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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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Key Difference between the month to date and what’s coming next week is the PNA. The positive PNA we’ve had was working to shift things south of us, but in combination with the NAO it was a shredfest. Hopefully with the upcoming -PNA, we get some offsetting factors to keep the storm track nearby. 

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Key Difference between the month to date and what’s coming next week is the PNA. The positive PNA we’ve had was working to shift things south of us, but in combination with the NAO it was a shredfest. Hopefully with the upcoming -PNA, we get some offsetting factors to keep the storm track nearby. 

True...that’s why we identified this as a good threat window. It still is. I really do think the gfs just had one of its many whacky runs. Just saying I’ll still feel better when we clear that threshold soon where we know it won’t be squashed and it’s just about nailing down details. Logical or not. The last couple years have been hard not to start looking over my shoulder for what’s going to go wrong next. 

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I said a couple days ago that tonight’s 0z runs were a key threshold for me. That puts us about 150hrs out. Still aways to go, but nothing else really got to that point this month and still looked like a legit chance.

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I hope the 0Z runs improve but EPS has not gone above 30% for next week since 0Z.  It does not strongly support its deterministic model.  There has been one good EURO and Canadian determinative runs and one good EPS control run.   No GFS or GEFS support.  We have seen several head fakes from the EURO this year...but hope springs eternal...

I guess we will know if the GFS or EURO/Canadian are wrong soon enough.  
 

 

 

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You know, it could end up correct, but I won’t lose a minute of time worrying about the gfs. Look at its last 4 runs at h5. It literally throws out every possible scenario. Hard to put faith in that.

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3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I hope the 0Z runs improve but EPS has not gone above 30% for next week since 0Z.  It does not strongly support its deterministic model.  There has been one good EURO and Canadian determinative runs and one good EPS control run.   No GFS or GEFS support.  We have seen several head fakes from the EURO this year...but hope springs eternal...

I guess we will know if the GFS or EURO/Canadian are wrong soon enough.  
 

 

 

Just stick with the the maps. The commentary doesn’t help either 

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You know, it could end up correct, but I won’t lose a minute of time worrying about the gfs. Look at its last 4 runs at h5. It literally throws out every possible scenario. Hard to put faith in that.

Agreed that the GFS is all over the place, but it has been pretty consistent showing freezing rain for Monday.  My point is that without strong EPS support the EURO should not be taken as a given.  I have fallen for it too many times the last few years.  Let’s see if the EURO and Canadian show the same result for a few runs in a row first.

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2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Agreed that the GFS is all over the place, but it has been pretty consistent showing freezing rain for Monday.  My point is that without strong EPS support the EURO should not be taken as a given.  I have fallen for it too many times the last few years.  Let’s see if the EURO and Canadian show the same result for a few runs in a row first.

This is not the Euro on an island. The Canadian has spit out nearly identical solutions four runs in a row, the ICON is way more in line with the euro. The NAVGEM. The JMA. It’s the gfs that is in an island. 
 

If the euro was riding solo, I would agree with you.

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Just now, Weather Will said:

Ok, just maps.  No comments.  Last 4 runs of Canadian:

C16D03E3-A298-488F-B626-92FB7A2FFE79.png

AD2669F9-9CF4-4C4E-B280-09B95BE87611.png

D6377335-C0E8-4A12-BEC1-4CCD27146817.png

000008B8-8756-487B-8D78-1766BDAFC94C.png

Right there is your problem. You only look at snow maps. Post the precip maps

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20 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'll take another piece of guidance in my corner even the JV models.  Navgem has no ns lakes low . Looks like a hit incoming 

 

navgem_mslp_pcpn_namer_24.png

It’s there just super weak and sheared out like other guidance. But your point is 100% wrt to practical impacts on our ground prospects for snow just saying technically that wave is on all guidance. It’s simply the details of how amplified it is at question here. 
0807FE7F-1B08-4260-A0A2-A13C083D4C60.jpeg.c35710289b689e819aa450fc53b24e3a.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Right there is your problem. You only look at snow maps. Post the precip maps

