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wxeyeNH

NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

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Monday's 12Z Euro has a nice noreaster for New England next weekend.   Still way out there but a cold storm with perhaps elevation storm.  Mid October elevation snow is not very far fetched for us.  Although I assume northern areas now have mostly bare trees but Central New England still foliage is still on the trees.  Want to get all the leaves down before any heavy wet snow threats or high wind threats.

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2 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Obviously not taking this verbatim, but do expect some PF picnic table shots. Ridiculous soaker next weekend on Euro, prob would be feet of snow for more than the just the high elevations if it was a few weeks later.

image.thumb.png.672b016caf6eb109e050491f5f51e655.png

A few weeks from now is still just November, so I think the difference would only mean slightly lower snow levels.  Obviously there can be special freak events that hit lower elevations with a couple feet like the October snow bomb, but apparently November is still not a month where big snows can really hit the valleys.  I wouldn’t have thought that, but seeing the November snowfall discussions in the forum over the past several years has given me the impression that the atmosphere is still not where it needs to be for big snows to hit the lower elevations at that point.  I can’t remember the exact details, but the tenor was such that it seemed like even a November storm of several inches was a pretty big deal for the valleys.  In my own 14 seasons worth of records at this site, I’ve only recorded two November storms of greater than 12 inches, and nothing that’s even hit 18 inches.  That’s obviously only one spot in a big region, but this site is pretty snowy for a valley location, and that’s a decent stretch of time.  It would seem like November could easily just behave as sort of a “December junior”, with big storms, but fewer of them, but that doesn’t appear to be the case.

In any event, the BTV NWS is starting to mention the snow possibilities in their discussion, so that’s a sign that the potential is there:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

For those snow lovers out there, we`ve got some good news. If you want to venture to elevations above 3500 ft on Saturday there is a very good chance you`ll see at least a rain/snow mix if not all snow as models show 850 mb temperature more than cool enough to support snow at higher elevations. We won`t speculate on snow accumulations just yet but there could be some decent accumulations depending on the degree of cold air advection behind the cold front.

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55 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

A few weeks from now is still just November, so I think the difference would only mean slightly lower snow levels.  Obviously there can be special freak events that hit lower elevations with a couple feet like the October snow bomb, but apparently November is still not a month where big snows can really hit the valleys.  I wouldn’t have thought that, but seeing the November snowfall discussions in the forum over the past several years has given me the impression that the atmosphere is still not where it needs to be for big snows to hit the lower elevations at that point.  I can’t remember the exact details, but the tenor was such that it seemed like even a November storm of several inches was a pretty big deal for the valleys.  In my own 14 seasons worth of records at this site, I’ve only recorded two November storms of greater than 12 inches, and nothing that’s even hit 18 inches.  That’s obviously only one spot in a big region, but this site is pretty snowy for a valley location, and that’s a decent stretch of time.  It would seem like November could easily just behave as sort of a “December junior”, with big storms, but fewer of them, but that doesn’t appear to be the case.

In any event, the BTV NWS is starting to mention the snow possibilities in their discussion, so that’s a sign that the potential is there:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

For those snow lovers out there, we`ve got some good news. If you want to venture to elevations above 3500 ft on Saturday there is a very good chance you`ll see at least a rain/snow mix if not all snow as models show 850 mb temperature more than cool enough to support snow at higher elevations. We won`t speculate on snow accumulations just yet but there could be some decent accumulations depending on the degree of cold air advection behind the cold front.

True..guess more like a month plus--mid-late Nov for spots outside of 2k+. Nov 2018 was super snowy for lots of spots, but I think it was mostly mid month and later if I recall.

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1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

True..guess more like a month plus--mid-late Nov for spots outside of 2k+. Nov 2018 was super snowy for lots of spots, but I think it was mostly mid-month and later if I recall.

Yes, November 2018 was a strong one for snowfall, and as usual, it was the second half of the month with the bulk of the accumulation.  We received only 4 to 5 inches in the first half of the month, but 30 inches in the second half.

I’d already put together a list of November storms ≥4” at our site for a previous discussion, so I’ve added that list below.  You can see how it’s been tough to even break 12” with a storm, and in terms of what’s typical, we really only average a bit more than one November storm a season that drops 4” or more.  You can also see how heavily weighted the list is to the second half of the month.  The strength of November 2018 is evident from the list though, with three storms from that month making the cut.

11/20/2008      14.2”

11/26/2018      13.3”

11/26/2014      11.6”

11/20/2016      11.6”

11/23/2011      11.0”

11/26/2013      8.2”

11/27/2007      7.5”

11/15/2018      7.2”

11/7/2019        7.1”

11/20/2017      6.1”

11/10/2019      5.1”

11/26/2017      4.7”

11/21/2007      4.5”

11/29/2012      4.4”

11/23/2013      4.1”

11/21/2018      4.0”

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Noticing town still really busy and outdoor restaurants still crowded even mid week.  Probably a combination of influx of new residents and work from home people who can now just extend their weekend trips into the work week.

