BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 23 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: So if PM runs keep the LES setup... do we see watches posted in the morning? wOw!!! I think tomorrow afternoon if they go watches. If they go advisorys then Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 18 minutes ago, WNash said: I don’t have much confidence that the flow will back enough to sustain anything significant to the Buffalo metro outside of the typical southtowns hit, but I’m more confident that ice won’t be an issue for this event. The latent heat release from the phase change gets overlooked as a factor keeping the lake open. We’re not that far away from a freeze up, but it’s going to take a little longer than a week to do it. I’m confused as to why you don’t have any confidence in the winds being SW on Friday eve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I’m confused as to why you don’t have any confidence in the winds being SW on Friday eve? Still far too early to have any confidence in wind flow. As BuffaloWeather said we’re not even in the outer range of the high res mesoscale models. This could still set up from IAG and Lockport down to Springville or even Ellicottville at this point. I am not confident on where it will set up either. I’m much more confident wherever it does set up its gonna dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Still far too early to have any confidence in wind flow. As BuffaloWeather said we’re not even in the outer range of the high res mesoscale models. This could still set up from IAG and Lockport down to Springville or even Ellicottville at this point. I am not confident on where it will set up either. I’m much more confident wherever it does set up its gonna dump. Pretty much this. Whereever it hits the hardest I'll be there chasing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 NAM showing nice band at hour 75, still way out there though. Need to get within 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 KBGM LR Disco: (after the mix/rain event late this week): There still remains some uncertainty with the weather late Sunday into Monday. Model guidance is now trending the development of a coastal low further offshore. If this pattern continues, it will likely draw the Arctic air mass over the Great Lakes further to the e/se and place a good portion of central NY and ne PA in very cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 22 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: NAM showing nice band at hour 75, still way out there though. Need to get within 48 hours. Yeah I guess my confusion lies in that almost every model shows this...not sure the confusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 GEM says SW flow ho! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Icon still with the big storm idea.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Icon still with the big storm idea.. That would be perfect path for some big LES behind it. If you look over North Dakota that is where the next wave comes from for next LES event. The elongated trough axis with several waves moving along it early next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 27 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yeah I guess my confusion lies in that almost every model shows this...not sure the confusion There are still some question marks. Dry air is the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 RGEM looks fantastic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Icon has a big storm for weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: RGEM looks fantastic Like your idea of a potential watch by tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Gfs insistent on keeping them separate.. Starts up the LES machine quicker but lighter synoptic snows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 GFS looks good for LES for both events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 Tuesday has the strongest band 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 GFS is nuts! Saturday LES... Sunday synoptic... then Mon through Thursday band shifting north and south every 12-18 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 9 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: GFS is nuts! Saturday LES... Sunday synoptic... then Mon through Thursday band shifting north and south every 12-18 hours. 4 feet off erie 7 off ontario we take 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 First event looks great on canadian https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 I'll create a separate thread for LES once the watches go up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Seems like a very hyper period of synoptic and lake snow. Cmc is nuts on latest run tonight. Dumps entire pv into great lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Seems like a very hyper period of synoptic and lake snow. Cmc is nuts on latest run tonight. Dumps entire pv into great lakes. These are KBUF’s greatest events...multiple day lake effect opportunities that spread the wealth. This COULD be epic...now we wait. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: These are KBUF’s greatest events...multiple day lake effect opportunities that spread the wealth. This COULD be epic...now we wait. GEM keeps LES going into next weekend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 Unless I'm looking at it wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Unless I'm looking at it wrong? I mean I would give up alcohol until June 21st just to see that model run come true... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 It seems to break up the band mid week for a day or two and reorganizes it later in week. By that time ice is definitely an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I mean I would give up alcohol until June 21st just to see that model run come true... Your alcohol may freeze if that come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It seems to break up the band mid week for a day or two and reorganizes it later in week. By that time ice is definitely an issue. GFS showing a longer duration round 2. GEM showing shorter round 2, then a synoptic/coastal, then a round 3 of lake effect. Anyway you cut it gonna be a fun 7 days around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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