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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread

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3 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Can Howie too and we'll have our HECS.

We'll have to settle for a 1-3" / 2-4" thing because Howie isn't going anywhere...

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Another episode of as the bi polar weather ball bounces. One would think a 1994, 2014 repeat was imminent browsing the board, while the weeklies come in looking like the earliest start to gardening ever. It was over yesterday, today it's on but wait...

 

 

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Another mostly sunny forecast day, and another socked in with a thick cloud deck. Been the same story for weeks. 

 

 

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T -2 days before epic 1996 redux pattern gets under way.

-Snow blower gassed up

-Fridge stocked with milk and eggs

-No bread, but freezer stocked with vodka

-Netflix binge list complete

Cloudy, 38F.

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45 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Another mostly sunny forecast day, and another socked in with a thick cloud deck. Been the same story for weeks. 

 

 

One thing for sure it just seems like Winter is creeping along at a snails pace, with lows in lower 20"s and highs barely reaching 40 and mostly cloudy since Saturday the ground around my house is frozen, not a deep frost but frozen couple inches anyway. 

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5 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

One thing for sure it just seems like Winter is creeping along at a snails pace, with lows in lower 20"s and highs barely reaching 40 and mostly cloudy since Saturday the ground around my house is frozen, not a deep frost but frozen couple inches anyway. 

This is the coldest mild winter I have ever felt. When is the last time it hit 50F Christmas? No 50's and yet January is +3F, and December was +2F with snow cover here of near 10 days.

 

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15 minutes ago, RedSky said:

This is the coldest mild winter I have ever felt. When is the last time it hit 50F Christmas? No 50's and yet January is +3F, and December was +2F with snow cover here of near 10 days.

 

This

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We have a decent snow window showing itself for the 21st. , though I think people in my neighborhood north are in real fringe danger. My January 15th decision is going to be rough.

 

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33 minutes ago, RedSky said:

We have a decent snow window showing itself for the 21st. , though I think people in my neighborhood north are in real fringe danger. My January 15th decision is going to be rough.

 

I'll honestly be shocked if we have a -NAO/-AO all month and don't get a single measurable snowfall. I know it hasn't been cold but it's been cold enough if we could manage to get a decent storm. I think people(myself included) forget the waiting typically involved in a long term blocking pattern though. Probably because they've been such a rarity lately. But think back to Jan 2010, that was pretty much a -Nao/-AO all month and it took us til the very end of that month to get anything. My point is despite our poor luck so far this month, I think we still see at least 1 warning level event by the end of Jan.  We are at day 8 right now at our first real threat on both the Euro and GFS..Euro obviously being the better solution. Let's hope it's still there tomorrow. We've had a tough time getting threats from the 7-10 day window into the 4-7 day window without falling apart so the next 24 hours will really determine if this one bears closer watching or not. Overall though, I still don't hate the pattern, and it only takes one storm to get us to climo in our area. Blocking is how we accomplish that.

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48 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

 

I'll honestly be shocked if we have a -NAO/-AO all month and don't get a single measurable snowfall. I know it hasn't been cold but it's been cold enough if we could manage to get a decent storm. I think people(myself included) forget the waiting typically involved in a long term blocking pattern though. Probably because they've been such a rarity lately. But think back to Jan 2010, that was pretty much a -Nao/-AO all month and it took us til the very end of that month to get anything. My point is despite our poor luck so far this month, I think we still see at least 1 warning level event by the end of Jan.  We are at day 8 right now at our first real threat on both the Euro and GFS..Euro obviously being the better solution. Let's hope it's still there tomorrow. We've had a tough time getting threats from the 7-10 day window into the 4-7 day window without falling apart so the next 24 hours will really determine if this one bears closer watching or not. Overall though, I still don't hate the pattern, and it only takes one storm to get us to climo in our area. Blocking is how we accomplish that.

EPS members are concentrated north which I did not expect, too much of a stout block if you ask me. This should be fun to follow.

* actually they are south for next week

 

 

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6 hours ago, The Iceman said:

 

I'll honestly be shocked if we have a -NAO/-AO all month and don't get a single measurable snowfall. I know it hasn't been cold but it's been cold enough if we could manage to get a decent storm. I think people(myself included) forget the waiting typically involved in a long term blocking pattern though. Probably because they've been such a rarity lately. But think back to Jan 2010, that was pretty much a -Nao/-AO all month and it took us til the very end of that month to get anything. My point is despite our poor luck so far this month, I think we still see at least 1 warning level event by the end of Jan.  We are at day 8 right now at our first real threat on both the Euro and GFS..Euro obviously being the better solution. Let's hope it's still there tomorrow. We've had a tough time getting threats from the 7-10 day window into the 4-7 day window without falling apart so the next 24 hours will really determine if this one bears closer watching or not. Overall though, I still don't hate the pattern, and it only takes one storm to get us to climo in our area. Blocking is how we accomplish that.

