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Central PA - Spring 2021


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31 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

You should have seen it! Barns floating by me.....actually measured 9” in one ten minute period. ‘Twas wild! But yes you got me haha, fixed the post ^_^

Haha.  I have tons of typos so in no position to say anything but the phrase quick 14" was funny.  Ha.

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Hello there ...in the gulf . Euro hinting at some homebrew action . I actually been slammed with my electrical business.  The busiest in 15 years so  I haven't barely looked at modeling . But 1st time I've looked at anything past 5 days and bingo lol

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-mslp-4017600.png

I’ll be in Houston next Thursday through Monday. So perfect timing. 

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36 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Current radar is blossoming to the west and sw . Hopefully some cells  make it further east . Mby did get 2 small cells earlier.  About .20" total . 0z Hrrr doesn't fit the current radar fwiw 

Fizzling out now it appears :yikes:

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42 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Thursday was supposed  to be the best chance of rain but Looking at guidance the trend has been for the backdoor CF to press further south . The good rains stay mostly sw of south central Pa and extreme N.Md.  something to watch

The whole week has been a fizzle so far except for certain areas east of the Susq. River. and Shrewsbury which has receive 5" of rain since Saturday. 

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The whole week has been a fizzle so far except for certain areas east of the Susq. River. and Shrewsbury which has receive 5" of rain since Saturday. 

3 days ago was looking like a fun week of convection. 

Areas in southeast Pa, DE,Jersey looked to be the "driest" tomorrow and Friday but many of those areas have been dumped on past day or 2 . I'd like to get a flush hit TS imby before the week is out though 

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

3 days ago was looking like a fun week of convection. 

Areas in southeast Pa, DE,Jersey looked to be the driest tomorrow and Friday but many of those areas have been dumped on past day or 2 . I'd like to get a flush hit TS imby before the week is out though 

If we miss out this week a full on drought could be on.  

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57 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The whole week has been a fizzle so far except for certain areas east of the Susq. River. and Shrewsbury which has receive 5" of rain since Saturday. 

Yesterday at work in Harrisburg, it down poured for a solid 20-30 minutes. not even 1 mile away west as the crow flies, 37 drops of rain. 

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6 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Yesterday at work in Harrisburg, it down poured for a solid 20-30 minutes. not even 1 mile away west as the crow flies, 37 drops of rain. 

I mentioned it yesterday but really seems like Harrisburg and East/South score in these types of patterns.  Not everyone but out west there is very little scoring the last couple years.  Maybe that changes this week. 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

You still have 2-3 nights in the 40's next week.

I’d trade all 3 midweek days for a Saturday without question. I do like the 6z GFS “hurricane remnants mitigate the heat” solution in the longer term.

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Lots of flooding west of us with that solution.  

Unfortunately yes. And that solution is another hurricane that stalls out in the gulf for a few days before crashing into western Louisiana.

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Just now, TimB84 said:

Unfortunately yes. And that solution is another hurricane that stalls out in the gulf for a few days before crashing into western Louisiana.

That scenario is a big indicator of some kind of change that has happened to our patterns.  It keeps happening over and over, year after year.  

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14 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

On the subject of heat, MDT reaches 100 fairly regularly, right? Like a 5-10 year event?

Between June 25 and Aug 10, the daily high max at MDT has been 100 or over 30 of the 47 days so not at all uncommon.  Some of those were same year/multi-day events but I am sure there are other days where it has hit 100 more than once on that day in the past.   I bet someone has exact stats but would say its not at all a "rare" event. 

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15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Between June 25 and Aug 10, the daily high max at MDT has been 100 or over 30 of the 47 days so not at all uncommon.  Some of those were same year/multi-day events but I am sure there are other days where it has hit 100 more than once on that day in the past.   I bet someone has exact stats but would say its not at all a "rare" event. 

Paging @Jns2183 - JSN2183 to the batphone. 

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6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

The hot spot yesterday was central Chester County.  The area between Coatesville and Downingtown really took it on the chin, with a number of reports >5".  Saw some intervals where 1/2" fell in 5 minutes, that's about as heavy as it gets around these parts.

That general area seems to get a lot of excess rain/storms, it seems. Same with Elcott City, Maryland. 

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