Winter 2020-21 Discussion

[Rhino16]

Maybe... we get a storm like the December 9-10 2018 one. There was a ton of snow in Richmond and South, but it melted in three days. If we get one of those, I’m okay.

Edit: i know everyone rolls their eyes when they remember that storm, but just maybe it could happen. It was odd because only the really “dumb” models expected it, and no one listened.

[Maestrobjwa]

33 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Maybe... we get a storm like the December 9-10 2018 one. There was a ton of snow in Richmond and South, but it melted in three days. If we get one of those, I’m okay.

Edit: i know everyone rolls their eyes when they remember that storm, but just maybe it could happen. It was odd because only the really “dumb” models expected it, and no one listened.

Now is it me, or...did we just get unlucky on the trajectory on that one? @psuhoffman was that a product of the fast zonal flow...and that basically if it had started a little higher in latitude on the west coast (or wherever the storm started), we could've gotten it? Had it not been for the zonal flow...does the storm look different?

[frd]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The QBO has been behaving erratically lately. Honestly the last 3 years are unprecedented in QBO behavior. Maybe try current rise is only temporary and by winter it tanks again.

I know I read a couple posts by HM on the QBO behavior during the past 6 months,  and even recall some insights as well from Dr Amy Butler.  Strange year so far for the QBO for sure. Good luck to those whom want to put out a winter forecast for 20/21. I would say the odds of discovering the correct winter drivers at about 33 %.  Those who love the warm train might go climo ( 1990 - 2019 ) + 2 degrees. Those cold and snow weenies better hope for a 95-96 repeat.   Sure we can get a cold snow event but difficult to see cold lock in with the same issues re-appearing such as the enhanced fast Pac jet and difficulties in achieving properly timed HL blocking ( or any blocking for that matter) along with the elusive -NAO.  

 Speaking of stratospheric oddities. 

 

    

 

 

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Not that anyone should be  based on what any of these climate models are depicting at this point, but this pattern should look familiar. Hard to bet against the 3 month DJF h5 mean looking something like this when all is said and done.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Now hang on...how would this mix with a La Nina? Aren't ninas cold and suppressive like 2017-18? (Have there been any warm ninas?) How does a SE ridge like this...mix with a nina? Anomalous la nina winter fun? 

Now I could very well be oversimplifying, of course...In my brain I'm just remembering the visuals of the parade of HP's in the middle of the country, suppressed storm/misses, seeing all the deep blue pushing to the south... So I now I see the red (SE ridge) pushing that up...but I'll wait for @psuhoffman or anybody else to tell me why it's not that simple and/or doesn't work that way

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now hang on...how would this mix with a La Nina? Aren't ninas cold and suppressive like 2017-18? (Have there been any warm ninas?) How does a SE ridge like this...mix with a nina? Anomalous la nina winter fun? 

Now I could very well be oversimplifying, of course...In my brain I'm just remembering the visuals of the parade of HP's in the middle of the country, suppressed storm/misses, seeing all the deep blue pushing to the south... So I now I see the red (SE ridge) pushing that up...but I'll wait for @psuhoffman or anybody else to tell me why it's not that simple and/or doesn't work that way

 

Sorry not laughing at you, but the bolded made me laugh.

A SE ridge (and generally warmer temps along the east coast) is pretty typical in La Nina years, esp moderate to strong La Ninas. As always, other factors/indices will impact the overall pattern as well, so not like it's always a complete torch all the time. Lucky for us, this winter looks to feature a pretty weak event, and may end up being more of a cold neutral. Given our apparent "new normal" background state however, I would still expect frequent episodes of SE ridging, with the mean trough located out west.

[CAPE]

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now hang on...how would this mix with a La Nina? Aren't ninas cold and suppressive like 2017-18? (Have there been any warm ninas?) How does a SE ridge like this...mix with a nina? Anomalous la nina winter fun? 

