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Feb 17-19th Potential Of Potential


Chicago Storm
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  
956 AM CST THU FEB 18 2021  
   
UPDATE  
  
955 AM CST...  
  
WE DID PUSH OUT A QUICK UPDATE A LITTLE WHILE AGO TO INCREASE POPS  
NOTABLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON HOURS, NAMELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS  
WHERE PERSISTENT NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS HELPING TO SQUEEZE  
OUT LAKE-ENHANCED SNOWFALL. CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN  
MAXIMIZED INTO DUPAGE, COOK, AND LAKE (IL) COUNTIES EVEN INTO  
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND HAVE ADDED A SLIVER OF ADDITIONAL 1-2"  
OF EXTREMELY FLUFFY SNOWFALL (SLRS NEAR 30+:1) IN THIS AREA. IT'S  
A BIT UNCLEAR HOW THINGS TREND INTO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUIDANCE  
OFFERING UP A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS HERE. THINKING WE SHOULD  
EVENTUALLY DISLODGE THIS LAKE ENHANCEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH  
THINGS PUSHING A BIT MORE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVEN INTO THE  
EVENING. ELSEWHERE, WE'VE GOT JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL ASCENT TO  
SQUEEZE OUT FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY  
SKIES, AND ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE TODAY.   
  
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.   

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2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Just south of Little Rock had 14-18” of snow yesterday/last night.

 

Officially, Little Rock has had 20.3” the past 4 days. However, areas just south of town are closer to 30” in the same 4 day span.

 

 

.

They are running like 750% of average snow to date :lol:

That 20.3" is easily the record for so much snow in such a short timeframe.  The old record snow in 4 days was 13.1"

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1 hour ago, blizzardof96 said:

Measured 2" here in North Toronto at 6PM. 

Im thinking it looks likely someone in South Oakville-South Mississauga and maybe Long Branch could get 6-8" by the time this ends tomorrow morning. 

South Oakville-South Mississauga getting hit pretty good right now 

 

finally got some consistent light snow where I live. Ill take 1-3" tonight as a nice refresher. 

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10 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Im thinking it looks likely someone in South Oakville-South Mississauga and maybe Long Branch could get 6-8" by the time this ends tomorrow morning. 

South Oakville-South Mississauga getting hit pretty good right now 

 

finally got some consistent light snow where I live. Ill take 1-3" tonight as a nice refresher. 

Looks like it wiggled around too much for anyone to get smoked. YYZ up to 3.2".  3.5" call looks like money.

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2 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said:

Nice wintry feel. I'm glad the forecast worked out well.

Was hoping this would be a northern redux of what happened to Burlington last week but instability was more marginal this time (delta-Ts 12-14?) and the transitory nature of the band didn't help either.

Oh well, as you say at least it's a nice wintry feel.  Sunday night we add a few more inches for peak winter and then we begin the slow ascent into spring!

 

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Just now, snowstormcanuck said:

Was hoping this would be a northern redux of what happened to Burlington last week but instability was more marginal this time (delta-Ts 12-14?) and the transitory nature of the band didn't help either.

Oh well, as you say at least it's a nice wintry feel.  Sunday night we add a few more inches for peak winter and then we begin the slow ascent into spring!

 

Good points. Delta-Ts and lake convergence were stronger with that event...leading to higher totals. The stationary nature of that band also helped.

I find that NE flow tends to lock in more often while E flow tends to be more of a windshield wiper.

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2 hours ago, blizzardof96 said:

Good points. Delta-Ts and lake convergence were stronger with that event...leading to higher totals. The stationary nature of that band also helped.

I find that NE flow tends to lock in more often while E flow tends to be more of a windshield wiper.

Agreed. Thinking of going from a condo to a house in the next couple of years, and Burlington area is on my radar because of this.  :lol:

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