Mailman Posted February 15 Mesoscale Discussion 0091 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 Areas affected...northeastern Kentucky...southern/eastern Ohio...western/central Pennsylvania...northern West Virginia Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 151944Z - 160145Z SUMMARY...Precipitation will expand from southwest to northeast across the discussion area. 0.05 to 0.10 inch per 3-hour accumulations of freezing rain are expected. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic imagery continues to indicate an expanding precipitation shield across the majority of the state of Kentucky atop a shallow, sub-freezing airmass. The precipitation continues to outpace northeastward-movement of most model guidance outside of certain CAMS (Nam3, HRRR). These CAMS indicate continued northeastward progression of icing (freezing rain and some sleet) into Ohio/northern West Virginia over the next hour or so and southwestern Pennsylvania after around 22Z or so. Upstream observations have indicated localized precipitation rates ranging as high as 0.05 to 0.10 inch per hour in heavier bands/convective elements, and the expectation is that this will continue with northeastward extent across the discussion area over the next 6 hours. At least 3-6 hours of icing is expected areawide. Additionally, a few areas of sleet (or even snow) are expected to mix in with freezing rain - especially across the northern extent of the discussion area where deeper cold air is present. ..Cook.. 02/15/2021 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rd9108 Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Mailman said: Mesoscale Discussion 0091 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 Areas affected...northeastern Kentucky...southern/eastern Ohio...western/central Pennsylvania...northern West Virginia Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 151944Z - 160145Z SUMMARY...Precipitation will expand from southwest to northeast across the discussion area. 0.05 to 0.10 inch per 3-hour accumulations of freezing rain are expected. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic imagery continues to indicate an expanding precipitation shield across the majority of the state of Kentucky atop a shallow, sub-freezing airmass. The precipitation continues to outpace northeastward-movement of most model guidance outside of certain CAMS (Nam3, HRRR). These CAMS indicate continued northeastward progression of icing (freezing rain and some sleet) into Ohio/northern West Virginia over the next hour or so and southwestern Pennsylvania after around 22Z or so. Upstream observations have indicated localized precipitation rates ranging as high as 0.05 to 0.10 inch per hour in heavier bands/convective elements, and the expectation is that this will continue with northeastward extent across the discussion area over the next 6 hours. At least 3-6 hours of icing is expected areawide. Additionally, a few areas of sleet (or even snow) are expected to mix in with freezing rain - especially across the northern extent of the discussion area where deeper cold air is present. ..Cook.. 02/15/2021 So looks like I'm not going anywhere later. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TimB84 Posted February 15 The 18z NAM continues to make me ask the question: how far south does this ****ing low have to be for the NAM to give us snow and not sleet/zr/rain on Thursday and Friday? I guess the positive here is the track looks good. Maybe the ptype question will be sorted out later. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
north pgh Posted February 15 32 minutes ago, TimB84 said: The 18z NAM continues to make me ask the question: how far south does this ****ing low have to be for the NAM to give us snow and not sleet/zr/rain on Thursday and Friday? I guess the positive here is the track looks good. Maybe the ptype question will be sorted out later. Yes this NAM run is strange. We will have to wait til tonight or tomorrow to see what is really going on. It has a similar setup on thurs as today but today the low is tracking into West Virginia and Thursday it shows it in the gulf with the precip in pa. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PghPirates27 Posted February 15 Weather Chanel now has no snow at all starting as mix all rain by 8pm Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
north pgh Posted February 15 I am heading out at 6:00 for a couple hours. I’ll let you know how it is when I get back. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CoraopolisWx Posted February 15 16 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said: Weather Chanel now has no snow at all starting as mix all rain by 8pm Unfortunately those forecasts seem to be automatically generated based directly from model they use. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mailman Posted February 15 18z GFS all snow for Thursday-Friday! 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ahoff Posted February 15 Any chance we get dry slotting? I don't want a ton of ice. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MikeB_01 Posted February 15 Yuck.... here it comes . Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, Mailman said: 18z GFS all snow for Thursday-Friday! Yeah looks good, the South trend can end now lol Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ahoff Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Yeah looks good, the South trend can end now lol Maybe go a little more, before the NW trend begins. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 15 27 minutes ago, north pgh said: I am heading out at 6:00 for a couple hours. I’ll let you know how it is when I get back. Honestly the crews have been out, any pretreated road should be fine. Now untreated will probably get dicey quick. If temperatures are really in the mid to upper 30s overnight I’d even be willing to bet conditions aren’t to bad tomorrow morning. If that’s wrong though then all bets are off. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
north pgh Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Honestly the crews have been out, any pretreated road should be fine. Now untreated will probably get dicey quick. If temperatures are really in the mid to upper 30s overnight I’d even be willing to bet conditions aren’t to bad tomorrow morning. If that’s wrong though then all bets are off. Precip seems to be moving into the south hills. Let’s see if we have any reports from our southern posters. Would still be nice to see a quick burst of snow before the event. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
blackngoldrules Posted February 15 Precip seems to be moving into the south hills. Let’s see if we have any reports from our southern posters. Would still be nice to see a quick burst of snow before the event.No snow. Freezing rain here in Bethel. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SteelCity87 Posted February 15 15 minutes ago, north pgh said: Precip seems to be moving into the south hills. Let’s see if we have any reports from our southern posters. Would still be nice to see a quick burst of snow before the event. Freezing rain from the start down there Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KPITSnow Posted February 15 Looking upstream from us in this case it’s still only 30 in Parkersburg and Morgantown, so it’s going to be awhile before we bump up over freezing. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
southpark Posted February 15 16 minutes ago, north pgh said: Precip seems to be moving into the south hills. Let’s see if we have any reports from our southern posters. Would still be nice to see a quick burst of snow before the event. NOPE. Freezing rain here. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KPITSnow Posted February 15 North of the city still may have a chance for a quick burst of snow. though from an overall Icing perspective putting down even half an inch on the roads then ice would be a mess. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
meatwad Posted February 15 Freezing rain here Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KPITSnow Posted February 15 I lied. Freezing rain here as well. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PghPirates27 Posted February 15 Evans city here hoping for at least 20 minutes of snow. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MikeB_01 Posted February 15 Already a glaze of ice here in Mt Lebanon. No snow. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Already a glaze of ice here in Mt Lebanon. No snow . Same here, not even a sleet pellet. One other thing that will boost zr is that it's happening after sunset. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PghPirates27 Posted February 15 And to think just 48 hours ago we were looking at 4-6” plus! Crazy how fast it can change. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 15 NWS trying to do FB live when they launch weather balloon at 6pm to get current observations if anyone else is interested in that. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PghPirates27 Posted February 15 33 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said: Evans city here hoping for at least 20 minutes of snow. Moderate zr near Evans city. Never got a flake. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 15 Seeing reports of freezing rain as far NW as beaver county already on the NWS Facebook page. Read the comments at your own risk though, certainly some gems in there that will make you further lose faith in humanity... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MikeB_01 Posted February 15 Crazy how warm it is already at 850. 4°c. We never stood a chance with that warm air working in here. 27.8° F at the airport right now. Bad icing situation . Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites