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janetjanet998

N IL Area Severe threat 5-23

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nice little compact low over IA....2 rounds/spokes of storms possible

the first spoke is now over the MS river as the strong May sun heats things up this morning more storms should develop south from this spoke and move across N IL starting around noon

winds are backed SE....a 30-35 kt LLJ and a 50-55kt 500 MB jet max ..very low LCL's

it is possible  a second round could develop later this afternoon too....

06Z SPC outlook had a slight risk with 5% TOR probs..but 11z HRRR breaks out what looks like many discrete rotating storms

 

 

 

 

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Could be a big day possibly. No morning convection to ruin things for once 

Filtered sun here in IKK. Feels like the best start to a stormy day in awhile

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10% TOR probs

  
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0754 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020  
  
VALID 231300Z - 241200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...EASTERN IOWA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONISN...  

  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF  
THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH TORNADOES, WILL CROSS  
PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA, NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM  
MIDDAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL  
AND SEVERE WIND WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN GREAT  
PLAINS.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS, A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN  
CONUS, WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES (AND TWO SUBSYNOPTIC-SCALE  
CYCLONES) PENETRATING THE MEAN RIDGING TO THE EAST.  THE FIRST OF  
THOSE CYCLONES -- NOW APPARENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER PA  
AND PARTS OF ADJOINING STATES -- WILL MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE MID-  
ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  THE OTHER -- CURRENTLY  
CENTERED OVER IA -- HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVELY GENERATED  
VORTICITY.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD  
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING, THEN AS  
AN OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WI AND LAKE MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN  
LOWER MI BY 12Z TOMORROW.  TO ITS SOUTH, A SMALLER SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
-- INITIALLY OVER EASTERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX --  
SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TO EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS  
THE MID-SOUTH REGION.  THIS INCLUDES AN EMBEDDED MCV EVIDENT IN  
RADAR REFLECTIVITY COMPOSITES OVER SOUTHEASTERN OK.  
  
IN THE WEST, THE MAIN CYCLONE/VORTICITY MAX OF THE BROADER TROUGH  
WAS APPARENT OVER THE ID/UT BORDER, AND SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY  
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN MT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SEVERAL LOW-  
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES -- SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/ENHANCED, WILL  
EJECT FROM THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION, IN A BROAD FETCH OF  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERING MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/  
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.   
  
AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHWESTERN IA, STACKED  
UNDER THE MIDLEVEL CYCLONE CENTER, AND SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF MN AND INTO ADJOINING WI THROUGH  
EARLY EVENING.  A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM THE LOW  
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN PARTS OF IL/IN,  
MOVING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN WI BY 00Z.  A WEAK COLD FRONT,  
ARCHING SOUTHWARD/SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW, WILL STALL THEN MOVE  
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN KS AND  
WESTERN/CENTRAL MO.  AN EXTENSIVE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD  
STALL AND WEAKEN ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN TN TO NORTHERN LA AND THE  
ARLKATEX REGION, INTO CENTRAL/NORTHWEST TX.  AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE  
BETWEEN CYS-LHX SHOULD CONSOLIDATE TODAY AND MOVE TO EAST-CENTRAL/  
NORTHEASTERN CO BY 00Z.  A DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD OVER THE HIGH  
PLAINS AGAIN TODAY, REACHING FROM ITS INTERSECTION WITH THE FRONT,  
JUST EAST OF THE LOW, ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KS, THE EASTERN TX/OK  
PANHANDLES, AND THE PERMIAN BASIN BY LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE BEING  
MODULATED BY OUTFLOW FROM NEARBY CONVECTION.  ANOTHER WEAK COLD  
FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN WY  
AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS, REACHING NORTH-CENTRAL ND, THE BLACK HILLS,  
AND NEAR THE WY/NE LINE BY 00Z.   
   
