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Central PA - Spring 2021


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4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I try my best not to be critical of models, but this is why I questioned @Bubbler86 the other day about if any other model was showing our area going into the deep freeze in early April - the GFS to me seems to be REALLY lost these days...(at least the previous version)

When it gets out past 240 hours, there is not much more to look at for 2M temps except the GFS but yea everything is a grain of salt with GFS discussion.  With that said the CMC shows the freeze now as well and it has been doing much better with temps. So still something to watch. Temps do not break freezing on April 2nd/Good Friday.  

 

 

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2 hours ago, canderson said:

CTP echoes my wind thoughts but they're even more ominous that I imagined. 


 

Yep, High Wind Watch issued for western PA for gusts to 60.  Almost surely Advisory level if not the full High Wind product will be issued for the rest of us.

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

When it gets out past 240 hours, there is not much more to look at for 2M temps except the GFS but yea everything is a grain of salt with GFS discussion.  With that said the CMC shows the freeze now as well and it has been doing much better with temps. So still something to watch. Temps do not break freezing on April 2nd/Good Friday.  

 

 

Verbatim, the CMC shows a high somewhere around 27 at my location (KPIT) on 4/2. That’s nearly unprecedented, save for a high of 25 on April 18th!, 1875.

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1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

Verbatim, the CMC shows a high somewhere around 27 at my location (KPIT) on 4/2. That’s nearly unprecedented, save for a high of 25 on April 18th!, 1875.

Yea, its not at all a forecast but its along the same lines of the GFS frontal passage and freeze that it had a few days ago.   I have been a little selfish with judging the CMC and only looking in my back yard but it has been the far better predictor of low temps recently....at my place.  

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13 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Verbatim, the CMC shows a high somewhere around 27 at my location (KPIT) on 4/2. That’s nearly unprecedented, save for a high of 25 on April 18th!, 1875.

 

9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, its not at all a forecast but its along the same lines of the GFS frontal passage and freeze that it had a few days ago.   I have been a little selfish with judging the CMC and only looking in my back yard but it has been the far better predictor of low temps recently....at my place.  

4/6/1982 - I had a high of 29 with nearly 9" of windblown snow. Coldest day in April I've experienced...by a good bit. 

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12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

4/6/1982 - I had a high of 29 with nearly 9" of windblown snow. Coldest day in April I've experienced...by a good bit. 

I should clarify, “nearly unprecedented” meaning there is only one April day in Pittsburgh’s history with a high of 27 or lower. There are a fair number of April days in our records including two in 2007 where we didn’t make freezing.

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42 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Verbatim, the CMC shows a high somewhere around 27 at my location (KPIT) on 4/2. That’s nearly unprecedented, save for a high of 25 on April 18th!, 1875.

Euro has what appears to be the front passage but not nearly as cold.  GFS is sort of in between....has a couple night freezes. 

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8 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Well that escalated quickly, what was supposed to be a nuisance type rain is now looking like a hefty soaking.  For days on end my NWS P&C was only showing around a tenth of an inch of rain but now it's damn near an inch.  Almost all the models want to soak the area with well over an inch (particularly from lancaster and points east), although most of them failed to pick up on this potential until roughly the last 12-24 hours.  Pretty poor performance all around.

Delurking to say, I'm glad we're getting some slow, steady rain today. York County didn’t show up on the drought maps last year and there were numerous days where storms were in the forecast, but very little actually made it to my backyard. It became something of a hobby to be outside watching storms as they headed east, just missing us to our north, while my poor lawn was dying. Some parts of York county did fine, but our section of Mt Zion hill was definitely hurting for lack of rain. A lot of homes in this area (including mine) rely on wells, so even mild droughts cause a bit of stress for everyone.

I know the snow helped a bit and we’ve also had some rain over the past few weeks, but I don’t think we’ve recovered yet from last year’s deficit. I admit, I'm a Warminsta (sp?) and I love sunshine, but right now if the snow is over for the season, I'm hoping the sunny days will be scattered between lots of steady rain and thunderstorms.

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3 hours ago, Streak said:

Delurking to say, I'm glad we're getting some slow, steady rain today. York County didn’t show up on the drought maps last year and there were numerous days where storms were in the forecast, but very little actually made it to my backyard. It became something of a hobby to be outside watching storms as they headed east, just missing us to our north, while my poor lawn was dying. Some parts of York county did fine, but our section of Mt Zion hill was definitely hurting for lack of rain. A lot of homes in this area (including mine) rely on wells, so even mild droughts cause a bit of stress for everyone.

I know the snow helped a bit and we’ve also had some rain over the past few weeks, but I don’t think we’ve recovered yet from last year’s deficit. I admit, I'm a Warminsta (sp?) and I love sunshine, but right now if the snow is over for the season, I'm hoping the sunny days will be scattered between lots of steady rain and thunderstorms.

We were over 10" below normal for a large period of the summer last year.  I know it was scattered but for some last years drought was moderate to major.  

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2 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:
.86” total for me. The wind threat for friday looks like the real deal. You know CTP means business when they start throwing around terms like “isallobaric couplet” haha. 

It looks stronger the more north you go - which is usually the opposite. I fully expect multiple 50 mph gusts though.   

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18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

EC is down with the early April deep freeze now.   Nice frontal passage with big temp swing preceding it. 

CPC says nada.  Looks like something's gotta give...

814temp.new.gif

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28 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I would not bet on anything being right that far out... human or model but if it comes to fruition I would have to give the GFS a little credit for seeing it out in the 300+ hr range.  

As the saying goes, even a blind squirrel...

(can we still use that saying in this day and age?)

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46 minutes ago, FHS said:
 I have been reading spc convective outlook every day for years . I cant say I have ever seen wording like this. 


This is an uncommon, upper-echelon parameter space.  In such an
   environment, any relatively discrete supercells will be capable of
   multiple tornadoes, some long-tracked and strong to violent (EF2-5
   possible), with considerable destructive potential.  A very moist
   boundary layer also will reduce potential cold-pool/outflow strength
   via less subcloud evaporation, so that even closely spaced storms
   may have substantial tornado threats.  Forecast wind fields and
   model soundings reasonably suggest any sustained supercells and
   their tornadoes will be fast-moving (45-55 kt), with individual
   tornado paths nearly as long in miles as their duration in minutes.

   At any given time, boundary-layer instability should lessen with
   northward extent across the Ohio Valley.  Nonetheless, warm
   advection will help to spread at least weak surface-based buoyancy
   over the region prior to cold frontal passage, with similarly
   intense deep shear as farther south.  As such, the threat for severe
   winds and tornadoes in particular will extend into tonight,
   spreading up the Ohio Valley and toward the central/southern
   Appalachians.  Overall severe potential should lessen to "slight"
   and "marginal levels" late tonight near the Appalachians as the
   mid/upper system and surface low move away from remaining optimal
   instability, and flow aloft becomes more boundary-parallel.

A lot of people that know a lot about severe weather seem really concerned for what's about to transpire...

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Advisories hoisted. I expect house damage. Wind always overperforms advisories imo. 
 

Wind Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
1151 AM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021

PAZ027-028-036-037-041-042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-260400-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WI.Y.0002.210326T1400Z-210326T2200Z/
Mifflin-Juniata-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-
Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Lewistown, Mifflintown, Chambersburg,
Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, Laporte, Williamsport,
Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg,
Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon,
Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
1151 AM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
  result.
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