Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️

[Mailman]

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0091
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0144 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

   Areas affected...northeastern Kentucky...southern/eastern
   Ohio...western/central Pennsylvania...northern West Virginia

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 151944Z - 160145Z

   SUMMARY...Precipitation will expand from southwest to northeast
   across the discussion area.  0.05 to 0.10 inch per 3-hour
   accumulations of freezing rain are expected.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic imagery continues to indicate an expanding
   precipitation shield across the majority of the state of Kentucky
   atop a shallow, sub-freezing airmass.  The precipitation continues
   to outpace northeastward-movement of most model guidance outside of
   certain CAMS (Nam3, HRRR).  These CAMS indicate continued
   northeastward progression of icing (freezing rain and some sleet)
   into Ohio/northern West Virginia over the next hour or so and
   southwestern Pennsylvania after around 22Z or so.  Upstream
   observations have indicated localized precipitation rates ranging as
   high as 0.05 to 0.10 inch per hour in heavier bands/convective
   elements, and the expectation is that this will continue with
   northeastward extent across the discussion area over the next 6
   hours.  At least 3-6 hours of icing is expected areawide.
   Additionally, a few areas of sleet (or even snow) are expected to
   mix in with freezing rain - especially across the northern extent of
   the discussion area where deeper cold air is present.

   ..Cook.. 02/15/2021

[Rd9108]

4 minutes ago, Mailman said:

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0091
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0144 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

   Areas affected...northeastern Kentucky...southern/eastern
   Ohio...western/central Pennsylvania...northern West Virginia

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 151944Z - 160145Z

   SUMMARY...Precipitation will expand from southwest to northeast
   across the discussion area.  0.05 to 0.10 inch per 3-hour
   accumulations of freezing rain are expected.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic imagery continues to indicate an expanding
   precipitation shield across the majority of the state of Kentucky
   atop a shallow, sub-freezing airmass.  The precipitation continues
   to outpace northeastward-movement of most model guidance outside of
   certain CAMS (Nam3, HRRR).  These CAMS indicate continued
   northeastward progression of icing (freezing rain and some sleet)
   into Ohio/northern West Virginia over the next hour or so and
   southwestern Pennsylvania after around 22Z or so.  Upstream
   observations have indicated localized precipitation rates ranging as
   high as 0.05 to 0.10 inch per hour in heavier bands/convective
   elements, and the expectation is that this will continue with
   northeastward extent across the discussion area over the next 6
   hours.  At least 3-6 hours of icing is expected areawide.
   Additionally, a few areas of sleet (or even snow) are expected to
   mix in with freezing rain - especially across the northern extent of
   the discussion area where deeper cold air is present.

   ..Cook.. 02/15/2021 

So looks like I'm not going anywhere later. 

[TimB84]

The 18z NAM continues to make me ask the question: how far south does this ****ing low have to be for the NAM to give us snow and not sleet/zr/rain on Thursday and Friday? I guess the positive here is the track looks good. Maybe the ptype question will be sorted out later.

[north pgh]

32 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

The 18z NAM continues to make me ask the question: how far south does this ****ing low have to be for the NAM to give us snow and not sleet/zr/rain on Thursday and Friday? I guess the positive here is the track looks good. Maybe the ptype question will be sorted out later.

Yes this NAM run is strange. We will have to wait til tonight or tomorrow to see what is really going on. It has a similar setup on thurs as today but today the low is tracking into West Virginia and Thursday it shows it in the gulf with the precip in pa. 

[PghPirates27]

Weather Chanel now has no snow at all starting as mix all rain by 8pm 

[north pgh]

I am heading out at 6:00 for a couple hours. I’ll let you know how it is when I get back.

[CoraopolisWx]

16 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said:

Weather Chanel now has no snow at all starting as mix all rain by 8pm 

Unfortunately those forecasts seem to be automatically generated based directly from model they use.

[Mailman]

30 and rain here.

[Mailman]

18z GFS all snow for Thursday-Friday!

[Ahoff]

Any chance we get dry slotting?  I don't want a ton of ice.

[MikeB_01]

Yuck.... here it comes



.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

6 minutes ago, Mailman said:

18z GFS all snow for Thursday-Friday!

Yeah looks good, the South trend can end now lol

[Ahoff]

2 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Yeah looks good, the South trend can end now lol

Maybe go a little more, before the NW trend begins.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

27 minutes ago, north pgh said:

I am heading out at 6:00 for a couple hours. I’ll let you know how it is when I get back.

Honestly the crews have been out, any pretreated road should be fine. Now untreated will probably get dicey quick.

If temperatures are really in the mid to upper 30s overnight I’d even be willing to bet conditions aren’t to bad tomorrow morning. If that’s wrong though then all bets are off.

[north pgh]

2 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Honestly the crews have been out, any pretreated road should be fine. Now untreated will probably get dicey quick.

If temperatures are really in the mid to upper 30s overnight I’d even be willing to bet conditions aren’t to bad tomorrow morning. If that’s wrong though then all bets are off.

Precip seems to be moving into the south hills. Let’s see if we have any reports from our southern posters. Would still be nice to see a quick burst of snow before the event.

[blackngoldrules]

Precip seems to be moving into the south hills. Let’s see if we have any reports from our southern posters. Would still be nice to see a quick burst of snow before the event.

No snow. Freezing rain here in Bethel.

[SteelCity87]

15 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Precip seems to be moving into the south hills. Let’s see if we have any reports from our southern posters. Would still be nice to see a quick burst of snow before the event.

Freezing rain from the start down there 

[KPITSnow]

Looking upstream from us in this case it’s still only 30 in Parkersburg and Morgantown, so it’s going to be awhile before we bump up over freezing.

[southpark]

16 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Precip seems to be moving into the south hills. Let’s see if we have any reports from our southern posters. Would still be nice to see a quick burst of snow before the event.

NOPE.  Freezing rain here.

[KPITSnow]

North of the city still may have a chance for a quick burst of snow. though from an overall Icing perspective putting down even half an inch on the roads then ice would be a mess.

[meatwad]

Freezing rain here

[KPITSnow]

I lied. Freezing rain here as well. 

[PghPirates27]

Evans city here hoping for at least 20 minutes of snow.

[MikeB_01]

Already a glaze of ice here in Mt Lebanon. No snow


.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Already a glaze of ice here in Mt Lebanon. No snow


.

Same here, not even a sleet pellet. One other thing that will boost zr is that it's happening after sunset. 

[PghPirates27]

And to think just 48 hours ago we were looking at 4-6” plus! Crazy how fast it can change. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

NWS trying to do FB live when they launch weather balloon at 6pm to get current observations if anyone else is interested in that.

[PghPirates27]

33 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said:

Evans city here hoping for at least 20 minutes of snow.

Moderate zr near Evans city. Never got a flake.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Seeing reports of freezing rain as far NW as beaver county already on the NWS Facebook page. Read the comments at your own risk though, certainly some gems in there that will make you further lose faith in humanity... 

[MikeB_01]

Crazy how warm it is already at 850. 4°c. We never stood a chance with that warm air working in here. 27.8° F at the airport right now. Bad icing situation


.