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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

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That's a possible outcome, but to give particulars 5 days out is ballsy. Better to say "there's a chance of a significant winter storm" and start adding precip types in the next few days and potential amounts starting 24-48 hours out. 

Right. Waaaay too specific. Plus, it looks like, at the moment, what we do get will be snow. The biggest concern is suppression, not rain. Whatever model he’s using is smoking something.

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Just now, anotherman said:


Right. Waaaay too specific. Plus, it looks like, at the moment, what we do get will be snow. The biggest concern is suppression, not rain. Whatever model he’s using is smoking something.

I fear suppression. I can't shake it. Last thing I'm worrying about right now is taint, and I'm the forum's self-designated taint worry king. It worries me even more knowing that PSUhoffman is worried about suppression and he's further south than me by a fair amount.

EJ thinks that the area between Rt. 30 and 66 is in line for a warning event snowfall. I'll take my WWA and like it. 

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I fear suppression. I can't shake it. Last thing I'm worrying about right now is taint, and I'm the forum's self-designated taint worry king. It worries me even more knowing that PSUhoffman is worried about suppression and he's further south than me by a fair amount.
EJ thinks that the area between Rt. 30 and 66 is in line for a warning event snowfall. I'll take my WWA and like it. 

PSUHoffman knows more than I will ever know about this stuff, but I still think it’s jumping the gun a bit. Who is EJ?

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12 minutes ago, anotherman said:


PSUHoffman knows more than I will ever know about this stuff, but I still think it’s jumping the gun a bit. Who is EJ?

It's getting such that the ridges and valleys come hourly in ma lr.  Quite the vacuum there.

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26 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Eskimo Joe (Matt)

Lol...This is the same guy that cancelled the blizzard of 2016 a few days before the event because of one off run of the Euro that took us from 2 feet down to 1 foot.

He knows his stuff, but he is all over the place and likes to panic early & often!

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15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It's getting such that the ridges and valleys come hourly in ma lr.  Quite the vacuum there.

Great to see you posting!

I hope all is well and hopefully we will see you offer your thoughts & comments for the rest of the Winter and beyond.

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34 minutes ago, anotherman said:


PSUHoffman knows more than I will ever know about this stuff, but I still think it’s jumping the gun a bit. Who is EJ?

I agree, it is way to early to worry about boundaries when the final track is far from set.

Remember, for the December storm, that Binghamton, NY a couple of days before the event looked to be getting fringed with under 10 inches of snow and they ended up with 3 feet!

Also, the day before the December storm, CTP had the 18 inch bullseye near Harrisburg & Carlisle with no mention of sleet. Harrisburg ended up with 11 inches. The CTP snow bullseye in reality ended up from I-80 on north where many places ended up with 2 feet!

I like where we are sitting at this range.

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16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol...This is the same guy that cancelled the blizzard of 2016 a few days before the event because of one off run of the Euro that took us from 2 feet down to 1 foot.

He knows his stuff, but he is all over the place and likes to panic early & often!

? He's not panicking. He's feeling great about where he sits right now. He offered a  very early, educated guess. (Which is too early to be honest)

The one that's concerned is Hoffman.

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16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

? He's not panicking. He's feeling great about where he sits right now. He offered a  very early, educated guess. (Which is too early to be honest)

The one that's concerned is Hoffman.

I was just mentioning my point in general terms about his posts, not just for this event.

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3 minutes ago, canderson said:

GFA to my untrained eye looks south and no bueno. 

If this is no bueno I'd like to see whatever it takes to be muy bueno.

gfs-deterministic-ne-total_snow_kuchera-2278000.thumb.png.edd150e03ce9647d25fbc995c1195423.png

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Just now, GrandmasterB said:

I liked the ridge out west better on the 00Z GFS compared to 18Z and 12Z GFS.  I think it was a step towards the Euro.

Yea agreed. 

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This is unbelievable if it plays out with this long duration.  It starts snowing at 7:00AM Sunday morning and doesn't end until 12:00PM on TUESDAY!  Folks...that's 53 hours.  I think the longest storm of my life was 36 hours in January 1996.  I've never seen anything last this long.  WOW.  Oh yeah, the 14" of snow is pretty nice too...lol.

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Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

This is unbelievable if it plays out with this long duration.  It starts snowing at 7:00AM Sunday morning and doesn't end until 12:00PM on TUESDAY!  Folks...that's 52 hours.  I think the longest storm of my life was 36 hours in January 1996.  I've never seen anything last this long.  WOW.  Oh yeah, the 14" of snow is pretty nice too...lol.

gonna be a long 4 days of tracking!

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GFS still mixed southern tier for a time but it's been creeping toward a less mixy solution since 12z today. It also tucks in the coastal low closer when it pretty much stalls, so overall it's looking pretty good. 

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The 0z EPS was a great run with just about every ensemble member low north of the 0z Euro Op.

Most of the EPS members are tucked near the coast, some are inland and some just off of the DelMarVa. The EPS mean precip & snow map also increased for much of CTP.

 

CC9871FA-AC49-47FB-90C0-F3E6AF54C6A8.png

F3214A6C-2905-405F-ABCE-98EC68DE4810.png

3A4EF866-39E0-488A-B64B-F319ECB7383F.png

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8 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

This is unbelievable if it plays out with this long duration.  It starts snowing at 7:00AM Sunday morning and doesn't end until 12:00PM on TUESDAY!  Folks...that's 53 hours.  I think the longest storm of my life was 36 hours in January 1996.  I've never seen anything last this long.  WOW.  Oh yeah, the 14" of snow is pretty nice too...lol.

Long duration is a win no matter how it stacks up (well as long as it stacks up enough to play in).  6z GFS says the same snow late morning sunday right into tuesday morning rush hour.  

AND......if thats not enough, it looks like more opps coming on the heels of next weeks event.  Takeaway is it looks and feels like normal winter....and normal is good.  

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6z GFS even though it has a different evolution that is further north than the Euro, still delivers a very good result for most of CTP.

 

 

 

Living a happy life is learning to compromise.

We'll all be happy w/ an EPS/GFS compromise. 

See....that was easy.:D

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Hey everyone, quick idea.   If things keep looking like snow, I think it would be fun to have a snow contest for the area.  Pick something like 5 sites and see who can guess the total snowfall for those places.   Start a spreadsheet and tally up the numbers.   Like this post if you want to participate or respond directly to my post.   If we get 10 players I’ll get it going.  

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