Kmlwx

2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion

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Sky got really dark. Completely expect the loud rain to start any second now.

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Missed to the north yesterday. Missed to the south today. Radar says congrats south of DC today. Just a passing sprinkle and muggy. 

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That was boring. The thunder stopped before the storm even got here. Wind was meh. Now that it’s passed, thunder has started again. Storms are weird.

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15 hours ago, H2O said:

From before the storm hit

 

You got a great angle on the edge of that gust front. I tried to capture the speed of it on video with "meh" results -- doubling the playback speed shows motion better. It was definitely hauling ass, and I could hear the increasing roar of the wind to the west, about five minutes before it slammed Hayfield.

 

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Gusty garden variety storm here with some thunder. Wont last long. The good stuff is well south towards Cambridge.

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4 hours ago, vastateofmind said:

You finally identified a few posts back this specific owl species that's been stalking my backyard, @Stormfly....and then I finally caught one on camera last night just a few minutes after midnight! Video quality is meh (it's a Blink camera), but you can see it fly in at lower left, probably going after a frog or mouse on the patio. I was excited to capture this, as I've only ever seen them as swooping silhouettes in past years!

 

If you have enough lights to draw bugs it will draw toads.  We get plenty of fist sized toads around here.  Those can be annoying themselves (their "song" is a continuous cricket like sound).  The owls love 'em!

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Not bad...actually got a pretty good storm here, two actually...I managed to catch up to one as it passed over around Chesapeake Beach, turned around just in time to watch another near my place in Calvert, rare good luck in timing today...

 

 

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17 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Nothing significant - but it does look like the 0z ARW, ARW2 and NMM sweep a narrow line across some areas between 16z and 18z. 

This and a chance of small hail on Friday w/ 500mb temps falling to near -25C w/ moderately steep lapse rates is all we have for the time being.

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Mesoanalysis already has some pockets of 500 SBCAPE around. Not expecting anything too severe today. But a stronger cell or two if we can get some heating would be within reason. Mesoanalysis also shows a bit better shear parameters than yesterday. Satellite has some good clearing to the west - still pretty cloudy here in Colesville, MD. 

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1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Mesoanalysis already has some pockets of 500 SBCAPE around. Not expecting anything too severe today. But a stronger cell or two if we can get some heating would be within reason. Mesoanalysis also shows a bit better shear parameters than yesterday. Satellite has some good clearing to the west - still pretty cloudy here in Colesville, MD. 

77 here, with several peeks of sun within past 30 minutes, and clear blue skies visible in the west....let's see how we do.

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2 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

77 here, with several peeks of sun within past 30 minutes, and clear blue skies visible in the west....let's see how we do.

Lots of sunshine here now. Still think along and east of I-95 is the play here. And not anything too severe. After @George BM - mentioned Friday I took a look - does look promising for some small hail that day. 

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One thing that may kill chances - dews are already falling pretty close-in. Martinsburg, Winchester and Leesburg are all already into the upper 50s. GAI is still at 66 but the drop is probably starting there as well. It's possible that line going through Baltimore is the show today. 

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Dewpoint down to 55 at JYO. If anything else is going to pop it'll probably be with that line of activity coming through the higher terrain now. Dews are still 66 at ADW, DCA, CGS

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Question for the mets on here, how do you determine mean storm motion? I know you can get it on watch boxes, but how do you determine that beforehand? 

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Something wicked this way comes.  Not really, though -- that was about 10 minutes ago, and the dark clouds in advance proved to be more bark than bite, as we're just getting a breezy hard shower right now, with a couple peeks of sun already on the backside of it.

PXL_20210505_183021043a.jpg.4d020ca8add572f7c81465a132fd8270.jpg

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11 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Lots of sunshine here now. Still think along and east of I-95 is the play here. And not anything too severe. After @George BM - mentioned Friday I took a look - does look promising for some small hail that day. 

        Yeah, Friday is kinda interesting.    There isn't much CAPE at all in the forecast soundings, but a 500 mb temperature of -25C is certainly worthy of attention.......

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