Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,895
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Classbravo
    Newest Member
    Classbravo
    Joined

Cristobal Remnants June 9-10


Hoosier
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Wouldn't mind the faster timing.  Might as well maximize the wind potential around here with some diurnal assistance.

Talking from experience, you better be careful what you wish for. In 2008 Ike came through during the day and with help of the sun being out we had winds of 60-70mph all day long. I was without power for 2 weeks. You really don't want to go through something like that.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, snowlover2 said:

Talking from experience, you better be careful what you wish for. In 2008 Ike came through during the day and with help of the sun being out we had winds of 60-70mph all day long. I was without power for 2 weeks. You really don't want to go through something like that.

Yeah I know what can happen.  The weather weenie in me would still like to experience it lol.  It's enough to be interesting and disruptive but not cause catastrophic damage.  Threat of a tree falling on the roof here is pretty low due to how far away they are.  

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, snowlover2 said:

Looks like 12z Euro just misses a phase. Cristobal just a little too quick.

Yeah, that is a less than pristine interaction.

If we get the big phase, katy bar the door.  Even so, Euro is still pretty respectable as far as tropical remnants go.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah I know what can happen.  The weather weenie in me would still like to experience it lol.  It's enough to be interesting and disruptive but not cause catastrophic damage.  Threat of a tree falling on the roof here is pretty low due to how far away they are.  
We didnt have trees close enough to fall on the roof but Ike did make me get a new roof as we lost big sections of shingles. 81 mph peak gust and it blew close to that all day. I think we were without power for 2 or 3 days. It was pretty cool as I was out in it all day but it was a real PIA after.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


A repeat of that shifted up this way would be perfect.


.

The 1900 Galveston hurricane was a northward version of Ike.  Instead of the swath of damaging winds in the Ohio Valley, it was more in the Lakes in 1900.  Reading the old accounts, there was significant tree damage and some minor structural damage in and around northern IL.  It can happen, but it's very hard to get a system to track far enough north to put northeast IL on the right side of it.  It looks like that could happen with this one, so then it comes down to details of the phasing with the trough and the wind fields. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Hoosier said:

In a way, the "botched phase" ala Euro is still a pretty significant wind threat because of the secondary low that develops with the trailing energy.  Prolongs the departure of everything and keeps the wind threat going longer.

That's an interesting feature, Euro isn't the only one bringing another round of winds Wednesday PM either.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

850mb wind speeds progged by some of the 00Z guidance are just incredible - something never seen before during the warm season:

1096472040_ScreenShot2020-06-06at1_24_25AM.thumb.png.1ee04e5d559dc6386ebaca0db4604787.png

1300889648_ScreenShot2020-06-06at1_25_37AM.thumb.png.38fb566a00d9f12e46f50e009fd05eee.png

514979872_ScreenShot2020-06-06at1_25_08AM.thumb.png.d8d74261b44f0ec0864819879b9267ba.png

 

I wish pivotal still had Euro soundings that you didn't have to sign up for.  Would love to check those out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Northern Michigan office's take

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
248 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020
High impact weather potential: Possible extratropical remnants of
Cristobal. Record/near-record high temps Tuesday?

As was alluded to by the prior forecaster, quite the complex and
challenging forecast expected through the midweek time frame as TS
Cristobal is expected to undergo extratropical transition and trek
northeastward along the Mississippi Valley into the western Great
Lakes. Lots of uncertainty with regards to specific impacts locally
as they hinge greatly on the timing of Cristobal and the
progression/interaction of impressive troughing expected to be
draped across the Intermountain West at the start of the forecast
period. Latest NHC forecast has Cristobal making landfall along the
Gulf Coast late Sunday/Sunday night, moving into the mid-Mississippi
Valley Tuesday before treking further north into the western Great
Lakes Tuesday night-Wednesday. Latest guidance continues to suggest
that after Cristobal undergoes its extratropical transition and
potential interaction with aforementioned troughing that impressive
dynamic upper-level forcing would further deepen the cyclone as it
treks northward. If this sequence were to pan out as currently
progged, certainly the threat for heavy rain and potentially strong
winds would present themselves somewhere across the mid-upper
Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes.

However, as was alluded to above, lots of uncertainties prevail
through this time frame. The most glaring is the exceedingly rare
nature of this event (in the manner it`s currently progged), along
with how well guidance is handling a large influx of latent heat
into the ridge across the midsection of NOAM. As the prior
forecaster mentioned, if guidance is underdone in this respect,
you`d expect this to further amplify the ridge and slow the
progression of the aforementioned trough leading to less interaction
with Cristobal and a weaker remnant cyclone overall. All in all,
lots of variables at play over the next several days, but at the
very least, the threat for a potentially impactful storm system is
possible across parts of the Great Lakes by the middle of next week.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...