Heisy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Euro has a secs day 9-10 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Euro has a secs day 9-10 lol Think Ralph mentioned this yesterday? Either way, one at a time...feeling pretty good about this current one though. *Just took out the trash...15F, damn cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Euro has a secs day 9-10 lol MECS, 3 days later a grinch torch, 3 days later a SECS. February looks like an interesting month, exhausted just thinking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpjones595 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Latest NWS map. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Euro pretty much as expected, little bit better actually. One could argue too quick a jump NW, especially on the EPS. Could almost be viewed as a red flag but don't want to cancel anyone's parade just yet. Thus why I was happy to see the UKIE SE still. I will say we are in a great spot right now in the NW burbs. I95 and 10 miles N and W are going to mix for a period. Hopefully it isnt a PD2 type mix where a large chunk was wasted on sleet and dryslotting as the fgen via h7 banding sets up a subsidence zone to the sw of the ll moisture train. Someone is going to get robbed a bit by that feature which is normal in these capturing and occluding systems while someone just W of there usually jackpots. Robbing Peter to pay Paul so to speak. Regardless, good spot to be in say a line from Coatesville to Pottstown to Quakertown. Thats your jackpot zone. Let's stop the big NW jumps we saw at 0z tho. At least halt...no more big jumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6z RGEM is even better for SE PA than 0Z, if that is even freaking possible. 2-3' .... im going back to sleep for a few hours now lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: If I end up with 6 inches I’m boycotting this model for a year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just saw the 6z NAM. Warm punch, failure to capture early enough. Looks like a Binghamton NY-Boston type storm. We definitely don't want that. Hoping it is an extreme outlier but have tbh....it wouldn't be the first time the NAM sniffed out something to rain on the parade with a big storm coming. Didnt like that it has trended for 3 straight runs now too without slowing down. Still a good storm here but less than 10" while everything else under the sun is 12"+. I want to toss it but in the back of my head are the handful of times prior to big events where the NAM stood alone, we shrugged it off, and it ended up having the right idea. Of course we can't just have 100% consensus for once lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBigBlueBox Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 For PHL: NAM: 5” RGEM: 34” Insane. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveM Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The NAM has to be watched and taken seriously. It many times has been correct when it has gone against other models. I never say anything on here. The thought if getting NAM'd brought me out. Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 16 minutes ago, NJHurricane said: If I end up with 6 inches I’m boycotting this model for a year. Wonder if there’s sleet in that I’m sure there is along i95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 33 minutes ago, NJHurricane said: If I end up with 6 inches I’m boycotting this model for a year. Ridiculous ...toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Animal said: Ridiculous ...toss it Definitely a condo crusher snow event.. gfs makes sense too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 22 minutes ago, TheBigBlueBox said: For PHL: NAM: 5” RGEM: 34” Insane. Both are extreme solutions on either side. Truth is likely in the middle between the GFS and Euro which is usually the best way to go here. That is still 10-18" and an awesome event. Im sure there will be lollies of 24" or higher but the CMC family is the extreme outlier and likely overdone. Current thinking 7-14" for my area conservatively...mixing, late capture, or dryslotting allows for the lower end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1st call wilmington, Delaware (city) 12 inches my house - 14.4 oxford, pa - 13.2 paul - 15.8 new hope. Pa 13.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 37 minutes ago, TheBigBlueBox said: For PHL: NAM: 5” RGEM: 34” Insane. Rgem is actually a great model.. put away the women and kiddies!! The banding and snow put ratios are nearly identical to the most recent gfs out put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Just saw the 6z NAM. Warm punch, failure to capture early enough. Looks like a Binghamton NY-Boston type storm. We definitely don't want that. Hoping it is an extreme outlier but have tbh....it wouldn't be the first time the NAM sniffed out something to rain on the parade with a big storm coming. Didnt like that it has trended for 3 straight runs now too without slowing down. Still a good storm here but less than 10" while everything else under the sun is 12"+. I want to toss it but in the back of my head are the handful of times prior to big events where the NAM stood alone, we shrugged it off, and it ended up having the right idea. Of course we can't just have 100% consensus for once lol. We know the nw tick is coming..buckle up coal country pennsyltucky etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 If that ccb band pushes nw it’ll also push the mix line south of it at the height. Philly 6-12 is fair atm, burbs 10-20, we need to survive one more day of runs, if we’re good by 00z tonight let’s roll. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 19 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: If that ccb band pushes nw it’ll also push the mix line south of it at the height. Philly 6-12 is fair atm, burbs 10-20, we need to survive one more day of runs, if we’re good by 00z tonight let’s roll. Oh no I think we know sooner than that this clearly shifted NE this early morning we pretty much no what we are dealing with at 12z hard to tell if the trends will hold but there’s definitely bouncing around. The finer details get ironed out tonight at 0z but it looks like 10”+ I-95 N and W and N and NE this could move another 35-45 miles either way I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6z Euro holds serve for those wondering. 12-16" widespread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 MECS, 3 days later a grinch torch, 3 days later a SECS. February looks like an interesting month, exhausted just thinking about it. Just want to first be able to use a shovel. We can scale up from there......Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, Newman said: 6z Euro holds serve for those wondering. 12-16" widespread 30+ hours of snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Newman said: 6z Euro holds serve for those wondering. 12-16" widespread It pushes the ccb north though, still at a range where could see it keep ticking N 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said: Euro has a secs day 9-10 lol February looks wild 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: It pushes the ccb north though, still at a range where could see it keep ticking N The precip just expands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: The precip just expands Eh, if you push that strong of a ccb band that far north there will be subsidence on the south side. I’m not complaining about the run verbatim, it just gets scary if you factor normal nw trend ticks we usually see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: February looks wild Yeah def some opportunity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: Yeah def some opportunity Not common during a La Nina Thank God for blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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