..EASTERN IA TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY  
  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA  
AND NORTHWESTERN IL FROM MID/LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID  
AFTERNOON.  AMIDST WEAK MLCINH, ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM IN EPISODIC,  
BROKEN ARCS, THEN MOVE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE  
REMAINDER OF THE IA/IL/WI PART OF THE OUTLOOK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION, MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED IN NATURE,  
SHOULD FORM FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IL AND MOVE EASTWARD TO  
NORTHEASTWARD.  SEVERAL OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME  
SUPERCELLS, CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING TORNADOES.  THE  
POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY DENSE COVERAGE OF SUCH CONVECTION DRIVES THE  
INCREASE IN TORNADO PROBABILITIES FOR THIS OUTLOOK.   
  
AS THE COMPACT CYCLONE APPROACHES, A CHANNEL OF DIFLUENT AND  
INCREASING MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, AND RELATED STRENGTHENING DEEP  
SHEAR, WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.  THIS WILL BE  
CONTERMINOUS WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE DCVA/ASCENT AND DIURNAL  
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF THE FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.   
MEANWHILE, THE MASS RESPONSE TO THE PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL  
STRENGTHEN BOTH SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS, WITH  
FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS IN THE EASTERN SECTOR OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE,  
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT.  WARM ADVECTION AND DIURNAL HEATING  
WITHIN A FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BOOST MLCAPE TO THE  
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN IL, AND 500-1500 J/KG  
BENDING BACK INTO A NARROWING CORRIDOR CLOSER TO THE DEEP-LAYER LOW.  
ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE STRONG (GENERALLY  
10-15 KT), AND THE HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT PROGGED BY MOST MODELS TO BE  
EXTREMELY LARGE, THEY SHOULD BE WELL-CURVED WITH SUFFICIENT SRH  
(EFFECTIVE SRH OF 150-250 J/KG) TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND TORNADO  
POTENTIAL.  THREATS FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL EXTEND FARTHER TO  
THE NORTH, EAST AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH, WITH DEEP SHEAR DIMINISHING  
MARKEDLY TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND STORM MODES TRENDING  
MULTICELLULAR THERE.   
 

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first T-storm warning of the event

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL  
1028 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTH CENTRAL ROCK ISLAND COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  
  EASTERN MERCER COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  
  WEST CENTRAL HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT.  
  
* AT 1027 AM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BURGESS, OR  
  7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALEDO, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
  IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  MOLINE, ROCK ISLAND, MILAN, COLONA, COAL VALLEY, BURGESS, VIOLA,  
  MATHERVILLE, SHERRARD, REYNOLDS, OAK GROVE, CABLE, SHALE CITY,  
  TAYLOR RIDGE, BODEN, PREEMPTION, SUNNY HILL ESTATES, WANLOCK, COYNE  
  CENTER AND GILCHRIST.  
  
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...  

 

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  
1037 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020  
   
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION  
  
1034 AM CDT  
  
GOES WATER VAPOR CHANNELS THIS MORNING SHOW OUR COMPACT UPPER   
LOW/MCV NOW CENTERED NEAR KDSM. JUST AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE  
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A RATHER IMPRESSIVE ATTENDANT   
UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX UP TO AROUND 85 KT ACROSS MO AND IL. THE   
12Z ILX RAOB CORROBORATES THIS, WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND OF 84 KT   
SAMPLED AT 300 MB. MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA  
ARE WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AS OF 15Z,   
WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT   
WAS ANALYZED AT 15Z RUNNING FROM THE LOW NEAR KDSM, EAST-  
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST IA AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF I-74   
OVER CENTRAL IL.  
  
OVERALL, THE THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY  
EVENING. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO FAR   
NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT  
INCREASES OVERHEAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER   
DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SURFACE   
BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL  
DESTABILIZATION RESULTS IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. THIS   
IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEING ENHANCED BY THE STRONG   
UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL SUPPORT A NOTEWORTHY THREAT OF SEVERE   
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING   
(ROUGHLY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM).   
  
ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, INCLUDING A   
NOTEWORTHY THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL  
SHEAR WITH BACKED SURFACE FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT  
OVER FAR NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONGOING ARC OF WARM AIR   
ADVECTION INDUCED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN IA WILL   
LIKELY BECOME SURFACE BASED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT   
APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL IL. ONCE THIS OCCURS, NORTHEASTWARD   
MOVING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN BROKEN ARCS WILL BE PROBABLE   
ACROSS NORTHERN IL THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE   
MUCH OF THE AREA IS UNDER A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY, THE  
HIGHEST THREAT COULD END UP BEING ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-55  
CORRIDOR.   
  
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS, BUT THE PROGRESSIVE  
NATURE TO THEM SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT FLASH  
FLOODING CONCERNS.   
  
EXPECT THE THREAT OF STORMS TO BEGIN TO WANE ACROSS MUCH OF THE   
AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE   
POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OVER   
EAST CENTRAL IL AND NORTHWESTERN IN ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL JET.   
  
KJB  
  

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There's two notable arcs showing up on vis atm.  The lead arc is a broken line of elevated hailers from the nose of Iowa down into west-central IL.  The second arc is from central into southeast IA.  That one only has a few scattered showers with it so far.  Surface winds are backed better ahead of the lead/elevated arc, but surface winds are still decently back ahead of the IA arc.  The LOT discussion mentions that the lead/elevated arc may potentially become surface-based, and could end up being the main show.  Since there's no sign of those storms weakening, and the environment out ahead of it is only getting better, I see no reason why that may not be the case.  Can definitely see the IA arc become a nice tor producer too once it gets going.  It's back closer to the vort max and will have plenty of instability to work with.  Can definitely envision a whole bunch of tors with that compact spiral band as it lifts through northeast/eastern IA, and up into southwest WI.  Should be a fun day.  I'm still not sure if I'm gonna play the lead arc, or take a shot at the IA arc.  

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0680  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1129 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IOWA INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
ILLINOIS  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE   
  
VALID 231629Z - 231830Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR  
THE QUAD CITIES AND ALSO FARTHER WEST BETWEEN DES MOINES AND CEDAR  
RAPIDS.  AS STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED, AN INCREASING TORNADO AND  
DAMAGING-WIND THREAT WILL EVOLVE.  
  
DISCUSSION...LIFT WITH AND ADVANCING MID-LEVEL LOW AND  
INSOLATION/SURFACE HEATING AIDING IN A GRADUAL EXPANSION IN  
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS MORNING - PARTICULARLY IN A COUPLE OF BANDS  
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.  A FEW ADDITIONAL  
UPDRAFTS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS NEAR QUINCY.   
THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE ADVANCING MID/UPPER LOW MIGRATES  
EASTWARD IN TANDEM WITH A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.  A SURFACE  
LOW CENTERED NEAR DES MOINES WILL AID IN KEEPING SURFACE WINDS  
BACKED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING - ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN  
ILLINOIS.   DESPITE MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW (GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-30  
KNOTS AREAWIDE) AND MUCAPE ONLY REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE  
DAY, BACKED SURFACE WINDS AND VEERING KINEMATIC PROFILES WITH HEIGHT  
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR CELLS IN THIS REGIME TO ROTATE.  AS CELLS  
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEY WILL  
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED AND POSE MORE OF A THREAT FOR  
TORNADOES AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  SOME HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR  
NEAR THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.  
  
..COOK/HART.. 05/23/2020  

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3 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

watching those small cells trying to organize SW-SSW of me near Havana....track would take them right across PIA Metro as they move up along the IL river

Are you going to actively or armchair chase today since you are in the enhanced area?  Thanks for all your updates.  Good luck with the IL river flooding as it moves downstream as well.

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7 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Are you going to actively or armchair chase today since you are in the enhanced area?  Thanks for all your updates.  Good luck with the IL river flooding as it moves downstream as well.

