Ralph Wiggum

January 31-February 2, 2021 Major Winter Storm Observations

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5 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said:

I think this is panning out exactly how models dictated, namely the GFS. Mixing was always going to come right up into Philadelphia, it was so weird that many people and the local news ignored that. Anyways, maybe 3" total one mile from PHL, some sort of sleet precip falling. Some of the crazier numbers of 8-16 were never going to happen here, was kind of weird NWS would say that. Probably still a 4-8 or 5-10 situation which is still significant.

Still have the coastal to finish getting organized and do its thing.  The fact that the winds have picked up means some kind of gradient is going now as the transfer is underway.

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Just now, Kevin Reilly said:

I was asleep what did the 6z gfs show and the 6z Nam I saw Euro come in and went way north for us souls in SE Pa. 

Gfs and NAM still both a solid 12-18 for the area.

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Just now, Kevin Reilly said:

I was asleep what did the 6z gfs show and the 6z Nam I saw Euro come in and went way north for us souls in SE Pa. 

image.thumb.jpeg.c876680fdc9695d10a117f23c3e80dbc.jpeg
 

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No way anyone in the PHL area is getting a foot unless this sleet changes over soon.  Been nothing but sleet for 12 hours here just outside of NE Philly.  We might get a 6” of sleet lol.

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6 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said:

I think this is panning out exactly how models dictated, namely the GFS. Mixing was always going to come right up into Philadelphia, it was so weird that many people and the local news ignored that. Anyways, maybe 3" total one mile from PHL, some sort of sleet precip falling. Some of the crazier numbers of 8-16 were never going to happen here, was kind of weird NWS would say that. Probably still a 4-8 or 5-10 situation which is still significant.

I'm in SJ - Haddonfield area - and we had 3" of snow last night when we shoveled before bed. I was supposed to wake up to a lot more snow, but it looks like only a 1/2" of sleet. As long as we get snow for half of the remainder of the storm we should be much closer to 8" than 4", imho.

For the record, I am not an amateur meteorologist like most on this site, I just like reading what everyone thinks about the models and I love how excited everyone gets for a proper storm.

Temp is 33 but the wind is making it feel murderously cold.

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Just now, TheBigBlueBox said:

No way anyone in the PHL area is getting a foot unless this sleet changes over soon.  Been nothing but sleet for 12 hours here just outside of NE Philly.  We might get a 6” of sleet lol.

Miller Bs are "2-part storms".  This is finishing up "part 1".  Part 2 will happen later today and supposedly overnight and into tomorrow morning.

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1 minute ago, TheBigBlueBox said:

No way anyone in the PHL area is getting a foot unless this sleet changes over soon.  Been nothing but sleet for 12 hours here just outside of NE Philly.  We might get a 6” of sleet lol.

You do know the storm doesn’t end until tomorrow, right?

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2 minutes ago, PhillyGeekGirl said:

I'm in SJ - Haddonfield area - and we had 3" of snow last night when we shoveled before bed. I was supposed to wake up to a lot more snow, but it looks like only a 1/2" of sleet. As long as we get snow for half of the remainder of the storm we should be much closer to 8" than 4", imho.

For the record, I am not an amateur meteorologist like most on this site, I just like reading what everyone thinks about the models and I love how excited everyone gets for a proper storm.

Temp is 33 but the wind is making it feel murderously cold.

South Jersey into the Philly metro area was always in the "mix" (sleet/freezing rain/snow) zone during the transition between the two different storms (the one coming from the west and the one forming out in the Atlantic).  So this was pretty much predicted.  The bigger issue will be how and where the coastal Atlantic storm sets up and the precipitation from that will supposedly go all day, all night, and into tomorrow.

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Just now, PhillyGeekGirl said:

I'm in SJ - Haddonfield area - and we had 3" of snow last night when we shoveled before bed. I was supposed to wake up to a lot more snow, but it looks like only a 1/2" of sleet. As long as we get snow for half of the remainder of the storm we should be much closer to 8" than 4", imho.

For the record, I am not an amateur meteorologist like most on this site, I just like reading what everyone thinks about the models and I love how excited everyone gets for a proper storm.

Temp is 33 but the wind is making it feel murderously cold.

I think that's fair. I didn't expect this to amount to anything for SNJ a few days ago but ended up guessing 5-10 for the upper part of SNJ and 4-8 for the lower, and I think that's going to end up panning out perfect.

Seems like this busted for the mid atlantic people, or busted in terms of what they were hoping for. Feel kind of bad for them folks.

I will say this. I hate kuchera maps. I've said that before. And I hate models like the RGEM and the ICON. A lot of these maps/models showed unbelievable numbers for a lot of people. I think that is on the person still though. If someone chooses to ignore good models because they do not like the outcome or cling to kucheras, it's on them. Either way this ends up being the most snow I've seen in years. I've never even had to shovel since I bought my house a few years ago lol.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, NJDevs29 said:

You do know the storm doesn’t end until tomorrow, right?

Yup.  It’s just that I’m concerned we stay sleet or mix when the heaviest precipitation comes in a few hours.  I know it will eventually change over but it needs to line up with the heaviest precipitation to get the big totals.

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wouldn't be a Miller B without a bunch of posts during the handoff to coastal stating this isn't going to work out because it is sleeting or a lull. 27F 

So true. The anxiety is always real during this part haha

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Just now, TheBigBlueBox said:

Yup.  It’s just that I’m concerned we stay sleet or mix when the heaviest precipitation comes in a few hours.  I know it will eventually change over but it needs to line up with the heaviest precipitation to get the big totals.

Are you not reading the reports of the flip happening almost instantly in spots near you when the heavier batches are overhead? The warm nose is shallow and is being easily countered. It will happen quickly.

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Just now, TheBigBlueBox said:

Yup.  It’s just that I’m concerned we stay sleet or mix when the heaviest precipitation comes in a few hours.  I know it will eventually change over but it needs to line up with the heaviest precipitation to get the big totals.

Can’t see how Philly area doesn’t pick up at least 8” or more 

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Are you not reading the reports of the flip happening almost instantly in spots near you when the heavier batches are overhead? The warm nose is shallow and is being easily countered. It will happen quickly.

I had heavy sleet for an hour.  Didn’t change over. We’ll see.

Anyway the 12z HRRR is a riot.  The slp actually moves SW from hour 27 to hour 35 from off the LI coast to just off ACY and it just sits and spins lol.  It would be great if correct.

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Ralph u okay with were the low is at on guidance currently? If so am I correct in saying it should be pulled backed west from where it is currently? And then tuck and stall right off of lewes?

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1 minute ago, jhotdog said:

Ralph u okay with were the low is at on guidance currently? If so am I correct in saying it should be pulled backed west from where it is currently? And then tuck and stall right off of lewes?

Pinpoint nailed it

 

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