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JoMo

MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion

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26 minutes ago, JoMo said:

What a mess. Temps going to be right on the line here it looks like.  

Same up here in North Tulsa....couldn't be more on the line....its either going to be 32.5 degrees and raining, or 31.9 and freezing rain and sleet.....HRRR is just so so close...and let's face it....asking these models to predict the very mile marker of the freezing line isn't reasonable. So a 10 mile deviance is the difference between an ice storm and just a cold rain.

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1 minute ago, MUWX said:

Unless we get to 30 or below, I’m not worried. 31-32 and rain won’t be able to cause problems. 

Well, it's primarily falling at night, and powerlines are higher up so it will be colder than that. 850 MB temps are quite toasty though so I'm curious if the rain will actually help warm up the lower atmosphere. 

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2 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Well, it's primarily falling at night, and powerlines are higher up so it will be colder than that. 850 MB temps are quite toasty though so I'm curious if the rain will actually help warm up the lower atmosphere. 

Calling for 33 here tonight and rain lol, our friends in KC look to get hit pretty hard with this one.

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Also watching that quick moving moisture starved system coming through on Saturday for some snowfall. It's very cold at all levels so maybe some weird scattered convective type snows?

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The Canadian is way too warm at 18z, and even the latest HRRR is slightly too warm. That is concerning given what they show later this evening. 

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20 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

Tight rope for Wichita. If we get >4” of snow, it will be the biggest storm in almost 7 years. Insane. 

I hear you rockchalk. I live just southeast of Wichita right on the Sedgwick Butler county line and it feels like it's been forever since we've had a snow that completely covered the grass.  This has been a fascinating storm to track and I'm hoping it snaps that streak. A few things I'm watching: Are the Hi Res models showing that eastward shift of qpf on to something? How quick will the changeover to snow occur? I still think there is merit to a heavy band of snow developing somewhere in this area that could over achieve and drop 6"+ even though we are only in a Winter Weather Advisory. 

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Present radar for Southern Oklahoma at 2:15 Thurs afternoon.  Models had much of this as rain starting out.

image.thumb.png.eaa750d2df71ea99d52061a3c72284e0.png

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:blahblah:This is my current forecast. One or two degrees is very important. No model is getting this right at the present time. I am not sure how temps warm overnight with ENE or NE surface winds. 

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Weather Service in Norman had Okc with a high of 40 today. We are at 34 now. Also Norman pulled Central Oklahoma and along I-44 just West of Tulsa into Winter Storm Warning.

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2 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

:blahblah:This is my current forecast. One or two degrees is very important. No model is getting this right at the present time. I am not sure how temps warm overnight with ENE or NE surface winds. 

Hahah, yeah, Dew point temps are in the mid to upper 20's in NE OK, with those NE winds, that's going to mitigate that from moderating much. I really do think the eventual freeze line is going to be along Wagoner county east of Tulsa.

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Just now, lokee said:

Weather Service in Norman had Okc with a high of 40 today. We are at 34 now. Also Norman pulled Central Oklahoma and along I-44 just West of Tulsa into Winter Storm Warning.

Oh look at that.

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Here in KC. Looks like EAX shows 4.4” of snow for my location. Honestly I’d be surprised if we didn’t end up with more. Not expecting too much ice accumulation here. Would love for the ECMWF to verify — we’d likely end up with around 8” if it did. 
 

Looks like the 18z HRRR bumped snow totals down a notch... 

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16 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Hahah, yeah, Dew point temps are in the mid to upper 20's in NE OK, with those NE winds, that's going to mitigate that from moderating much. I really do think the eventual freeze line is going to be along Wagoner county east of Tulsa.

I took this screen shot for you of the radar. If you draw out the freezing line to the NE you are pretty close.

image.thumb.png.bbe1717b7bf280679e48512f6734a969.png

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Just saw a report on F/B from the Texas State Park System. Big Bend State Park has gotten 12 to 24 inches of snow. 

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