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Severe Weather April 27-28th 2021


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The outflow boundary extends well into central TX as well, and there's also a lot more instability in that vicinity compared to here it seems. Maybe we'll get a local expansion of the tornado watch if the situation warrants it later on, but things might also get squall-ish by the time storms arrive here. Still a lot of time to watch the setup evolve locally, but I think the tornado threat will maximize off to our west/southwest where the watch currently covers.

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11 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

The outflow boundary extends well into central TX as well, and there's also a lot more instability in that vicinity compared to here it seems. Maybe we'll get a local expansion of the tornado watch if the situation warrants it later on, but things might also get squall-ish by the time storms arrive here. Still a lot of time to watch the setup evolve locally, but I think the tornado threat will maximize off to our west/southwest where the watch currently covers.

That's what the HRRR shows.

But I suspect things will have transitioned to a heavy rain threat by then.

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27 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

The outflow boundary extends well into central TX as well, and there's also a lot more instability in that vicinity compared to here it seems. Maybe we'll get a local expansion of the tornado watch if the situation warrants it later on, but things might also get squall-ish by the time storms arrive here. Still a lot of time to watch the setup evolve locally, but I think the tornado threat will maximize off to our west/southwest where the watch currently covers.

Yup. SPC originally had dfw included in the MD discussion and pulled it back.

 

 

This was the latest from FWD

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
203 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...New Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This afternoon through Thursday/

Scattered showers and storms continue to move across parts of North
TX. While intensity and coverage has decreased over the last couple
of hours, there`s still some lightning with some of the storms. This
activity will continue to move out of our area....as renewed showers
and storms develop later this afternoon and evening. Latest high-res
guidance continues to show this development with some of the
storms quickly becoming strong or severe. With plenty of low-level
moisture, instability, and shear the environment definitely
support this activity. Now, one thing that remains uncertain is
the influence of the morning convection to the coverage of severe
storms. Right now, most areas across the northwest and along the
Red River are pretty stable with the deep coverage of clouds.
However, we`ve been seeing some clouds clearing to our southwest,
just east of the dryline that could result in the first round of
re-development later this afternoon. If I were to pick, the first
area to monitor will be to our west/southwest (along/south I-20
and west of I-35). As storms develop and continue to move
northeastward, they will be capable of producing large hail,
isolated damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. A Tornado Watch
has been issued for the counties west of the DFW Metroplex until
02Z, and additional watches may be needed this evening. Still, the
coverage of severe weather will depend on how much the airmass is
able to destabilize. The initial development will likely remain
scattered, but as they move eastward this evening they will likely
merge into a cluster or line. While the severe potential remains
tonight, there will be a transition to a heavy rain flooding
threat through the overnight hours for all North and Central TX.
We`re still expecting rainfall totals through Thursday around
1-3" over most locations, but there could be isolated instances of 4-6"+
in some areas. A Flash Flood Watch might be needed if confidence
in widespread higher precip totals increases.

Showers and storms will continue into Thursday as the low level
pressure system moves across Central TX. The potential for lightning
and strong/severe weather will shift to the east/southeast by
Thursday afternoon.
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6 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Is this what I think it is? It's not in the best radar spot so I'm not sure. Velocity scans are inconclusive as well. 

 

KDFX radar is much closer to that storm, and it is severe warned, not tornado warned now.

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Very hazy as I follow supercells east of Del Rio, TX. I can either go east and play it close (hoping low level rotation tightens up after 00z) or take a more southeasterly route to attempt to see more structure. The road network is very limited.

 

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6 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Not liking that storm heading into the San Antonio metro...

SPC issued a MD about it... ouch 

   Mesoscale Discussion 0459
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0701 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

   Areas affected...South-central Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 120...

   Valid 290001Z - 290130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 120 continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for very large hail, wind damage and possibly a
   tornado will move eastward into the San Antonio Metro around 8 pm
   central.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar shows a cluster of severe storms
   located about 60 statute miles to the west of San Antonio. Ahead of
   these storms, the RAP is analying a pocket of strong instability
   with MLCAPE near 4500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear near 50 kt. This
   environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail.
   Hailstones of greater than 3 inches in diameter will be possible
   with the stronger updrafts. Wind gusts exceeding 65 knots may also
   occur, with the possibility of wind driven hail.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 04/29/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

 

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I don't know what happened to the velocity scans in the last minute, but it looks strong

 

Quote

At 721 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over D'Hanis, or near
Hondo, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and tennis ball size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.
 

IByG5kV.jpg

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Just now, Chargers09 said:

Getting nervous

Do you live in the northern or southern half of the metro? Also, this storm could produce some pretty large hail across the entire metro so if you have a vehicle outside you might wanna protect it while you can still go outside. Stay safe!

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