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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread

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1 hour ago, penndotguy said:

39F cloudy and a stiff breeze, Ugh well its the 15th is this day RedSky? are you throwing the towel in? Im thinking its not looking good for snow I guess there is still a long way to go but we keep trying to catch up to the pattern change and storm threats at 10 days and just not happening. Id still rather have cold and dry opposed to cold, warm, rain, cold.  

Yes but I am going to request a 7 day extension. I can't logically make a decision with the data currently at hand simply put. We have either a roaring dumpster fire winter or bookend 2006 type deal playing out. 

 

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The 12z models are all over the place for next week which is to be expected in this time frame. Ignoring the southern stream completely though, there should be few chances next week for some coating - 2" type deals from the N stream. Obviously the models aren't going to sniff something like that out at range, but all the models have several N stream shortwaves passing nearby on the 20th, 21st, and 23rd. Wouldn't take much adjustment on any of those for us to see maybe a WWA type deal that sneaks up. Like someone said above, things are just boring right now, trying to find something worth discussing :lol:

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And to be clear, I'm not looking for a HECS (but I'll gladly take one). Give me a 1"-3" or a 2"-4" type deal and I'm happy -- anything to whiten the ground and cover the grass.

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58 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

And to be clear, I'm not looking for a HECS (but I'll gladly take one). Give me a 1"-3" or a 2"-4" type deal and I'm happy -- anything to whiten the ground and cover the grass.

GFS ensembles show some hope for this on the 20th. 10/31 show a coating - 2" from SE PA and N so a decent signal. Something to watch at least for now. I decided that I'm not going to get negative until the pattern either flips or it's March 1st and we still are in the same rut. I just feel like something has got to break our way soon with the teleconnections in place. I just don't see us being blanked again like last year with the pattern in place. 

 

Edit: 12z Euro has a c-2" deal on the 21st too. I think next week we should have a decent shot of seeing some wintry weather. The models aren't going to have a good grasp on the N stream until Monday at the earliest so hopefully things trend our way.

 

 

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Never seen a winter that looked so bad on paper, then looked so good on paper but with bad results. 

Today is a good example- a torch day that is failing low in temps, overcast and with a biting wind. If we fail the next three weeks this one will supplant 2012, ugh 

 

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Not saying we can't back into something over the next 12 days or so but chances are the shred factory suppression and cutter/late transfer pattern continues. Been saying for a bit that our best chances during this next 12ish days would be via some sort of clipper and I stick by that thinking. Maybe we sneak in some overunning thump around the 25th/26th when the trof digs into the Southwest and ejects wave(s) out under the gradient behind the confluence.

But the better opportunities for a region-wide score looks to be after the 28th when the AO and NAO migrate to a more normalized near-neutral look. Temps will always be a concern but this deep into winter we won't need a massive EPO or vodka cold. Of course cutters could still be in play but with the SER pushed back this increases the support for my thoughts that post Jan 28th thru at least Feb 7 is the period to wait on and continue practicing patience. People are getting ansy, especially me, but I'm seeing more hope than I normally chirp about and I generally refrain from being overly optimistic wrt LR looks. Delayed....but never denied! 

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I swear I'm so sick of waking up to crappy model runs w/a outside chance 10 days out.

Even the overnight rain event seemed to fail. Started around midnight and on it's way out at 4:25am... 

43F

rad.jpg

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It’s warm today..going cut the grass as it continues to grow.
wash the car etc.
Shorts today with a solid sweatshirt is the clothing.

Been light snow on and off at the cabin. When it picks up there is a quick coating that melts off in between snow showers.


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Chilled off to 41F, breezy and mostly overcast w/the sun trying to break through. Feels and looks like Fall more than anything.

Tomorrow seems to be the same, low 40s and breezy... 

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