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Chicago Storm

Jan 24-26th Something Potential

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Keep in mind-  this is long range for the NAM

Exactly. It’s literally just getting into range of the system.


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The writing is not on the wall for the northern tier.


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Yep, if anyone has been following the under the hood analysis, the northern burbs are definitely not out of the game. Key thing to watch on the globals today is the track of the 700 mb low. Often times when mesoscale banding sets up, there can be one pretty well displaced to the northwest of the h7 low track.@weathafella can attest to this "mid-level magic" from east coast systems.

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12z RGEM based off this run the northern suburbs are out!!!!

It is possible that the northern suburbs might miss out but throwing in the towel based off of the 84hr NAM is crazy. I believe the system will be entering the west coast overnight and we still have 48  hours of model runs to get thru and you dont want to be in the bullseye now.

prateptype.conus.png

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43 minutes ago, mimillman said:

1/3 on the miss south claims.

Between the two of us I know we can get to 5

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I just received an e-mail from IWX stating that NWSChat will be down for planned maintenance on Monday from 10 AM - 1 PM EST. They couldn't have timed it more perfectly.

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Strength of the system is going to have more of an an impact of how far north it goes.  Weaker/south vs stronger/north

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GFS SLP stronger but lobe over central Canada further south. Also 500mb looks a little less sharp, I'd expect this to slide SE a bit

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Just now, mimillman said:

GFS SLP stronger but lobe over central Canada further south. Also 500mb looks a little less sharp, I'd expect this to slide SE a bit

 

Just now, SchaumburgStormer said:

GFS looks to be coming north. 

Classic. Assume I am wrong in these cases, lol

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Lesson to myself in analyzing 500mb maps when I'm not a trained meteorologist: don't.

It is a tick further northwest. QPF max more consolidated but higher amounts-- at least I got that one right.

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GFS SLP stronger but lobe over central Canada further south. Also 500mb looks a little less sharp, I'd expect this to slide SE a bit

Lobe was further SW. However confluence to the east across northern Great Lakes was north, along with more ridging ahead of ejecting wave.

 

 

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nice look on that 12Z GFS considering where it was 24 hours ago. And no, the north burbs are clearly not out of the game. Also, lends credence to the throw out of the NAM.

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lead wave looks to drop a solid 3" or 4" here.  trending towards a narrow miss south with the main system. 

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