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Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted

The euro initialized with Isaias at 1000 mb 12z Friday. It has him down to 995 mb by 12z Saturday.

Isaia’s current min surface pressure is 991 mb.

No model, including the 12z Euro has this storm weakening between now and tomorrow.

So you take this piece of guidance and you toss....far....

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The euro initialized with Isaias at 1000 mb 12z Friday. It has him down to 995 mb by 12z Saturday.

Isaia’s current min surface pressure is 991 mb.

No model, including the 12z Euro has this storm weakening between now and tomorrow.

So you take this piece of guidance and you toss....far....

models never get the strength right this far out

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PB-99

PB-99

Posted
Posted
On 7/31/2020 at 2:37 PM, forkyfork said:

it didn't. maue made an algorithm that grossly over estimates wind gusts 

Not calling you a liar, but do you have another max wind gust map from yesterday`s 12z run of another algo that shows that ?

If that's the case, it will not be used.

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forkyfork

forkyfork

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

Not calling you a liar, but do you have another max wind gust map from yesterday`s 12z run of another algo that shows that ?

If that`s the case, it will not be used. 

 

good meteorologists use forecast soundings to determine wind gusts

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PB-99

PB-99

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

he counts sleet as snow. lol

That`s known and those 10 to 1 maps have been wrong for 7 years. Same goes for TT. 

But I am talking about his gusts maps, he says his algo are the related soundings.

So I am just asking do you have another 12z max wind gust map from 12z yesterday from a diff algo to show his soundings are off in any way.

Happy not to use corrupt output, but Ryan says those are the soundings . 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
Just now, PB-99 said:

That`s known and those 10 to 1 maps have been wrong for 5 years.

But I am talking about his gusts maps, he says his algo are the related soundings.

So I am just asking, do you have another 12z max wind gust map from 12z yesterday from a diff algo to show his soundings are off in any way.

Happy not to use corrupted output, by Ryan says those are the soundings . 

There are two things that are usually off with the Euro products from weather.us, weathermodels.com, and weatherbell model maps. The wind gusts are almost always too high compared other guidance. The other guidance gust products seem closer to what you would expect from the soundings. The other issue is that those maps unrealistically drop NYC temperatures with snow cover during the winter. We can remember all those false -10 to -15 readings for NYC several winters back. It would probably be helpful to have someone here that works for ECMWF and ask them about these issues directly. Whether it’s an issue with the model or how some venders process the data.

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PB-99

PB-99

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There are two things that are usually off with the Euro products from weather.us, weathermodels.com, and weatherbell model maps. The wind gusts are almost always too high compared other guidance. The other guidance gust products seem closer to what you would expect from the soundings. The other issue is that those maps unrealistically drop NYC temperatures with snow cover during the winter. We can remember all those false -10 to -15 readings for NYC several winters back. It would probably be helpful to have someone here that works for ECMWF and ask them about these issues directly. Whether it’s an issue with the model or how some venders process the data.

Which leads me to believe it`s a ECMWF issue and just gets caught up in the coding. The snow ratio map issues crosses over even into Levi`s site and no one really uses them to forecast.

I would love to see a 10m wind gust chart from another algo from yesterday, pivotal etc and see how far off Ryan was with a 120 max gust S of LI. 

According to him he is just using the soundings. 

But Forky could be right, I just want to see how far off he was/ is. 

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

I think it’s getting clear that landfall in Florida will occur as a weak storm. 

Once it became clear this would not intensify, that took away the poleward option some talked about had that happened.  The weaker storm will just cruise NW and into FL.   

edit-however the 3K nam has a stronger storm further east....

nam3km_ref_frzn_seus_32.png

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

I think it'll hug near the coast and stay offshore.  We've seen that kind of behavior before.  The convection fires up over the ocean, so the center gets pulled to it, at least that's my interpretation of what happens.

Friction with the land too coming in at that angle.  Michael missed entirely...wonder if the 3K nam is onto that....

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