Can.  Last four maps total precipitation 

260C4500-3B47-4851-94EF-EE2AEB8A0723.png

2F5DF5E8-9397-4BB4-93D3-71B60FE48414.png

931948A5-E655-489A-9CB5-96A15F42DDC4.png

C2C05C03-F777-4670-8E11-7A6A8B297F61.png

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

It’s there just super weak and sheared out like other guidance. But your point is 100% wrt to practical impacts on our ground prospects for snow just saying technically that wave is on all guidance. It’s simply the details of how amplified it is at question here. 
0807FE7F-1B08-4260-A0A2-A13C083D4C60.jpeg.c35710289b689e819aa450fc53b24e3a.jpeg

Yep. Agree it's of no relevancy as far as ground truth outcome .I see the bent isobar in the above but  If you look st h5 anomaly its literally nothing on TT . Shredded beyond existence :D

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Last 5 Canadian runs. Some timing differences but within 6-12 hours. I triple dog dare you to post the last 5 gfs runs

D190B1E9-4721-45F4-89F0-B19251E89FC1.jpeg.3386ef0aa64ec306feee759b5673c32a.jpegB0EC804B-26EE-4126-BDE0-05A1054FF284.jpeg.180961356921cd861b98884e55fa5a96.jpeg882B0BF7-9EA5-4A6C-A199-4847F5446A90.jpeg.0797f764fd9ab9235127c8758de930c0.jpegBCC4830E-21A5-44B6-8B9F-D71B9CEBD3AF.jpeg.ab3383c447e5db459e3c6c4738881372.jpeg006CAA35-2298-4E52-8885-C2968D08EC49.jpeg.66a9c81c212cd7c25725ec31cef0a164.jpeg

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1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB GFS, what I said was that the GFS has been consistently showing freezing rain for Monday and all over the place for the next Tues. Wed. Wave.

5071E602-F3FE-46BF-A8DD-C029B0ABD160.png

9B57FC93-E65A-4291-9529-A8DBB4C36D42.png

E48F5704-3539-44EF-B5FD-EE668405854D.png

A98308EE-764A-44F6-A303-1FD25A5A595E.png

79877628-A1CA-459E-BEE7-CD5998887946.png

Now hang on. The storm that we are all talking about is the storm for Tuesday. Let’s keep the debate fair.

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3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

18z EPS at 132

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-1554400.thumb.png.9715d1dc7e7d9ac2edced68e149f19f5.png

Compared to 18z GEFS at 132 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-1554400.thumb.png.dcd30d13947a03f6f0d5a257cc1ef7e3.png

Spot the difference 

Hmmm. Let me see if I can find it :lol:

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-1597600.png

Eps stronger with the ssw energy at 144 . All looks decent to me 

Looks pretty healthy on the control

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-conus-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1597600.thumb.png.df00876c49da9c073f1b1990699fda61.png

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-1597600.png

Eps stronger with the ssw energy at 144 . All looks decent to me 

Not even a single member like the GFS or many of the GEFS members. That pretty stark, even at D6 range. 
 

It looks a lot like EPS has already for the last 2 days at least. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Now hang on. The storm that we are all talking about is the storm for Tuesday. Let’s keep the debate fair.

I thought how the models handle the first wave will effect the track/strength of the second wave. I am enjoying the discourse.  Thanks.

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Just now, Weather Will said:

I thought how the models handle the first wave will effect the track/strength of the second wave. I am enjoying the discourse.  Thanks.

It does. But we are talking about consistency of models and number of models that support the Tuesday storm. The gfs is alone is all that I’m saying.

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12 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

18z EPS at 132

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-1554400.thumb.png.9715d1dc7e7d9ac2edced68e149f19f5.png

Compared to 18z GEFS at 132 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-1554400.thumb.png.dcd30d13947a03f6f0d5a257cc1ef7e3.png

Spot the difference 

OMG when I first glanced at that before reading I thought the bottom image was the 144 EPS and was like CRAP then saw what you did. Don’t scare me like that. We need a freaking snowstorm so bad. 

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3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Well maybe the GFS will cave at 1030 so everyone won’t be panicking for the 130 EURO... good thing I’m off tomorrow.

Will you be able to post probability maps?

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Eps is slower and stronger as seen above.  Also consequently alot of members with juicy 6 hr precip panels at 144 . Hopefully this continues and confluence stays strong.  I actually thought this run was little more expansive with HP

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