I was in Walgreens today and overhead a guy in front of me chatting with the cashier saying he came from Minneapolis to escape the protests and unrest in parts of the city, saying he was hearing gunshots many nights as he lived downtown somewhere. No idea how he picked this town in VT--- if it was random online research or had some type of past local connection, but things are certainly different, thats for sure.

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First flakes for some tomorrow morning?   I'm right at the SE end of the weenie snow maps but maybe with my elevation I can score a few mangled flakes at the end?  I wonder what date I usually see first flakage?   Accumulating snow if rare in Mid October but flurries at the tail end of a deepening storm isn't so much

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Found a very sharp high elevation snow line today, with a surprising difference even between 3,500ft and 4,000ft.  Up on the ridge at 4,000ft it was more like a healthy 3-4" while it was just a coating to 1" at 3,500ft.  I did see traces of snow on the ground on the leaves as low as 2,600ft though, so it was melting while I was up there.

Reported 1" in to the NWS for the Stake as it was melted out around the base of the stake, but there was a couple inches in the vicinity... so called it 1" just to get something into the record books that there was measurable snow up there today.

121570687_5245882515437192_3181515774299

121691745_5245881455437298_4917339920345

121572206_10104346980388320_159032003139

 

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22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Found a very sharp high elevation snow line today, with a surprising difference even between 3,500ft and 4,000ft.  Up on the ridge at 4,000ft it was more like a healthy 3-4" while it was just a coating to 1" at 3,500ft.  I did see traces of snow on the ground on the leaves as low as 2,600ft though, so it was melting while I was up there.

Reported 1" in to the NWS for the Stake as it was melted out around the base of the stake, but there was a couple inches in the vicinity... so called it 1" just to get something into the record books that there was measurable snow up there today.

121570687_5245882515437192_3181515774299

121691745_5245881455437298_4917339920345

121572206_10104346980388320_159032003139

 

PF,  that last picture is award winning beautiful!   I found a site that you can upload your favorite picture for a jigsaw puzzle.  (Zazzle).  Going to steal this picture and post on my timeline.  

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Thank you Phin and Alex for your great webcams.  Now I can see what is going on in the Northern Presidentials and beyond.   I also bookmark the Waterville Valley and Loon Mountain Cam.  The Loon Mtn cam just faces a ski slope so it's hard to tell what is going on around that site.  Do any of you have cam site that faces into Franconia Notch?   I wish Cannon had a high quality cam.  They do have a cam at the top.  The State of NH does have some good road cams but they cycle through the day instead of a higher quality video feed.  You have to stop it at the last frame.

Okay I'm totally rambling.  Bottom line,  looking for more Cam sites in N NH

 

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We were up in the NEK on Saturday for a soccer game at North Country Union, so I can pass along a couple of pictures.  When we headed past Mt. Mansfield in the morning, the clouds didn’t really let us see where the snow line was located, and we didn’t see any signs of snow in the valleys or even the intermediate peaks where we were.  So indeed, even over as far north and east as Newport, any snow accumulations were nothing like what was present further east into NH.

We did get to see Mansfield on the way home, so I grabbed a shot of the snow on The Chin:

17OCT20A.jpg

You can really see in that shot how much stick season is becoming the look even in parts of the valleys.  There’s still some nice foliage out there though; when we were in Newport we stopped by Lake Memphremagog to check out the views, and there was still lots of foliage along the lake.  As you can see in the image, even up on Mont Owl’s Head at around 2,500’ there weren’t any signs of snow though.

17OCT20B.jpg

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Well, it looks like the weather is going to be getting more active in the coming week – I’m seeing multiple rounds of precipitation possibilities, and most of them include some snow mentioned, even down here in the valley.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

As of 326 PM EDT Friday...Basically, periods of showers (both rain and snow) look possible through next week as we see temperatures remain around 10 degrees below normal.

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Short term, I wonder if we can start as a very brief period of snow on Monday morning.  I’ve seen it on a few models here and there over the past couple days.

Soundings look pretty isothermal and it hits at a favorable part of the day around sunrise to 12z from here and points NE into N.NH/W.ME.

87968D0A-A42F-4442-83AE-79A630E0381A.thumb.png.b3f6eee677d09af961b331ecb340326f.png

AD5DC935-073C-4FA6-A9E7-09DAFEBA302B.thumb.png.f26d25c22a99ecedfcc771cef256b69c.png

6AB34287-2451-4841-B1DA-07EE6530CD45.thumb.png.fd3efe08f8b90f0bcfe317f2b6f45acf.png

 
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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Short term, I wonder if we can start as a very brief period of snow on Monday morning.  I’ve seen it on a few models here and there over the past couple days.

