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Tallis Rockwell

Severe Weather for 4/19-4/23

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15 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Towers going up in eastern Dallas county. One just east of here blew up quick. Would send pic but the attachment is too big

Sidenote: I noticed this as well, MD out for the area as well

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EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
633 PM CDT WED APR 22 2020  
  
TXC457-222345-  
/O.CON.KLCH.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-200422T2345Z/  
TYLER TX-  
633 PM CDT WED APR 22 2020  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR  
NORTHWESTERN TYLER COUNTY...  
          
AT 633 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS  
LOCATED NEAR CHESTER, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.  
  
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  

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The TX storm is heading towards Jasper, completely pristine environment, high STPs. It appears that the previous tornado, which if you look at the damage pictures and videos coming in on snap and twitter, was at least high end EF3, and was likely an EF4. The population in Seven Oaks is only 111, but that appeared to have been a direct hit. Also, this thing is heading for Jasper. As for weakening...it appears that outflow from the storm was looped back around and the air was still unstable enough to promote precipitation development which cut off the tornadic inflow. Super classic tornado cycling. The cell remains isolated, so, if it cycles, it'll generate a new low-level circulation to the southwest. There is no lack of available energy or shear, and nothing is holding it back. It may well cycle right now but I don't think it's going away in the near future. Circulation remains quite strong. I'm cycling back and forth between KPOE and HCX. It'll likely produce again shortly. 

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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
643 PM CDT WED APR 22 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN TYLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
  NORTHERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 715 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 642 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED OVER COLMESNEIL, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! 

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Just now, Moderately Unstable said:

which if you look at the damage pictures and videos coming in on snap and twitter, was at least high end EF3, and was likely an EF4

The motion shown in the videos was certainly indicative of a powerful tornado; do you have specific examples of damage photos/videos that are evident of that sort of rating? I haven't found too much on that yet

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1 minute ago, TexMexWx said:

The motion shown in the videos was certainly indicative of a powerful tornado; do you have specific examples of damage photos/videos that are evident of that sort of rating? I haven't found too much on that yet

I think they are basing it off of SPC's radar-based judgement.

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Someone stated in the thread for 4/23 that the monster cell in SE TX and the one near the Red River could be/are already long-tracking cells, seems about right.

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Just now, jpeters3 said:

I think they are basing it off of SPC's radar-based judgement.

Forgot about the MD oops, yeah I remember it now.

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When the storm was near Groveton TX, the radar showed 60 dBz at 40,000. That must be a massive updraft and large hail. Radar-based hail estimations were up to 3.4"

JS3VO5g.png

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6 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

The motion shown in the videos was certainly indicative of a powerful tornado; do you have specific examples of damage photos/videos that are evident of that sort of rating? I haven't found too much on that yet

Well, here's the link to snapchat, as was linked above: https://map.snapchat.com/ttp/snap/W7_EDlXWTBiXAEEniNoMPwAAYbrbdlJLTjOtAAXGkM9xgAXGkM9oXAO1OAA/@30.891044,-94.751369,9.66z. I'm looking at the damage, the atmospheric environment the tornado was going through, the height debris was lifted to (around 25k feet), a couple of the videos suggest subvorticies (which would have been the spots you'd see the EF4 damage here). SPC did note they thought the environment was supportive of EF3 intensity so I think that's relatively easy to conclude. I'm basing EF4 off of the height debris was lifted to coupled with the initial images of damage, which I strongly doubt are anything close to the WORST damage that occurred. 

 

Additional: 

https://map.snapchat.com/ttp/snap/W7_EDlXWTBiXAEEniNoMPwAAYCRF0KopX8ELtAXGkMO2AAXGkMOq_AO1OAA/@30.901073,-94.817562,11.18z

https://map.snapchat.com/ttp/snap/W7_EDlXWTBiXAEEniNoMPwAAYTzt7Gl3gH_HsAXGkIc8qAXGkIcz4AO1OAA/@30.901073,-94.817562,11.18z

https://map.snapchat.com/ttp/snap/W7_EDlXWTBiXAEEniNoMPwAAYaxvwtpDASDYYAXGkLfYFAXGkLfM2AO1OAA/@30.901073,-94.817562,11.18z

https://map.snapchat.com/ttp/snap/W7_EDlXWTBiXAEEniNoMPwAAY7StDf0ncdRNdAXGkJLHtAXGkJK9sAO1OAA/@30.901073,-94.817562,11.18z

https://map.snapchat.com/ttp/snap/W7_EDlXWTBiXAEEniNoMPwAAYey_3B0Y16OgxAXGkI8DXAXGkI75LAO1OAA/@30.901073,-94.817562,11.18z

https://map.snapchat.com/ttp/snap/W7_EDlXWTBiXAEEniNoMPwAAYIsa_X-XJHRbsAXGkJFjrAXGkJFaiAO1OAA/@30.901073,-94.817562,11.18z

https://map.snapchat.com/ttp/snap/W7_EDlXWTBiXAEEniNoMPwAAYGoiCfPtp360dAXGkJB6hAXGkJBhUAO1OAA/@30.901073,-94.817562,11.18z

https://map.snapchat.com/ttp/snap/W7_EDlXWTBiXAEEniNoMPwAAYCu_x8p61xnFtAXGkIrVYAXGkIrG4AO1OAA/@30.901073,-94.817562,11.18z

https://map.snapchat.com/ttp/snap/W7_EDlXWTBiXAEEniNoMPwAAYDSmO1clrGur0AXGkIpUxAXGkIpILAO1OAA/@30.901073,-94.817562,11.18z

https://map.snapchat.com/ttp/snap/W7_EDlXWTBiXAEEniNoMPwAAYvyMS9C9pSTIqAXGkIta3AXGkItSTAO1OAA/@30.901073,-94.817562,11.18z

 

 

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red river cell

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
657 PM CDT WED APR 22 2020  
  
TXC277-230045-  
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0027.000000T0000Z-200423T0045Z/  
LAMAR TX-  
657 PM CDT WED APR 22 2020  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR  
NORTHEASTERN LAMAR COUNTY...  
      
AT 655 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CAMP MAXEY AND   
POWDERLY OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF HUGO, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND TWO INCH HAIL.  
  

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7 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Jasper TX might be in serious trouble 

Yes. Jasper is in serious trouble. That couplet is nasty, and it is getting stronger with each scan, and it's heading right for them. Once someone can confirm this visually, this is one of the times an emergency warning is warranted. People need to get to shelter, now. 

 

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1 minute ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Yes. Jasper is in serious trouble. Not might be. They might not get a direct hit, but the couplet is nasty, and it is getting stronger with each scan, and it's heading right for them. Once someone can confirm this visually, this is one of the times an emergency warning is warranted. People need to get to shelter, now. 

 

It might pass just north of them but the general motion has been predominately east thus far. 

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EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
657 PM CDT WED APR 22 2020  
  
TXC241-457-230015-  
/O.CON.KLCH.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-200423T0015Z/  
TYLER TX-JASPER TX-  
657 PM CDT WED APR 22 2020  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR  
NORTHEASTERN TYLER AND NORTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES...  
          
AT 657 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS  
LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EBENEZER, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.  
  
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

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