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IrishRob17

Interior NW & NE Burbs 2021

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10 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

February has been very kind to the north shore of Suffolk (excluding yesterday, but I'm not complaining).  My total for the month of February is 33.0" , season is 41.9". 

It looked like a little white rain tried to mix in here with today's showers, but you had to look really hard.  Temperature did manage to drop from 47 late morning to 38 during the rain.

ISP (10 miles to my SE) has  24.9" of snow for February and 33.5" for the year.  The north shore / south shore disparity in western Suffolk County has been greater than in recent years this winter.

The benchmark year for that sort of disparity remains 1993 - 1994.  I don't have pesonal stats for that winter, but the north shore was close to 60", Upton/OKX recorded 55" and and ISP only had 33" for the season.  I was living on the south shore and commuting to the north shore and it was very noticeable on a daily basis.

Smithtown:

http://www.northshorewx.com/ClimateData/SmithtownDailySnowfall.pdf

ISP:

http://www.northshorewx.com/ClimateData/IslipDailySnowfall.pdf

This is where being on the south shore of Nassau county is a lot better than being further east on the south shore.  We had close to 50" in SW Nassau in 1993-94.

One more moderate snow will get us to 40" this season.

We've had 4x 6"+ snowstorms here this season.

One question I have for you and others, with how close to the coast these storms have tracked, one would've expected more rain and less snow than what we got.  in Dec 1992 a storm took a similar track to the ones we had this season but that one was like 90% rain.  I wonder if that kind of storm had happened this season we would have had feet of snow instead of what happened back then.

 

 

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18 hours ago, North and West said:

Of all things to argue with other people about... something neither of us have any control over.

 

497fe02c93954b213dbdb3ffb4bd66d5.gif

 

 

 

.

has an outward "superiority" complex to compensate for his inward inferiority complex

 

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Good Wednesday morning everyone, Feb 24: The 00z-06z/24 impressions regarding on-going threads but think focus has to be primarily the I84 corridor. No graphics. 
 
No large scale 6+" snowstorms foreseen through March 2nd, and possibly through March 11.
 
Saturday morning (27th). A period light snow will occur across the I-84 corridor west of Hartford (including se NYS) early Saturday. Possible minor short duration impact at worst, reserved primarily higher terrain where an inch or 2 is possible before a change to rain after 10AM Saturday and then melting all surfaces. 
 
Late Sunday the 28th-Monday March 1: I84 corridor. Still uncertain. A complex potential significant rain to snow event. Any wintry weather Sunday evening the 28th is reserved for the Poconos. It could spread across the rest of I84 corridor by Monday morning March 1 with significant hazardous high terrain accumulations of several inches I84 itself northward, with the valleys below 700 feet elevation much less impact (Hartford, Poughkeepsie, Scranton). A shot of notably cold air follows Monday night. 
 
 
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27° with a 14 inch snow pack and a bit of a warmup on the way.

So far I have not had a day in February with less than 12.5 inches of snow otg. Maximum depth was 26.5 inches the evening of February 2nd. Will be interesting to see if we can make it through Sunday with at least a foot on the ground for the entire month, with no significant snow forecast through Sunday it will be close.

The liquid equivalent of the snowpack right now is at least 3 inches probably close to four. That will make this 14 inches of snow on the ground right now like melting 3 to 4 feet of snow, it will be tough to do even for a late February sun with temperatures in the low 40s. My guess looking at the forecasts is I'll probably be down to 10 inches on the ground by the end of the day Sunday
 
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6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This is where being on the south shore of Nassau county is a lot better than being further east on the south shore.  We had close to 50" in SW Nassau in 1993-94.

One more moderate snow will get us to 40" this season.

We've had 4x 6"+ snowstorms here this season.

One question I have for you and others, with how close to the coast these storms have tracked, one would've expected more rain and less snow than what we got.  in Dec 1992 a storm took a similar track to the ones we had this season but that one was like 90% rain.  I wonder if that kind of storm had happened this season we would have had feet of snow instead of what happened back then.

 

 

Don’t you people have your own thread?  Asking for a friend.

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1 hour ago, Hitman said:

Don’t you people have your own thread?  Asking for a friend.

