Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 57 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 8.8" for kbuf on the European, roc 2.9". At first it might even be 8 to 1 by the time it winds down it will be closer to 15 to 1...that could be 10”...I also noticed the PA watches were upgraded to warnings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 34 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: KBUF does not like the synoptic on this event Well, their high-end map seems to follow the SREFs...their expected it much less, but if the east trend continues, they will have to go for the high-end map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: Well, their high-end map seems to follow the SREFs...their expected it much less, but if the east trend continues, they will have to go for the high-end map. The thing that confuses me with KBUF is they always seem slow to react...every global shows 6 to as much as 9” of snow and they’re 3 to 5? Also from the dept of FWIW I was watching thd weather channel a few moments ago mainly for the blizzard in the plains and Carl Parker (respect him) showed the euro model and the wind field for the system, and by 11pm Friday night they are SW over the lake. They did begin westerly but did switch as the night went on...something to watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 They are slow to react to higher totals. But show 1 model with lower they run with it. They hate synoptic snow. Or lake affect outside of downtown Buffalo. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: The thing that confuses me with KBUF is they always seem slow to react...every global shows 6 to as much as 9” of snow and they’re 3 to 5? Also from the dept of FWIW I was watching thd weather channel a few moments ago mainly for the blizzard in the plains and Carl Parker (respect him) showed the euro model and the wind field for the system, and by 11pm Friday night they are SW over the lake. They did begin westerly but did switch as the night went on...something to watch? Nah, they are a public-facing gov branch and don't want to rattle the public until they are more sure. Certainly the models have been struggling. Hopefully in their AFD they will offer a more clear position. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Can't believe you guys are still chasing this dudSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Anyone have euro ensembles snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 It is a turd but only thing we have. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 16 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Can't believe you guys are still chasing this dud Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Desperation driving this car Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Looks like nam a good bit east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Posted this on both threads since it talks about Synoptic and lake effect.. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... There will be two distinct phases for accumulating snowfall. The first will primarily affect far SW NY Thursday night, which roughly includes higher elevations of Chautauqua County, Western Cattaraugus County, and Southwestern Erie County. This area will get clipped by the heavier synoptic snow, potentially up to 12", on the cold side of a developing surface low moving from PA into the North Country by Friday morning. With the above in mind, issued a Winter Storm Warning for SW NY, knowing that this will need to be converted to a LES Warning after the synoptic snow ends. This should also match our neighbors across the NYS line. The 2nd phase will be lake effect that will develop during Friday, starting out as a relatively weak band initially over far Western NY during the morning. This should intensify however as the band develops a full lake fetch as the coldest air aloft (easily seen by following forecast 500mb temps) moves toward the region from the WSW. Expect a full blown LES band over the Buffalo and possibly northtowns by Friday eve, before the band begins to move S a little again Friday night and settles over the more traditional areas just South of Buffalo and over the Southtowns, where it should slowly weaken through Saturday. There should only be 1-2" from the synoptic snow, then a long enough break before the LES band begins. Therefore, went just with a LES Warning for Northern Erie and (Western portions of) Genesee and Wyoming counties. Adding up both the synoptic snow and LES snow, some areas could see 1-2` of snow. Briefly covering the pattern responsible...a well-formed longwave trough now covers much of the Central US. This has spawned a surface low with associated blizzard conditions over the Upper MidWest. But this feature allows a strong jet on the south side of the trough to spin up a secondary low over the Midwest and into PA by Thursday evening, while abundant moisture streams north from the Gulf of Mexico. Cold air over the midwest should then move east, changing any ongoing rain over to snow, at least for WNY. Highest snow totals will be closest to the PA state line/over the Chautauqua Ridge where there may be a little lake enhancement by Friday morning. Far less is expected further inland. Meanwhile, areas from near KROC east to the Eastern Lake Ontario may still wake up to grass instead of a White Christmas. But this will change, at least for lake snow-prone areas as colder air aloft rushes into the region later Friday. As noted above, a full blow LES band will be underway by Friday evening, and a similar lake response is expected ~Friday night ENE of Lake Ontario. This is fairly far out the the forecast though, so left a Watch in place. By Saturday, the LES bands should be ongoing. One concern will be another Canadian-sourced shortwave trough that will race ESE during the day. This may force the lake bands to back a little, particularly east of Lake Ontario, before being snapped back to the ESE later in the day or Saturday eve. With uncertainty and details still a little fuzzy, the Watch seems reasonable for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Nam coming in a good deal east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Yep!! NAM is gonna be east! Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 28 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Can't believe you guys are still chasing this dud Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I literally have nothing else to do. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 29 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Can't believe you guys are still chasing this dud Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Yeah we are cooked but trend is your friend for western portions of the viewing area.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Good enhancement signal here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 NAM is showing why thermal profiles will be an issue for the models. I think heavy enough DBZ it’ll start to mix in snow at air temps of like 40 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Through hr 45 it's basically 1/2 foot from roc to buff.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3km nam is a mess. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Keep it going! All flakes on Christmas Day are great flakes! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Has lows scattered all over state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, tim123 said: 3km nam is a mess. Lol It’s East and colder too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 BUF is gonna have to update their AFD with this east trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 For here I will have to rely on the lake, what's new? Lol I just hope I don't get skunked there too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Lol they just issued it riding the old nam. Be interesting to see new gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Again not buying the .10 to .40 freezing rain on nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: Lol they just issued it riding the old nam. Be interesting to see new gfs. Yup, the 18z now has a 989 LP from BGM to Old Forge...more of a NNE track than due North. Then stalling for 6hrs or so over Northern NY. Then it retros a little and moves NNE. Much more of a westerly and even a WNW flow for LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3km has lows all over state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, vortmax said: Yup, the 18z now has a 989 LP from BGM to Old Forge...more of a NNE track than due North. Then stalling for 6hrs or so over Northern NY. Interesting. Perfect track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Through Christmas morning about noontime: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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