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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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Few more warm days and then a cool down next week, not cold just comfortable lol

Saturday night and Sunday another strong mid level trough will swing
through Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, becoming vertically stacked and
occluding over southern lower Michigan by Sunday afternoon. This
trough will be stronger and farther east than the previous one, and
will bring a much higher chance of beneficial rain to our region
Saturday night through early Sunday. Though there is model
discrepancy regarding the timing of the the steadiest rain, the main
band of precip should be exiting the eastern Lake Ontario region by
Sunday morning. Cooling temperatures aloft and increasing PVA ahead
of the mid level closed low may produce some additional showers
Sunday afternoon with diurnal instability developing in the wake of
the earlier steady rain. Some isolated thunderstorms are not out of
the question Sunday afternoon and evening if there are any breaks in
the cloud cover. Highs will generally reach the 65-70F range, but
may be held down a few degrees if the cloud and shower coverage
persist through the day.

Shower chances linger through Monday as a mid level closed low moves
very slowly from the Great Lakes Sunday night and Monday to the
Northeast. Temperatures will be cooler to start off the week with
highs in the upper 50s and low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A closed upper level low will slowly spiral across the Eastern Great
Lakes region this period, with low chance to slight chance PoPs.
Timing rain shower enhancing shortwaves embedded in this feature is
tough at this point in time...and with model differences will side
close to continuity and NBM with the PoPs.

Temperatures at 850 hPa will slowly cool as this upper level low
passes through...starting the period +3 to +7C across the
region...and slowly cooling to a degree or two Celsius below zero.
This will trend daytime temperatures cooler each day...with highs
near the upper 50s to start the period down to the lower 50s by the
periods end.

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5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Dreary looking week, even a few mangled flakes mixed in lol

f9027cd7-c33d-46f4-99ac-a37695d2454d.gif

I’m still traumatized by the weather last April and first half of May when the thermometer was stuck between 33 and 43 degrees, the sun never shined, and it seemed to snow frequently (and stick!) during peak hearing hours. So even after this phenomenal stretch, when I see low 50’s and shower chances in the forecast , I think that’s pretty nice spring weather...

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Almost 80 here by the lake with a stiff SE wind fighting back that lake breeze. It mostly succeeded and temps stayed in the upper 70s with low 50s DP. Perfect. 

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

One of the warmest places in the states right now

image.png.712616363f58e97a4d594b4878838657.png

Warmer than Miami!? It's unreal how easily Upstate New York warms up. Seems like the Great Lakes states are really being affected by whatever is going on with this warming going on. Syracuse yet again broke a record high. I should keep track of all the record warmth that's occurred around here in the past two years.

 

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Dreary looking week, even a few mangled flakes mixed in lol

f9027cd7-c33d-46f4-99ac-a37695d2454d.gif

Trying to show those retrograding lows that we waited ALL winter to see. That'll stink if it happens now in Mid April.

 

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2 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Little squall line Sunday AM on the NAM..

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_46 (3).png

qpf_acc.us_ne (96).png

Can we get a Kuchera on that? ;)

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Better hope we don't get any deep freezes after this weekend. With the warm Spring we've had, 70s/80s this weekend, and rain on Sunday, the green-up is going to be on Turbo speed. Things are quickly budding in the Syracuse sizzler. 

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7 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

WNY could use a little rain..

Screenshot_20210409-013043.png

I’m planning my garden irrigation for this summer, and I’m scaling my tubing for the contingency of severe drought.

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15 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Warmer than Miami!? It's unreal how easily Upstate New York warms up. Seems like the Great Lakes states are really being affected by whatever is going on with this warming going on. Syracuse yet again broke a record high. I should keep track of all the record warmth that's occurred around here in the past two years.

 

Trying to show those retrograding lows that we waited ALL winter to see. That'll stink if it happens now in Mid April.

 

Buffalo is the Miami of the north, we always torch in S/SW winds ahead of lows with the downsloping. 

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An area of drier air and weak high pressure will build into the
eastern Great Lakes Saturday, bringing a return to dry weather and
mostly sunny skies. South to southeast flow and warm advection will
bring another day of record warmth once again with highs in the
lower 80s across lower elevations. Record high at BUF is 82F and
think we will have good chance of exceeding that. Record high
at ROC is 85F so that may be tough to achieve but highs there
should reach at least lower 80s. Record high at ART is 78F and
forecast is very near that. Warm H85 temps to +13c, plenty of
sunshine and deep mixing will help the cause for most areas.
South to southeast flow will prevent lake breezes in most areas,
with the one possible exception being the Lake Ontario shore
west of Rochester.
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1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

Looking for some days of 50 to 60 degrees with sunshine.....keep these 80s away until late June..or maybe never.... :P :) 

Keep em coming! Welcome to the new normal my friend. :sun:

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Keep em coming! Welcome to the new normal my friend. :sun:

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.

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52 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Looking for some days of 50 to 60 degrees with sunshine.....keep these 80s away until late June..or maybe never.... :P :) 

Bring the heat!  I want subnucleate boiling in my pool by June. ;)

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10 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Bring the heat!  I want subnucleate boiling in my pool by June. ;)

Sorry bud but I don't think we will be seeing any heat this year due to El Nino developing this summer from La Nina. Usually when it comes to netural El Nino, we tend to have cool/chilly summer so it might be the case for this summer in the great lakes. 

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Looks like we escaped most of the heat today, briefly made it to 71° before clouds started rolling in, currently 59° with showers..

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14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Definitely a cool down to around normal temps coming. We cannot keep this heat up. Average highs are low 50s with lows in 30s.

image.thumb.png.d5b15beb4d3d31e66ef459378e15cebf.png

image.thumb.png.907b80e1adcbe2a2d5f1ac901432e145.png

Even with that, it looks the biggest departures once again miss us. Seems like colder air has been funneling more south than east the past couple years.

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