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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Going to be a battle between that high and that low pressure next weekend.

 

That doesn't sound like much better of a pattern.

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2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

New map through Tuesday morning..

StormTotalSnow (8).png

Lake temps might be enough to bump that a few miles north. Looks good for a foot or so here. The most intense band should be on Tuesday.

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1 hour ago, swva said:

Ended up with around 11” in south Redfield.  Trying to keep up with Carol LOL

I want to see your picture lying in the snow.  On second thought maybe not. 

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42 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 8 to 16 inches in the most persistent lake snows. The
  greatest snow accumulations in Chautauqua and Cattaraugus
  counties will occur north of a line from Mayville to Cattaraugus
  to Machias.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie
  counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

Nice!  I’m headed to ECF in Sardinia for a sunrise hike tomorrow, might actually need the snowshoes. 

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20 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Nice!  I’m headed to ECF in Sardinia for a sunrise hike tomorrow, might actually need the snowshoes. 

My guess is this will bump north after midnight on Tuesday am...that when the north towns get in on the action 

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56 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Lake temps might be enough to bump that a few miles north. Looks good for a foot or so here. The most intense band should be on Tuesday.

KBUF AFD wants nothing to do with the lake effect over metro at all...not sure why?

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It's an absolute different world down here in the city of Syracuse I will tell you that much. When I left the house, it was 33 and lightly snowing and the closer I got to the city, the skis opened up and the sun's practically showing. It's 38 down here with just wet roads while roads near me are snow covered. That's a distance of approx 20 miles so.... Is it January cause I forgot???

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

KBUF AFD wants nothing to do with the lake effect over metro at all...not sure why?

Because no models show that right now, not saying it can’t happen but RGEM was only model getting it into the Northtowns and that had since backed off. I’m not impressed at all. 4-8” in southtowns. 1-2” in the city and Northtowns, maybe 8-12” in the best spots in the Boston Hills/Chaut Ridge. 

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1 minute ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Because no models show that right now, not saying it can’t happen but RGEM was only model getting it into the Northtowns and that had since backed off. I’m not impressed at all. 4-8” in southtowns. 1-2” in the city and Northtowns, maybe 8-12” in the best spots in the Boston Hills/Chaut Ridge. 

I guess I’m just surprised with a SW travel just north of the region the winds won’t go sw

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18z still cuts that next major storm...one has to think, if we have all these things in our favor now then what will it take to get a pattern that lasts for more than 5 days?

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Blyr flow in the lake effect mixed layer starts out this evening
from west-southwest and shifts more wnw late tonight into Monday
morning as sfc trough to the northwest at least temporarily sinks
through. Bigger change was more models, besides Canadian regional,
now indicate that after this brief shift to the south of more
focused low-level convergence and heavier lake effect snow, sfc low
crossing Great Lakes late Monday into Monday night results in winds
becoming more west-southwest again later Monday into Monday night.
Didn`t go as far north as Canadian would suggest more into at least
southern portions of Metro Buffalo, but do expect heavier snow to
return to especially southern Erie county later Monday. Throughout
this event through Monday night lake equilibrium levels only rise to
7-8kft. However, as the airmass is becoming colder, more of the lake
convective layer will reside within DGZ, so looking at higher
SLRs/fluffier snow. Since the fluff factor seems to be increasing
and there is certainly potential that stronger band or two of snow
could become stationary at times tonight through later Monday and
Monday night, would expect snow totals over a foot over much of the
warned area. Possible that edges of the warning area could need
advisories, but not as set on that, so just handled the warnings
for now and will let later shifts look into additional headlines.