 

Just arm chair "chase"....might drive a mile or two with the incoming cells

Last Memorial day a nice spinning (Tor warned) wall cloud passed almost right above me about 1/2 mile NW

IL river crested here yesterday at 27.91 #7 on record and is still at 27.6

 

 

 

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Just now, janetjanet998 said:

 

Just arm chair "chase"....might drive a mile or two with the incoming cells

Last Memorial day a nice spinning (Tor warned) wall cloud passed almost right above me about 1/2 mile NW

IL river crested here yesterday at 27.91 

 

 

 

I was fortunate to see a confirmed EF-0 tornado up at Dyer IN last year on May 27 as I was visiting relatives.  Wasn't even chasing.

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Those cells from Quad Cities to Peoria to Terre Haute and west of Indpls are moving quickly ne along the WF.  I think it is sw of that line where altocumulus streets are starting to show on satellite that we will have to watch for action later on today as well.

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2 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Looks like Cyclone just got hammered ne of Quad Cities.

Tornado possible tagged

UUS53 KDVN 231713  
SVRDVN  
ILC015-195-231815-  
/O.NEW.KDVN.SV.W.0053.200523T1713Z-200523T1815Z/  
  
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL  
1213 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  WHITESIDE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  
  SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 115 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 1212 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER ERIE, OR 10  
  MILES SOUTH OF MORRISON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  

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IA

TORDVN  
IAC031-103-231800-  
/O.NEW.KDVN.TO.W.0013.200523T1718Z-200523T1800Z/  
  
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL  
1218 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  WEST CENTRAL CEDAR COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  
* UNTIL 100 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 1214 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR IOWA CITY, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  

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2 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Looks like Cyclone just got hammered ne of Quad Cities.

Just had 1" diameter hail for about 2 minutes, and 1.27" of rain.  There was a wall cloud that passed just southeast.  Took a few crappy cell pics.  Now I'm gonna try to catch up to it and chase lit lol.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 207  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1235 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  EASTERN IOWA  
  NORTHERN ILLINOIS  
  NORTHWEST INDIANA  
  SOUTHERN WISCONSIN  
  LAKE MICHIGAN  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM  
  UNTIL 800 PM CDT.  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES  
    POSSIBLE  
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE  
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
  
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS  
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.  THESE STORMS WILL PERSIST  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.  
 THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL POSE A RISK OF TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS,  
AND HAIL.  

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL  
1234 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020  
  
IAC031-103-231800-  
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-200523T1800Z/  
CEDAR IA-JOHNSON IA-  
1234 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR WEST  
CENTRAL CEDAR AND NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES...  
      
AT 1234 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SOLON, OR 7  
MILES NORTHWEST OF WEST BRANCH, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. 

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL  
1245 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020  
  
IAC031-103-231800-  
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-200523T1800Z/  
CEDAR IA-JOHNSON IA-  
1245 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR WEST  
CENTRAL CEDAR AND NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES...  
          
AT 1245 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SOLON, OR 8  
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MECHANICSVILLE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL  
1250 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHWESTERN CEDAR COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  SOUTHWESTERN JONES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  
* UNTIL 130 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 1250 PM CDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LISBON,  
  OR NEAR MECHANICSVILLE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

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6 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Guys someone please answer, I woke up quite late to plan this super well. If you were going to set up ahead of these storms, would you drive north or south of Aurora? 

Im still novice as it pertains to forecasting but I dont know if you follow Bob Waszak on Twitter but I'd say he's one of the more legit chasers in the area and he highlighted these two areas

image.png.26d7a9ef7b4578ad883dfc5f55557be6.png

 

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east QC metro

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL  
1259 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN ROCK ISLAND COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  
  SOUTHWESTERN WHITESIDE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  
  NORTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  
  SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  
* UNTIL 145 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 1258 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER EAST MOLINE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  

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