We should have a clipper system early in the week as an appetizer to lay down some foundation. Then maybe something around the 21st is being sniffed out. The pattern looks like a powder keg about to go off around the 26th. So plenty of tracking chances coming up. I agree that yes, some of us, myself included, have forgotten that these patterns really test your patience but have a very high probability of working out for us eventually. Go Flyers!

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Partly Sunny! 47F sitting in the sun feels like 60F. If I can't make 50F today it looks like I won't do it for the month of January which is a rare occurrence.

In other news NYC is tied with 1875 for least snow at a trace following a mid December SECS/MECS. Imby it's .70" 

 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Partly Sunny! 47F sitting in the sun feels like 60F. If I can't make 50F today it looks like I won't do it for the month of January which is a rare occurrence.

In other news NYC is tied with 1875 for least snow at a trace following a mid December SECS/MECS. Imby it's .70" 

 

Just nailed 50F/Sunny....my snow mound may be toast.

sm.jpg

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5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Still 47F not going to happen 

 

You may?

I got blasted w/sunshine....hit 50F. Now partly sunny, dropped a degree just like that, 49F

qua.jpg

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@psuhoffman had an amazing post down in the mid atlantic forum highlighting the threats in the 21-31st time frame. Linking it here: 

I agree with a lot with what he says but I feel a bit more optimistic for the 21-22nd because we are further N than them. Even if it's a 1-3/2-4" inch wave over to light rain/drizzle I think many would take that for the first wave. Then as he breaks down, our chances in subsequent waves only look better from there. Things remained on track today and didn't get pushed back further in time, that's what i like to see. I do believe our patience will pay off! 

 

 

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Some hints we may touch 60F next week. Maybe this is just what the doctor ordered ie Wiggum rule (snow within following 5 days of touching 60F in prime climo). Im all for it...cant hurt things any worse.

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Some hints we may touch 60F next week. Maybe this is just what the doctor ordered ie Wiggum rule (snow within following 5 days of touching 60F in prime climo). Im all for it...cant hurt things any worse.

Where you seeing that? I don't see any days that touch 50 around here briefly flipping through the gfs and euro.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Where you seeing that? I don't see any days that touch 50 around here briefly flipping through the gfs and euro.

 

 

Already vanished on the GFS from last night. Bummer. Euro has a gradient with 60s underneath us.

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14 hours ago, The Iceman said:

@psuhoffman had an amazing post down in the mid atlantic forum highlighting the threats in the 21-31st time frame. Linking it here: 

I agree with a lot with what he says but I feel a bit more optimistic for the 21-22nd because we are further N than them. Even if it's a 1-3/2-4" inch wave over to light rain/drizzle I think many would take that for the first wave. Then as he breaks down, our chances in subsequent waves only look better from there. Things remained on track today and didn't get pushed back further in time, that's what i like to see. I do believe our patience will pay off! 

 

 

Those threats are now getting sheared to hell like most of the others this season. This pattern is either sheared/suppressed or cutter in terms of real weather. H5 is pretty good but the surface is just simply unable to produce. 

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15 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Some hints we may touch 60F next week. Maybe this is just what the doctor ordered ie Wiggum rule (snow within following 5 days of touching 60F in prime climo). Im all for it...cant hurt things any worse.

Funny you say this Ralph--I was thinking the other day that it seems the only way we've gotten snow around here in recent years is a big warm up that ends with a line of severe wx (the Wiggum rule). But yeah, despite the relative mild Jan, no huge warm up seems to be in store.

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Looks like a +12 high temperature departure today, forecasted high of 47. Great day to get outside.

 

Off topic, but any hikers here? Check out Rickets Glen State Park up in Sullivan County sometime. Went yesterday and they had 5" of snow on the ground and ice everywhere. Very dangerous! We're talking 4 foot wide ledges covered in 2" ice directly next to 80' waterfall cliffs. Scary times, would recommend going in the summer if you're not experienced in winter hiking or are afraid of heights lol. Here's a pic I took of the 96' waterfall they got there.

2127883492_Rickets1.thumb.jpg.42f64a68f20646b53b26f64d0c988024.jpg

 

Anyway, looking at the next 10 days, its primarily two words to describe it: Cold and Dry.

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39F cloudy and a stiff breeze, Ugh well its the 15th is this day RedSky? are you throwing the towel in? Im thinking its not looking good for snow I guess there is still a long way to go but we keep trying to catch up to the pattern change and storm threats at 10 days and just not happening. Id still rather have cold and dry opposed to cold, warm, rain, cold.  

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Just an incredibly dull stretch of weather. It’s not just the lack of snow, it’s the lack of anything worth following. I don’t consider it cold and dry if temperatures aren’t even below normal.

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