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Nor'easter Snow Thursday the 28th-does it miss southeast or can it have significant impact in NJ/LI/CT?


wdrag
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Low pressure in the Virginia's late Wednesday will get picked up by an intensifying short wave moving east across the Mid Atlantic states Thursday and become a pretty good sized nor'easter as it departs the mid Atlantic coast Thursday afternoon. Does development occur fast enough to bring significant wind driven snow to a part of the NYC forum (rain or snow LI/NJ coast?)? 12z/23 GEFS is fairly robust on qpf,  but further south than it's 00z/23 version,  while 12z/23 EPS and GEPS are indicating too little too late. 

One small caveat: the low levels should remain fairly moist after the Tuesday - Tuesday night ( 26th) event (whatever it is)  and there may be some advance snow or snow grains/freezing drizzle/drizzle  late Wednesday or Wednesday night, in part related to leftover moisture and some sfc convergence. That too is an unknown. 

Added the WPC day shift forecast qpf and chance of 3+" of snow (darker green). Will update Monday the 25th,  when some of the nor'easter threat to our area has resolved itself. Also added the NAEFS qpf... seems a little high near and north of I80 but it could happen.  Also added the 12z/23 GEFS 500MB spaghetti for 12z/Thursday. 

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33 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

My prediction is it misses southeast but would watch closely on LI or the Jersey Coast 

Agree at hour 114 looks like we are in for at least a SECS then after that forgetaboutit..........

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

we're already in the blue by then, should be good for a couple of inches here 

yea but in many other instances a look like that at 114 turns into a SECS - but not this time............as of right now - need major changes in the atmospheric setup.......

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19 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

If only it went NE instead of East, even ENE wed probably get a few inches but due east will shunt the precip away. 

For those who are  south of I 78 in NJ maybe a few inches - but where you are less then that but of course we are just evaluating this particular run of a unreliable model..OP

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12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

18Z GFSv16 - you would think this would be at least a SECS here too close to write this off completely on this model run..especially when we are still almost 5 days out

prateptype_cat.conus.png

Yea I don’t think it’s being  written off completely but I think people would become interested if any model other than the gfs was even showing it this close.

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18 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea I don’t think it’s being  written off completely but I think people would become interested if any model other than the gfs was even showing it this close.

The GFS usually isn’t correct when it’s further north than the Euro, CMC, and UKMET 120 hrs out. The red flag is that the GFS usually has a suppression bias with our biggest coastal storms. So when it’s an amped outlier, it usually corrects to the other models as we get closer to the event.

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GFS has never been correct when it was further north than the Euro, CMC, and UKMET 120 hrs out. The red flag is that the GFS usually has a suppression bias with our biggest coastal storms. So when it’s an amped outlier, it usually corrects to the other models as we get closer to the event.

It is all about TPV.  You would think this will come north given the state of the blocking. 

 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GFS has never been correct when it was further north than the Euro, CMC, and UKMET 120 hrs out. The red flag is that the GFS usually has a suppression bias with our biggest coastal storms. So when it’s an amped outlier, it usually corrects to the other models as we get closer to the event.

But its amazing that when I view some prominent online METS I always see them using the GFS as their model of choice in their videos........

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3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

But its amazing that when I view some prominent online METS I always see them using the GFS as their model of choice in their videos........

yeah I don't get it-I know the Euro was typically a pay model so maybe that was part of it-but how many times have you seen people buy into the GFS OTS bias only to get burned?

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23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It is all about TPV.  You would think this will come north given the state of the blocking. 

 

There is a limit on how far north this one can come. The ridge is too far to the east in the Plains. We also have a strong -AO and 50/50 low with and TPV pressing south from Hudson Bay. The due east motion off the coast would also tend to limit the deeper moisture from getting up here. 

5FEB0C81-234D-4655-B95C-95899B21BDA3.thumb.png.170645645b925210e6c73ccd6192f1df.png

 

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13 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

0z gfs came a little south, absolute monster down to 969 in the Atlantic but nothing for this subforum

It’s getting the boot straight east if not ESE at some point. Blue wave listed the reasons.  Hopefully it can gain a little latitude to off the Delmarva before that happens.

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

There is a limit on how far north this one can come. The ridge is too far to the east in the Plains. We also have a strong -AO and 50/50 low with and TPV pressing south from Hudson Bay. The due east motion off the coast would also tend to limit the deeper moisture from getting up here. 

5FEB0C81-234D-4655-B95C-95899B21BDA3.thumb.png.170645645b925210e6c73ccd6192f1df.png

 

Also looks like a badly timed reinforcement on the 50-50 low to press the confluence down. Plenty of time for it to change but right now not ideal.

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The GFS usually isn’t correct when it’s further north than the Euro, CMC, and UKMET 120 hrs out. The red flag is that the GFS usually has a suppression bias with our biggest coastal storms. So when it’s an amped outlier, it usually corrects to the other models as we get closer to the event.

wasnt this also the case with the early Feb 2010 event? a notorious and perhaps the most infamous suppressed storm, this one is like a flurry compared to that behemoth

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

There is a limit on how far north this one can come. The ridge is too far to the east in the Plains. We also have a strong -AO and 50/50 low with and TPV pressing south from Hudson Bay. The due east motion off the coast would also tend to limit the deeper moisture from getting up here. 

5FEB0C81-234D-4655-B95C-95899B21BDA3.thumb.png.170645645b925210e6c73ccd6192f1df.png

 

wheres that semipermanent SE Ridge when we need it ;)

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Good Sunday morning everyone, Jan 24.  I dropped the rain out of this Thursday 28th topic.

Otherwise I leave with two WPC graphics from their overnight shift (chance of 3+" of snow --see legend-chance is in the 10-29% category for the southeast part of our NYC forum, and their QPF forecast). I see this as a grazer, at worst ,between LI-I80 and I195 (TTN east). There could be a period of snow or flurries up to I80/LI Thursday morning midday- but otherwise so far, guidance suggests mostly a miss to our southeast- development just a little too late. However, do monitor future guidance. There still is a chance of a track that is a little closer. 

 

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think the GFS will cave at 12Z.  The NAM looked okay at 84 but it was going to be a miss I think, more so than the GFS 

The PV is too far south on the Nam. It would crush the system as it heads north. 

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16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think the GFS will cave at 12Z.  The NAM looked okay at 84 but it was going to be a miss I think, more so than the GFS 

this is as close as it got at 6Z to refresh everyones memory

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

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