Soundings look pretty isothermal and it hits at a favorable part of the day around sunrise to 12z from here and points NE into N.NH/W.ME.

87968D0A-A42F-4442-83AE-79A630E0381A.thumb.png.b3f6eee677d09af961b331ecb340326f.png

AD5DC935-073C-4FA6-A9E7-09DAFEBA302B.thumb.png.f26d25c22a99ecedfcc771cef256b69c.png

6AB34287-2451-4841-B1DA-07EE6530CD45.thumb.png.fd3efe08f8b90f0bcfe317f2b6f45acf.png

 
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Already in deep winter tracking mode by MD standards. I love it. 

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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Already in deep winter tracking mode by MD standards. I love it. 

:lol: I could see analyzing a 1-2 hour period of wintry precip before rain down there in mid-winter.  Sort of like a perpetual NNE October/November all winter long.

Anyway, over by you and Alex has the best chance as starting as some snow or wintry mix with the WAA moving in aloft initially over a very marginally cold air mass.

 

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

:lol: I could see analyzing a 1-2 hour period of wintry precip before rain down there in mid-winter.  Sort of like a perpetual NNE October/November all winter long.

Anyway, over by you and Alex has the best chance as starting as some snow or wintry mix with the WAA moving in aloft initially over a very marginally cold air mass.

 

Yes, basically early to mid November in Randolph is deep, deep central MD winter.

I have checked the CoCoRaHS data from both locations and it's a dead ringer match. LOL

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Pretty detailed BTV AFD/area forecast discussion regarding the short term system.

 

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Saturday...Positive thickness advection and an
influx of deep moisture should produce abundant clouds and
light precipitation on Monday. Temperatures at the onset of
precipitation should be cool enough to allow for some wintry
precipitation. Portions of the Northeast Kingdom and areas at or
above 2000ft agl should see some snow at the onset, followed by
transition to a wintry mix, and then rain. Forecast soundings
around Saranac Lake, NY and Nulhegan, VT have fairly complex
thermal profile with the inversion far aloft around 7000ft agl
only just above freezing with a layer below freezing sandwiched
in between wet-bulb temperatures near freezing at the surface.
Elsewhere, depth of warmer air is greater and stronger, which
would make for a cold rain. Overall, the best forcing and
precipitation takes place in the afternoon, with profiles
becoming above freezing with a quick transition towards rain
(except perhaps across the far northeast corner of Vermont).
Thus, it looks like a fairly damp and cool Monday with forecast
highs in the mid 40s. For such a weak low, the precipitation it
produces is impressive, aided by the deep-level of saturation
and good isentropic lift. Cross isobaric flow at potential
temperatures of 295K should lift moisture from around 850mb to
780mb with relative ease. Rainfall totals of 0.25"-0.50" seems
likely.

Weak surface low deepens as it departs eastwards. Some
northwesterly flow should allow precipitation to linger higher
peaks and near the foothills with semi-blocked flow and higher
relative humidities remaining. The DGZ becomes unsaturated,
though, and would likely not produce anything high quality from
the departing system. Overnight lows expected to fall into the
30s.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Short term, I wonder if we can start as a very brief period of snow on Monday morning.  I’ve seen it on a few models here and there over the past couple days.

Soundings look pretty isothermal and it hits at a favorable part of the day around sunrise to 12z from here and points NE into N.NH/W.ME.

Yeah, I’ve seen that, and the BTV NWS forecast discussion has touched on it as well.

Along with the Monday morning stuff, there’s actually a bit of backside snow potential showing up in some of the models as well – that would be about 24 hour later in the Tuesday morning timeframe.

Those are some of the potential rounds of precip. that I mentioned in my previous post – some models have a bit of something on Wednesday, and then there seems to be another possibility in the Thursday-Friday timeframe.

The 540 dam line fluctuating back and forth around here to varying degrees on the models is certainly consistent with frozen not being too far away, and you know we’re really starting to get into that season when the potential shots of moisture start showing up in the models every 1 to 2 days.

MountainMagic.jpg

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Event totals: 0.6” Snow/0.15” L.E.

As the forecast suggested, there was a bit of snow early this morning, and it stuck even down here at 500’.  There was 0.6” on the boards at observations time, which did look like it could have melted some since whenever most of it fell.

This is about a week on the late side for average occurrence of first frozen precipitation here, but just a day off for the average date of first accumulating snow, so very typical there.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.09 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 6.7

Snow Density: 15.0% H2O

Temperature: 34.0 F

Sky: Light Rain/Snow (1-2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches

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