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N IL Area Severe threat 5-23

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4 minutes ago, pen_artist said:

Im still novice as it pertains to forecasting but I dont know if you follow Bob Waszak on Twitter but I'd say he's one of the more legit chasers in the area and he highlighted these two areas

image.png.26d7a9ef7b4578ad883dfc5f55557be6.png

 

Thank you so much!

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Bulk shear and low level lapse rates have improved dramatically over the tor watch area with Violent Tornado Parameter (VTP) up to two just south of Rockford area.  Good low level lapse rates will help any horizontal vortex to be lifted into the vertical.

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19 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Guys someone please answer, I woke up quite late to plan this super well. If you were going to set up ahead of these storms, would you drive north or south of Aurora? 

The best combo of low level shear and low cloud bases should be near the warm front as the cells move in. In Chicagoland this should end up being roughly along and south of the I-90 corridor. The lake will modify the warm front a bit. 
 

Not guaranteed to see anything but you shouldn’t have to go too far. 

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1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

The best combo of low level shear and low cloud bases should be near the warm front as the cells move in. In Chicagoland this should end up being roughly along and south of the I-90 corridor. The lake will modify the warm front a bit. 
 

Not guaranteed to see anything but you shouldn’t have to go too far. 

Sounds good. I appreciate the information!

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12 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Bulk shear and low level lapse rates have improved dramatically over the tor watch area with Violent Tornado Parameter (VTP) up to two just south of Rockford area.  Good low level lapse rates will help any horizontal vortex to be lifted into the vertical.

Is it possible that SPC's 2000Z forecast may upgrade a narrow part of the ENH area to either a hatched TOR area, and/or a MDT risk? 

If so, I say probably mostly north of I-80 and along/E of IL-26

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You can sort of infer where a locally lower threat may exist (at least tornado wise).  Waukegan, etc. in a zone close to the lake.  T/Td spreads are running a bit high in Chicago as well, though this could change with time. 

chi_sfc.gif.1a3203e26ea955ac70ba6caa175002f4.gif

 

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5 minutes ago, Tim from Springfield (IL) said:

Is it possible that SPC's 2000Z forecast may upgrade a narrow part of the ENH area to either a hatched TOR area, and/or a MDT risk? 

If so, I say probably mostly north of I-80 and along/E of IL-26

Your guess is as good as mine.  SPC already has the prob listed as moderate for the possibility of a strong tornado within the enhanced risk tornado watch box.  Again the number of storms within a geographical area basically determines the  risk level.

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19 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

You can sort of infer where a locally lower threat may exist (at least tornado wise).  Waukegan, etc. in a zone close to the lake.  T/Td spreads are running a bit high in Chicago as well, though this could change with time. 

chi_sfc.gif.1a3203e26ea955ac70ba6caa175002f4.gif

 

Yeah, the warm frontal passage is more an increase in dew points and shift in winds to SSE. The triple point will essentially pass right over the metro unless upscale growth of the current cells modifies things. 

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8 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Cell near Streator getting that look

Just curious, you mean the one north, or the one south of town? Still trying to learn to read radar. 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
157 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN WOODFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 230 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 156 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR EL PASO, OR 16  
  MILES EAST OF EUREKA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  
  NORTHEASTERN WOODFORD COUNTY, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...  
  PANOLA.  
  
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 39 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 18 AND 22

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TOG with the southern cell , this is the blob of tiny storms that formed into one supercell i was watching earlier that went T-storm warned near PIA but now has matured

another interesting cell over Lasalle county....

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE  
202 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 245 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 201 PM CDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EL PASO,  
  OR 17 MILES EAST OF EUREKA, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  

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5 minutes ago, Arishtat said:

Just curious, you mean the one north, or the one south of town? Still trying to learn to read radar. 

Even though the one to the south is the tornado producer, that storm to the north of Streator (near Ottawa) still bears watching as it is moving straight for the Chicago metro area.

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Just now, BrandonC_TX said:

Even though the one to the south is the tornado producer, that storm to the north of Streator (near Ottawa) still bears watching as it is moving straight for the Chicago metro area.

Tyvm! 