Now I could very well be oversimplifying, of course...In my brain I'm just remembering the visuals of the parade of HP's in the middle of the country, suppressed storm/misses, seeing all the deep blue pushing to the south... So I now I see the red (SE ridge) pushing that up...but I'll wait for @psuhoffman or anybody else to tell me why it's not that simple and/or doesn't work that way

I don’t have time for details but most Nina’s feature a suppressed weak STJ and thus dryer then normal here. Some can be colder/warmer depending on the axis of the pac ridge and EPO. So it’s usually warm/dry or cooler/dry.   And it’s a 50/50 split about. The colder variants (2009/2011/2018) typically end up mediocre in snow. Between median to mean.  The warmer variants typically are our absolute dreg total awful crap winters like 2008, 2012, 2017.  

[psuhoffman]

42 minutes ago, Mersky said:

The strength of the La Niña is a huge factor in how it turns out also. If a strong La Niña was looking likely this winter you could almost start looking to winter 2021-2022. This one isn’t going to be moderate or strong so that maybe the only hope that this winter isn’t a total disaster. Expectations should be for a dud. Maybe not as bad as last year but getting to normal snowfall is going to be difficult imo. Maybe Lady Luck finally falls our way this winter. 

True...but due to several other related influences  the pac base state has tended towards a Nina ish configuration even when we were in a neutral or warm enso state. So I am somewhat pessimistic about how an actual Nina, even a weak one, plays out in that background state!  Hope I’m wrong. 

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

True...but due to several other related influences  the pac base state has tended towards a Nina ish configuration even when we were in a neutral or warm enso state. So I am somewhat pessimistic about how an actual Nina, even a weak one, plays out in that background state!  Hope I’m wrong. 

I pretty much said the same thing in my post above in response to Maestro's post.

I have fond memories of 1986-87, esp Jan and Feb. Was that winter a cold neutral? I have seen some references to it as a weak Nina, but not sure that's correct. The latter half of the winter behaved more like a NIno IIRC. It also featured some decent HL blocking.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I pretty much said the same thing in my post above in response to Maestro's post.

I have fond memories of 1986-87, esp Jan and Feb. Was that winter a cold neutral? I have seen some references to it as a weak Nina, but not sure that's correct. The latter half of the winter behaved more like a NIno IIRC. It also featured some decent HL blocking.

87 was a moderate possibly modoki Nino. There is some debate whether it was a central or basin wide or modoki and I’m not interested in that debate again but it was not a fully east based nino. In other words it was a typical setup for a big snow year in the mid Atlantic. 

[psuhoffman]

@CAPE

Other than 1996 you have to go WAY back to get another Nina of any kind that ended up better than about normal snowfall in the DC/Balt corridor. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

87 was a moderate possibly modoki Nino. There is some debate whether it was a central or basin wide or modoki and I’m not interested in that debate again but it was not a fully east based nino. In other words it was a typical setup for a big snow year in the mid Atlantic. 

Yeah you are right. It was 1988 that was  Nina. 

Jan-Feb 1987 was sweet.

[CAPE]

^ that was the year I moved down here from Carroll county. I was like-  damn people said it doesn't snow much here? Really???

eta- that Superbowl Sunday storm is easily top 10 in my lifetime. Terrible game though.

[Mr. Kevin]

I have a question for someone. I feel that I make a valid point. If this niña remains east based, providing we have one by winter, would that matter compared to if it was central or west based? HM has always said a weak niña promotes a poleward aleutian ridge usually in December. 

[psuhoffman]

39 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

I have a question for someone. I feel that I make a valid point. If this niña remains east based, providing we have one by winter, would that matter compared to if it was central or west based? HM has always said a weak niña promotes a poleward aleutian ridge usually in December. 

I’ve seen some postulation that an east based Nina is better than west. Makes sense. Whatever forcing there is we don’t want it Centered just off the pac coast pumping a downstream ridge over the eastern conus. But I don’t think the difference is as great as with a nino. 

[Maestrobjwa]

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE

Other than 1996 you have to go WAY back to get another Nina of any kind that ended up better than about normal snowfall in the DC/Balt corridor. 

How far back we talkin'? Lol

[CAPE]

5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How far back we talkin'? Lol

1927

[CAPE]

More data on temperature tendencies during a La Nina winter. Certainly some variability, but you can see from these panels that a mean ridge in the east is pretty common. The problem with the years that are on the colder side, is they also tend to be dry for the SE and MA region due to dominant northern jets (Polar/Pacific).