Good morning, Hitman and friend. I’m not sure if we Islanders have our own thread. If not it can always be named (with apologies  to Dorothy and the wizard ) ‘Snow, sleet and freezing rain, oh my’. As always.....

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Wasn't there a bit of drama surrounding a LI thread several years ago?

Probably rjays fault

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What i thought was a really durable snowpack isn't. This 50° sunny day is killing it. There's water running down the streets like it's a summer thunderstorm. I havent measured but I bet I've lost 8-9" in two days.

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8 hours ago, rclab said:

Good morning, Hitman and friend. I’m not sure if we Islanders have our own thread. If not it can always be named (with apologies  to Dorothy and the wizard ) ‘Snow, sleet and freezing rain, oh my’. As always.....

 

 

I’m aware that you can make a technical argument that you’re part of Long Island, but really your worlds away in urban Brooklyn.

I just drove up to vt to keep my mid winter vibe going.

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4 hours ago, Hitman said:

I’m aware that you can make a technical argument that you’re part of Long Island, but really your worlds away in urban Brooklyn.

I just drove up to vt to keep my mid winter vibe going.

If the gorgeous New England scenery doesn’t do it, nothing will. I actually edited the initial post .I substituted we for rhe and our for their. Brooklyn and Queens are certainly part of that “ technical” geographic entity. Besides, the seemingly never to be denied progression of the rain/snow line keeps us together as one big happy family. As always ....

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19 hours ago, wdrag said:
Good Wednesday morning everyone, Feb 24: The 00z-06z/24 impressions regarding on-going threads but think focus has to be primarily the I84 corridor. No graphics. 
 
No large scale 6+" snowstorms foreseen through March 2nd, and possibly through March 11.
 
Saturday morning (27th). A period light snow will occur across the I-84 corridor west of Hartford (including se NYS) early Saturday. Possible minor short duration impact at worst, reserved primarily higher terrain where an inch or 2 is possible before a change to rain after 10AM Saturday and then melting all surfaces. 
 
Late Sunday the 28th-Monday March 1: I84 corridor. Still uncertain. A complex potential significant rain to snow event. Any wintry weather Sunday evening the 28th is reserved for the Poconos. It could spread across the rest of I84 corridor by Monday morning March 1 with significant hazardous high terrain accumulations of several inches I84 itself northward, with the valleys below 700 feet elevation much less impact (Hartford, Poughkeepsie, Scranton). A shot of notably cold air follows Monday night. 
 
 

ugh what time in the Poconos will this event on Sunday start?  I guess I will have to get an early start- no chance it'll happen during daylight hours?

 

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Good Thursday morning everyone, Feb 25: Am running 45 minutes late.  Focus is the I84 corridor 
 
As a friend said yesterday, winter's back is broken. No large scale hazardous wintry events foreseen through March 2nd. However...3AM - 10AM Saturday (27th), a 1-4 hour period of wet snow will probably occur across the I-84 corridor west of Hartford early Saturday. Possible minor short duration impact at worst, reserved primarily higher terrain where an inch or 2 is possible before a change to rain around or after 10AM Saturday and then melting all surfaces. Most may not notice the snow if sleeping.  No obs thread, unless modeling shifts a little closer to NYC (within 10 miles).
 
Late Sunday the 28th-Monday March 1: I84 corridor. Uncertain but probably not a significant problem. A complex rain (spotty ice) possibly change to snow event. Any wintry weather Sunday evening the 28th is reserved for the Poconos. It could spread across the rest of I84 corridor by Monday morning March 1, but for now models say proceed with normal life.  As you know, GFS modeling is drifting away from its excessive cold outbreak Monday night and leaves the door open for a little more than meets the eye (so far). I might be completely wrong for this period, regarding a wintry event occurrence but the door for me, is not yet closed. 
 
March 3-6: Uncertain modeling is gravitating toward an event that may include several inches of hazardous snow for the I84 corridor northward.  Timing etc? No thread. EPS like's it.  GEFS seems to be drifting in that direction. NAEFS noddy yet responding.  652A/25
 
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5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

ugh what time in the Poconos will this event on Sunday start?  I guess I will have to get an early start- no chance it'll happen during daylight hours?

