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Texas Winter 2021


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18Z GEFS snowdepth mean for Thursday morning is over 6" basically north of a Lubbock to Austin to Shreveport line. Over 12" north of a Amarillo to Waco to Texarkana line. Maxing at 17" around Sulphur Springs and Paris. Keep in mind this is the mean. Several members around 36" 10:1 in N and NE TX.

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Ratios will be worse, but QPF better per GFS on mid-week system.  Temps at the saturated level by Wednesday evening may not support efficient dendrite formation, could cause 'snizzle.  5 days out, but potentially even more interesting than Sunday, even if Sunday has better ratios just because of temps.

 

I wonder how many buildings in DFW built for a total 1.5 or higher liquid equivalent snow weight on their roofs.  I remember, after we moved to Texas, a supermarket roof collapsing back in Massapequa because of a couple of consecutive heavy snows.  8 lbs/square foot, a 1.5 inch liquid equivalent snowpack...

DFWThursMix.png

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1 minute ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Ratios will be worse, but QPF better per GFS on mid-week system.  Temps at the saturated level by Wednesday evening may not support efficient dendrite formation, could cause 'snizzle.  5 days out, but potentially even more interesting than Sunday, even if Sunday has better ratios just because of temps.

 

This is probably why Steve keeps calling the mid-week system more significant on his FB page today. He normally doesn't use any strong word for thing this far out...

https://www.facebook.com/wfaa.steve.mccauley

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31 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

I just got my email from Ambit regarding the need to cut back on electrical use.

Direct Energy said we should properly insult our pipes.  OT, verbatim GFS Wednesday starts with freezing rain in Houston before a quick change to rain, by the time heavy rain arrives it would near 40F, but 5 days out, maybe it turns out to be more than just a hundredth between changeover.  skew-Ts in Winter, didn't think I'd do that much.

GFS_3_2021021300_F108_30.0000N_95.5000W.png

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Euro relatively dry with DFW, ratios would still support ballpark 5 inches.  Big Cities, I-35 Waco to San Marcos look like the winners.   DFW may just be too far North for the big action.  12km NAM should be getting in range, looking at NYC subforum, NAM is having a good Winter up there and is even drier for DFW.  GFS and Euro have a decent discrepancy on the amount of QPF in Houston Sunday night/Monday morning, almost half an inch.  NAM splitting the difference.

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Does any PPV site have Euro ice/sleet/snow products?  I'm not sure how they differentiate between sleet and freezing rain anyway, but am curious as to whether Euro has significant ice SETX.  About a decade ago I spotted freezing drizzle over the snow HGX forecast, the NY subforum has red taggers who explained top down forecasting, I think down here the mets may have just looked at 540 thickness and 850 temps and said snow, but I wish a red tagger from a Northern forum could look at the soundings, because snow or freezing drizzle somehow seems simpler than sleet or freezing rain.

 

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Reviewing models for both storms I say worst case DFW sees 0.5" QPF, meaning say 0.1" QPF as mix being 0.25" accumulation and 0.4" as snow at 10:1 being 4" accumulation. Most likely it is closer to 1" QPF with all as snow and at 14:1 ratio meaning 10 to 14" of snow. And of course even higher is possible. So say a range of 4 to 24".

Tyler could see 1.5 to 2" QPF but could lose 1/3 to mix and ratios more like 12:1. So 1 to 2" of ice and sleet along with 12 to 18" or snow. Worst case being 1" QPF and half lost to sleet being 1 to 2" sleet and 5" snow. Best case 2.5" QPF with 90% snow at 14:1 being 0.5 to 1" sleet and 30 to 36" snow. So say a range of 6 to 36".

 

 

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12 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I don't know how it helps, but per Direct Energy's precautions, I told my pipes they are stupid.

Insuring they're properly insulted, not ensuring.  You also need to take out a policy that will protect you from liability in the event the pipes aren't sufficiently demoralized by insults that are too shallow.

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8 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

Reviewing models for both storms I say worst case DFW sees 0.5" QPF, meaning say 0.1" QPF as mix being 0.25" accumulation and 0.4" as snow at 10:1 being 4" accumulation. Most likely it is closer to 1" QPF with all as snow and at 14:1 ratio meaning 10 to 14" of snow. And of course even higher is possible. So say a range of 4 to 24".

Tyler could see 1.5 to 2" QPF but could lose 1/3 to mix and ratios more like 12:1. So 1 to 2" of ice and sleet along with 12 to 18" or snow. Worst case being 1" QPF and half lost to sleet being 1 to 2" sleet and 5" snow. Best case 2.5" QPF with 90% snow at 14:1 being 0.5 to 1" sleet and 30 to 36" snow. So say a range of 6 to 36".

 

 

What about Killeen, do you think?

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The sun was definitely unexpected but has nothing to do with what is about to happen. FWD NWS is actually increasing snow totals. See afternoon AFD. Calling for 4-8 inches now. They also said the storm mid week may actually be more significant. Still expect the coldest air in over 30 years on Monday. If we fail to reach 13°F for a daily high, then it will be an all time record.

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