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Just now, Indystorm said:

Yes, the northern storm near Ottawa is becoming better defined and the tor warned storm south of it both need to be watched very carefully in the near term.

T-storm warned now with Possible TOR tag

 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE  
208 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  WESTERN KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  EASTERN LA SALLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  NORTHERN GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 315 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 208 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OTTAWA,  
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

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south cell still has TOG

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
210 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020  
  
ILC203-231930-  
/O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-200523T1930Z/  
WOODFORD-  
210 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT FOR  
NORTHEASTERN WOODFORD COUNTY...  
      
AT 208 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR THE WOODFORD-  
LIVINGSTON COUNTY LINE BETWEEN PANOLA AND FLANAGAN, MOVING NORTHEAST   
AT 30 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. 

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I have growing concern for Chicago metro area with the storms to the sw as helicity is better in Chi town area  and we already have report of the tornado to the sw near Pontiac.  Also as has been mentioned the triple point will be moving in that direction as well.

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2 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

I have growing concern for Chicago metro area with the storms to the sw as helicity is better in that area and we already have report of the tornado to the sw near Pontiac.

Agreed. Will have to watch for localized flash flooding again too. Flow lines up w the front for a few hours this evening.  Some 3”+ radar estimates are showing up with the ongoing activity. 

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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL  
227 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTH CENTRAL JO DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  
  CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  
* UNTIL 315 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 227 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SPRINGBROOK, OR  
  10 MILES NORTHEAST OF MAQUOKETA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  BELLEVUE AROUND 250 PM CDT.  
  HANOVER AROUND 300 PM CDT.  
  ELIZABETH AROUND 310 PM CDT.  

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I wonder is Cyclone chased that first cell which is near Rockford now or  went back home?...if home he has this

 

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL  
230 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020  
  
ILC015-195-232015-  
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-200523T2015Z/  
WHITESIDE IL-CARROLL IL-  
230 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR  
NORTHEASTERN WHITESIDE AND SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTIES...  
      
AT 230 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR EMERSON, OR NEAR  
MORRISON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL  
251 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020  
  
ILC015-195-232015-  
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-200523T2015Z/  
WHITESIDE IL-CARROLL IL-  
251 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR  
NORTHEASTERN WHITESIDE AND SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTIES...  
      
AT 251 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MILLEDGEVILLE, OR  
9 MILES NORTH OF STERLING, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  

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   Mesoscale Discussion 0685
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0251 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

   Areas affected...northern Illinois...southern Wisconsin...eastern
   Iowa...and far northwestern Indiana

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 207...

   Valid 231951Z - 232115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 207 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 207.  Severe storms
   are expected to impact that Chicago Metro area over the next 1-2
   hours or so.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered supercells have evolved across much of WW 207
   over the past couple of hours.  A few of these storms have a history
   of producing tornadoes (particularly in eastern Iowa and near
   Whiteside, Woodford and Livingston Counties in Illinois).  The
   storms are in an environment that has become increasingly conducive
   for tornadoes, with low-level warming and moistening contributing to
   around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE.  Shear appears to be maximized near the
   warm front across northwestern and north-central Illinois, and
   supercells in that region may continue to produce tornadoes,
   damaging wind gusts, and occasional 1-inch hail stones over the next
   couple hours. 

   A separate cell over Kendall and northern Grundy counties in
   Illinois has had occasionally strong cyclonic wind signatures at
   times and may pose a damaging wind/isolated tornado threat as it
   approaches the southern Chicago Metro area over the next 1-2 hours.

   Farther south, newer cells are attempting to organize across central
   Illinois, and these trends may continue given sustained surface
   covergence along an axis from near MLI to BMI.  West of this axis,
   surface winds have veered to more of a westerly component in tandem
   with drying aloft and subsidence.  These areas have been suggested
   for clearing from WW 207 (see the most recent Watch Status product
   for more information).

   ..Cook/Hart.. 05/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   43109217 43269127 43348977 43268820 42948754 42398734
               41798695 41048682 40488676 40208729 40118837 40008919
               40118988 40359010 40919035 41399061 41589119 41639169
               41999207 42519226 42799226 43109217 

 

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