storms. Something about late night storms which is pretty cool. Everyone is asleep, quiet then in the distance you hear the rumble of thunder with storms moving in...

74F /DP 64F with a decent breeze, not bad.

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3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I never thought about that?  Hmmm...

Either way, looking forward to the possibility of some late night/after midnight/early morning storms. Something about late night storms which is pretty cool. Everyone is asleep, quiet then in the distance you hear the rumble of thunder with storms moving in...

74F /DP 64F with a decent breeze, not bad.

Pretty interesting timing differences in the meso models for tonight. They all have a complex of storms coming though at some point. The WRF - ARW suite, the RGEM, HRRR and HRDPS have a complex coming through this evening around 00z - 03z time frame while the NAM suite and FV3(new NAM in beta right now) all have the complex coming through late night in the 03z - 06z time frame. I like the night time storms as well. I always enjoy how you get the lightning flashes well in advance and well after the storm. Feels like it always lingers longer because of that. 

 

Some meso models also show some pop up cells this afternoon around 95 and progressing east into NJ, will be interesting to see if that comes to fruition with the cloud cover in place this morning. Doesn't seem like too much instability in place yet.

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2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Pretty interesting timing differences in the meso models for tonight. They all have a complex of storms coming though at some point. The WRF - ARW suite, the RGEM, HRRR and HRDPS have a complex coming through this evening around 00z - 03z time frame while the NAM suite and FV3(new NAM in beta right now) all have the complex coming through late night in the 03z - 06z time frame. I like the night time storms as well. I always enjoy how you get the lightning flashes well in advance and well after the storm. Feels like it always lingers longer because of that. 

 

Some meso models also show some pop up cells this afternoon around 95 and progressing east into NJ, will be interesting to see if that comes to fruition with the cloud cover in place this morning. Doesn't seem like too much instability in place yet.

Same...seemed to get late night/ overnight storms more when I was younger?

Sun's out, temps and DPs rising, hopefully this will create a nice environment for storms at some point...

storms.jpg

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Here comes SPC -

Quote

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 270
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2021

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 270 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC001-011-017-025-029-037-041-043-045-055-067-071-075-077-079-
081-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-107-109-113-119-133-150100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0270.210614T1805Z-210615T0100Z/

PA
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                BERKS               BUCKS
CARBON               CHESTER             COLUMBIA
CUMBERLAND           DAUPHIN             DELAWARE
FRANKLIN             JUNIATA             LANCASTER
LEBANON              LEHIGH              LUZERNE
LYCOMING             MONROE              MONTGOMERY
MONTOUR              NORTHAMPTON         NORTHUMBERLAND
PERRY                PHILADELPHIA        SCHUYLKILL
SNYDER               SULLIVAN            UNION
YORK
$$
Quote

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 270
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2021

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 270 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NJC005-007-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-150100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0270.210614T1805Z-210615T0100Z/

NJ
.    NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BURLINGTON           CAMDEN              GLOUCESTER
HUNTERDON            MERCER              MIDDLESEX
MONMOUTH             MORRIS              OCEAN
SALEM                SOMERSET            SUSSEX
WARREN
$$
Quote

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 270
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2021

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 270 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

DEC003-150100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0270.210614T1805Z-210615T0100Z/

DE
.    DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

NEW CASTLE
$$

Currently a  muggy 81 with dp 69 and mostly cloudy.

ETA - The TS Warning is intriguing. :huh: I haven't had chance to see what that is about.

20210614-nws-severethunderstormwatch-phi-severethunderstormwarning-tropicalstormwwarning-severethunderstormwatch-phiarea.PNG

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1 minute ago, Birds~69 said:

^ Heard about this, this morning. Not that it will have any impact but may offer insight to this upcoming season...

82F / DP 66F

The trough here in the east will probably carry that away from the coast unless something happens and it gets cut off from the flow.  We got a long season to go although I don't expect it to eclipse last year.  CPC is forecasting ENSO neutral at least through the summer (where last year we were in La Niña) -

Quote
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
 
10 June 2021
 

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active

 

Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral is favored through the Northern Hemisphere summer (78% chance for the June-August season) and fall (50% chance for the September-November season).

ENSO-neutral conditions continued during May, with near-average sea surface temperatures observed across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. In the last week, the Niño indices were all at -0.2°C, except for the Niño-1+2 index, which was -0.4°C [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperature anomalies remained positive but decreased slightly [Fig. 3] due to the weakening of above-average subsurface temperatures around the thermocline in the central Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly and upper-level westerly wind anomalies extended across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. At the Date Line, tropical convection was mostly near average, and enhanced rainfall was evident over the western Pacific Ocean [Fig. 5]. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral conditions.

A majority of the models in the IRI/CPC plume predict ENSO-neutral to continue through the fall 2021 [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus generally agrees with this model outlook, although lower probabilities are assigned to El Niño during this period (remaining less than 10%). By the late fall and winter, La Niña chances increase to near 50%, reflecting the historical tendency for a second winter of La Niña following the first, and also the predictions from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble. However, these cooler conditions are predicted to exist for a short duration (3 overlapping seasons) and these predictions are still over 6 months into the future. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through the Northern Hemisphere summer (78% chance for the June-August season) and fall (50% chance for the September-November season; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 July 2021.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected].

 
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

 

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21 hours ago, Albedoman said:

Another point, anything near an inch tonight will cause flooding again on the Little Lehigh Creek. Why is there no flash flood watch issued?  A radar out of NJ is not the only tool in the tool chest for forecasting possible flooding.  Look at the amount of precip recorded each hourover the last 24 hours on Thursday- Fridays storm at both airports.  What about the USGS digital  stream gauges?  They do exist. A flood advisory should have been issued after 12 hours of continuous rains. Two + inch rains floods creeks. That is a no brainer. Spring Creek Rd was closed all day in Lower Macungie Township from flooding. I guess the Lehigh Valley is not in the Mt. Holly area.  Forecasters  are too worried about discussing potential riptides to mention the two- three inches of rain that fell across the Lehigh Valley/ Quakertown area  on Thursday- Friday in their weather discussion. There is almost a million people that live in that particular forecast area. Priorities need to be reviewed.

Ummm, okay. Some of your post is just simply wrong, we care about our entire forecast area. Perhaps reports of flooding were not received at the office. Not to say that this as an excuse (I was not working Friday, so not sure what happened), but our KDIX radar was taken offline starting last Friday for scheduled work on the dome.

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This will probably throw the tiny creek tributaries (like Cresheim Creek that feeds into the Wissahickon) right out of their banks in the lower lying areas.  I *know* those streets are probably flooding right now. :yikes:

It seems to be a fast mover though. Spigot has cut off as that heavy band has moved past me now.  Currently at 1.20".  Getting a lot of lightning although not much thunder.

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