 

I think this starts aroud 3AM in the Poconos and changes to rain there by 9AM.  Should be less than a 6 hour event. EPS/GEFS say an inch.  Depends on qpf intensity but it does look a little interesting there for a decent burst 5-7A. 

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32 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I think this starts aroud 3AM in the Poconos and changes to rain there by 9AM.  Should be less than a 6 hour event. EPS/GEFS say an inch.  Depends on qpf intensity but it does look a little interesting there for a decent burst 5-7A. 

Okay so Sunday morning.  Thanks Walt I shall adjust my schedule accordingly and leave in the afternoon instead.

For reference this is the southern Poconos south of I-80 but I have to drive on I-80 near Mt Pocono.

 

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37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Okay so Sunday morning.  Thanks Walt I shall adjust my schedule accordingly and leave in the afternoon instead.

For reference this is the southern Poconos south of I-80 but I have to drive on I-80 near Mt Pocono.

 

Ah, my mistake:  Sunday morning you're probably good.  I misunderstood. my error. Saturday morning early is snow there.  Sunday...  you're probably good but I know others that have plans that way, and I'm not entirely convinced of no ice there on Sunday, but for roads,  not a factor. If it indeed does ice a bit on Sunday the 28th. Sorry bout that misunderstanding on my part.  I am certain it will at least rain on Sunday, so normal cautions on wet roads. 

 

Added at 808AM/25 - this 06z/25 EC op image for 2PM Sunday... take it fwiw... matches my interest in this entire two day period. This is a restart. We'll see what gives in future modeling. 

Screen Shot 2021-02-25 at 7.57.38 AM.png

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

^^ Hmmph. Does this snowpack that seemed so dense and durable make it to the end of the month?

I think here at least it does, although yesterday did take a toll. I went down from 14 otg yesterday morning to 10.5 otg this morning. This morning becomes my first day with less than a foot otg this month.

It was a good 24 day run but not fantastic, like I've never seen, historic, or any of the other hyperbole you may read in the other sub forums from some who act as if they see snow every five years or so. Who knows maybe on the Jersey shore that's their climate, one reason I don't live there.

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35 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I think here at least it does, although yesterday did take a toll. I went down from 14 otg yesterday morning to 10.5 otg this morning. This morning becomes my first day with less than a foot otg this month.

It was a good 24 day run but not fantastic, like I've never seen, historic, or any of the other hyperbole you may read in the other sub forums from some who act as if they see snow every five years or so. Who knows maybe on the Jersey shore that's their climate, one reason I don't live there.

I dont know how they could forget 2010-11.

Maybe we have some 5 yr old posters?

And another really good one that was fairly recent was 2014-15

 

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Still need roughly 10” IMBY in Sullivan to meet average which is crazy to think about with two 12+ storms with one of them being over 20”; I would tend to believe we see one more big snow and maybe a few more minor-moderate events before we’re truly finished for this winter.

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This stretch illustrates why I don't personally subscribe to the school of thought which holds that sleet and ZR are actually good since they "bulletproof" the pack. One mild day and the whole thing is ripe, regardless of how it originally fell.

With the sun and wind today, my snow may not make it until noon...

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27 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

This stretch illustrates why I don't personally subscribe to the school of thought which holds that sleet and ZR are actually good since they "bulletproof" the pack. One mild day and the whole thing is ripe, regardless of how it originally fell.

With the sun and wind today, my snow may not make it until noon...

My condolences. I didn't realize east of the Hudson the snowpcak was that low.What are your YTD and monthly totals Julian?

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Hey guys, I’m a long time lurker up in Orange County. It’s been a nice winter so far.. hopefully we can cash in on a couple more events around here. 

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Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

My condolences. I didn't realize east of the Hudson the snowpcak was that low.What are your YTD and monthly totals Julian?

I think my latitude has been more of a handicap than longitude this month, as I know @gravitylover is running ahead of me as well. It's not really a huge discrepancy though... I'm at 46.0" for the season and 29.0" for February. The drifting from the Feb 2nd storm still haunts the landscape as some patches of bare ground are opening up, while 8" or so remains in favored spots.

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