 

[frd]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

More data on temperature tendencies during a La Nina winter. Certainly some variability, but you can see from these panels that a mean ridge in the east is pretty common. The problem with the years that are on the colder side, is they also tend to be dry for the SE and MA region due to dominant northern jets (Polar/Pacific)

 

Speaking of Nina odds. A post by Don S yesterday below. If you are wondering today's SOI is + 22.40 

Seems to me a good bet we get some sort of Nina developing by Fall.  

The one thing that interests me is the backdrop of the solar minimum.  And, the eventual outcome of the QBO in Dec . and early winter. 

 

<

Today, the SOI was +25.73, which was its highest figure since October 14, 2018. In all three August cases when the SOI rose to +25.00 or above and the August ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.75C or below, winter saw a La Niña. The most recent such case was August 2010.

>

 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, frd said:

 

Speaking of Nina odds. A post by Don S yesterday below. If you are wondering today's SOI is + 22.40 

Seems to me a good bet we get some sort of Nina developing by Fall.  

The one thing that interests me is the backdrop of the solar minimum.  And, the eventual outcome of the QBO in Dec . and early winter. 

 

<

Today, the SOI was +25.73, which was its highest figure since October 14, 2018. In all three August cases when the SOI rose to +25.00 or above and the August ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.75C or below, winter saw a La Niña. The most recent such case was August 2010.

>

 

I guess we can hang our hats on solar min to possibly contribute to HL blocking in order to tilt the expected generally unfavorable pattern a bit more in our favor. IMO that correlation, along with the QBO, to negative AO/NAO episodes seems very nebulous. If I was making predictions I would not give either of those factors much weight, esp in what looks to be a Nina winter. Not sure what else we got though lol.

[poolz1]

The base state argument is what we should hang our hats on, imo.  Why would we expect anything less than an Aleutian ridge/WAR combo that helps to continue the +NAO avg throughout the winter months?  We have been the recipients of this horrid setup even when everything else says we shouldn't.   This year says we should see this setup even if it wasnt the background state.  

[frd]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I guess we can hang our hats on solar min to possibly contribute to HL blocking in order to tilt the expected generally unfavorable pattern a bit more in our favor. IMO that correlation, along with the QBO, to negative AO/NAO episodes seems very nebulous. If I was making predictions I would not give either of those factors much weight, esp in what looks to be a Nina winter. Not sure what else we got though lol.

Just pointing out two contributors that might be favorable. But honestly, the correlation is not strong and we are currently out of sync with things that use to work, or could be used in a analog set,  or at the least, had exhibited some tendencies to be pro cold for our area versus warm. 

Challenges continue to mount for useful winter seasonal forecasts. 

[frd]

What ?  No way !!!!  I don't believe it,  unless they hacked Isotherm's formula. 

 

 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, frd said:

What ?  No way !!!!  I don't believe it,  unless they hacked Isotherm's formula. 

 

 

lol "possible in the future."

"need 100 times more ensemble members".

All to tell us what we already know. A legit -NAO during winter is now an urban myth.

[Rtd208]

Not to start digging into winter yet since we are still in August but Larry Cosgrove hinted that this could be another disappointing winter for cold and snow lover in our area. I have zero expectations going into the winter especially after the last couple.

[snowman19]

58 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Not to start digging into winter yet since we are still in August but Larry Cosgrove hinted that this could be another disappointing winter for cold and snow lover in our area. I have zero expectations going into the winter especially after the last couple.

Larry seems to think that this is going to be a basin-wide La Niña. The current SST configuration would give some support to that. All ENSO regions, including region 4 are dropping right now. We’re going to have to monitor whether or not this continues into November. You definitely don’t want region 4 in La Niña territory going into winter. The other things to closely watch this fall are the QBO (which rose up to neutral in July), PDO and AMO

[psuhoffman]

Right now everything looks completely awful wrt snow prospects. Everyone knows it. It’s just hard to stomach given how awful last year was. That said...sometimes the winter turns out completely different from how it looks this time of year. So nothing is set in stone. But truth is every long range clue att is lined up wrong. 

[anotherman]

[CAPE]

Track tropical. Could be epic.

When winter comes, be prepared to travel. There should still  be some really good deals on airfare.