Away from the lake effect off Lake Erie, between the trough dropping
through later tonight and widespread lighter snow and flurries
spreading across the region from the shortwave trough, have some
pops for all areas tonight even farther inland. Only area that sees
relative minimum of snow will be eastern Lake Ontario region
from early evening onward. Any light snow and temperatures
dropping to at or below freezing for all areas late tonight and
not moving much upward on Monday could result in slippery
conditions at times later tonight into Monday for untreated
roads.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure finishes crossing the lower Great Lakes on
Tuesday. Behind the low, even colder air will pour across the
Great Lakes with H85 temps dropping to -13c to -15c across the
entire region. Several disturbances in upper levels moving
across in this cold and relatively moist regime will result in
continuation of the active period of lake effect snow. Even
though the lake effect snow warning for southwest NYS only goes
through daybreak on Tuesday, could see need for further advisory
or potential warning headlines down the road. Also looks like
these fairly widespread snow showers will begin to impact areas
east of Lake Ontario again so may need some headlines there as
well. Daytime temperatures on Tuesday will only top out in the
upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Behind the passing system, 850H temps of around -15C to -18C will
continue to allow for the potential for a lake response east of both
lakes into the first half of Wednesday afternoon. Synoptic moisture
will start to decrease by the early afternoon as the trough over the
region tracks east, so any lake response looks weaker with light
snow. With any lake response that may linger into later Wednesday,
the main driving force would be an upstream connection to Georgian
Bay/Lake Huron. Snowfall should generally be light, with greatest
snow amounts near the south shore of Lake Ontario.

An area of low pressure will track from near James Bay southeast to
the NY/VT/QC border from Thursday morning through Friday morning. As
this system tracks southeast, an associated warm front will cross
the WNY and Northern Finger Lakes area, causing warming temperatures
aloft where 850H temps warm to around -7C for Thursday afternoon.
Some snow showers will accompany the passing warm front, with
additional snow showers more likely with the weak passing cold front
later on Thursday night.

Behind the passing cold front Thursday night, lake enhanced and then
lake effect snow is expected east and southeast of the lakes on and
off through Saturday as 850H temperatures drop from around -9C
Friday morning to around -15C by Saturday morning. Late Friday into
Friday night, a shortwave trough will cross the area, bringing
additional chances for snow showers across most of the region with
its passage, in addition to any areas of lake effect snow.

During this period temperatures will be around 5 to as much as 10
degrees below normal, except on Thursday and Friday where
temperatures will be near to slightly above normal.

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Looking at latest model runs, radar, and current conditions (rain/graupel/snow mix) lol... and weak intensity, I am wondering if we're even going to get an inch of snow in the Rochester to Syracuse zone this week. (At least tonight into Tuesday.) Never ending crap fest.

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It's made its way here

...AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CATTARAUGUS...
SOUTHERN ERIE AND NORTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES...

At 856 PM EST, an area of heavy lake effect snow was centered along
a line extending from near Lake Erie Beach to Holland. This band of
lake effect snow will remain nearly stationary for the next few
hours. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inch per hour will be possible at
times within this band of lake effect snow. The northern edge of
this band of snow will be located along a line from Athol Springs to
Wales Center, and the southern edge of the lake band will be along a
line from near Dunkirk to Springville.

WUNIDS_map?num=10&type=N0R&mapx=400&mapy

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14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

NAM keeps the heaviest stuff just south of Buffalo

image.thumb.png.bfa4fe8e085db6c80004d501c93e5afc.png

3 KM brings it close

image.thumb.png.5466f5c0b01c234afa745164da9728f4.png

Well at least someone in our area is getting in on the fun! 

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1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Pretty weak sauce band here but I think it backed farther north than guidance had it..At least temp is below freezing lol 31° light snow..

WUNIDS_map (43).gif

Snow in the band here is very wet, temps not cold enough yet.

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37 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

RGEM brings it pretty far north as well

image.thumb.png.d989006ccf92e9dea6f96dfef042dd2a.png

I think its funny they discounted that model. I wonder what makes them pass...

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7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I think its funny they discounted that model. I wonder what makes them pass...

Not sure but every model gives about a foot here by weds morning at 1:10 ratios. Canadian and RGEM are farther north

image.thumb.png.c25dbad5c4970081dd42493976f530e4.png

image.thumb.png.6974090db60721c59d2523ecbdc5233f.png

image.thumb.png.2a3559d5efbb9fc267ccd06d80ea05a7.png

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